Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Maine Black Bears v Merrimack Warriors

Kickoff: 2026-09-12 21:01 UTC

Final: Maine Black Bears 14–23 Merrimack Warriors

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

78%

22%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Maine Black Bears (Local)

Prediction 77.68%1.29fair odd

EV -3.67%

Edge -2.96%

Kelly -15.30%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.24

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

76.78%77.77%77.55%78.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.171.221.221.2485.47%81.97%81.97%80.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Merrimack Warriors (Visit)

Prediction 22.32%4.48fair odd

EV +0.421%

Edge +0.094%

Kelly +0.120%

Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 4.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

21.01%22.23%22.45%23.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

4.104.324.404.5024.39%23.17%22.73%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Maine Black Bears (Local): 77.68%; Merrimack Warriors (Visit): 22.32%. For Merrimack Warriors (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.48. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.421%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
Hard Rock Bet🎯	1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -6.00%E -4.96%K -28.58%G +0.000%	4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV +0.421%E +0.094%K +0.120%G +0.001%	4.9%	2026-09-12 14:20
BetRivers🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -5.23%E -4.28%K -23.75%G +0.000%	4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -1.81%E -0.411%K -0.532%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-09-12 20:29
Bally Bet🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -5.23%E -4.28%K -23.75%G +0.000%	4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -1.81%E -0.411%K -0.532%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-09-12 20:29
betPARX🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -5.23%E -4.28%K -23.75%G +0.000%	4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -1.81%E -0.411%K -0.532%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-09-12 20:30
theScore Bet🎯	1.17I 85.47%NM 78.99%EV -9.11%E -7.79%K -53.59%G +0.000%	4.40I 22.73%NM 21.01%EV -1.81%E -0.411%K -0.532%G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-09-12 14:20
Caesars🎯	1.23I 81.30%NM 77.55%EV -4.45%E -3.62%K -19.34%G +0.000%	4.25I 23.53%NM 22.45%EV -5.16%E -1.21%K -1.59%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-09-12 14:20
BetMGM🎯	1.24I 80.65%NM 77.21%EV -3.67%E -2.96%K -15.30%G +0.000%	4.20I 23.81%NM 22.79%EV -6.27%E -1.49%K -1.96%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-09-12 21:00
Fliff🎯	1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -4.45%E -3.62%K -19.34%G +0.000%	4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -6.27%E -1.49%K -1.96%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-09-12 18:54
FanDuel🎯	1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -3.67%E -2.96%K -15.30%G +0.000%	4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -8.51%E -2.07%K -2.74%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-09-12 18:50

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.