Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

McNeese State Cowboys v Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks

Kickoff: 2026-08-29 23:00 UTC

Final: McNeese State Cowboys 27–38 Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

11 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

McNeese State Cowboys (Local)

Prediction 21.13%4.73fair odd
EV +5.67%
Edge +1.13%
Kelly +1.42%
Growth +0.080%

assuming max odds 5.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.09%20.98%21.19%22.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.254.524.505.0023.53%22.12%22.22%20.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks (Visit)

Prediction 78.87%1.27fair odd
EV -3.78%
Edge -3.10%
Kelly -17.20%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.22

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
77.70%79.02%78.81%80.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.141.211.221.2287.72%82.89%81.97%81.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: McNeese State Cowboys (Local): 21.13%; Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks (Visit): 78.87%. For McNeese State Cowboys (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.73. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.67%.

Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Hard Rock Bet🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV +5.67%E +1.13%K +1.42%G +0.080%1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -6.94%E -5.88%K -38.55%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-29 22:34
theScore Bet🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.19%EV +1.44%E +0.301%K +0.380%G +0.005%1.14I 87.72%NM 80.81%EV -10.09%E -8.85%K -72.09%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-29 22:15
FanDuel🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.83%EV -2.78%E -0.605%K -0.773%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 79.17%EV -4.57%E -3.78%K -21.77%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-29 22:40
BetRivers🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV -4.90%E -1.09%K -1.40%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -3.78%E -3.10%K -17.20%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-29 15:25
Bally Bet🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV -4.90%E -1.09%K -1.40%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -3.78%E -3.10%K -17.20%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-29 15:25
betPARX🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV -4.90%E -1.09%K -1.40%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -3.78%E -3.10%K -17.20%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-29 15:29
BetMGM🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV -4.90%E -1.09%K -1.40%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -3.78%E -3.10%K -17.20%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-29 18:14
Caesars🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -4.90%E -1.09%K -1.40%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -5.36%E -4.47%K -26.80%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-29 15:30
Fliff🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -9.12%E -2.12%K -2.76%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -3.78%E -3.10%K -17.20%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-29 22:55
DraftKings🎯4.28I 23.36%NM 22.18%EV -9.55%E -2.23%K -2.91%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.82%EV -3.78%E -3.10%K -17.20%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-29 20:25
BetUS🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -10.18%E -2.40%K -3.13%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -3.78%E -3.10%K -17.20%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-29 20:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.