Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Maine Black Bears v Merrimack Warriors

2026-09-12 21:01 UTC — NCAAF FCS

Head to Head

3 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

77%

23%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Maine Black Bears (Local)

Prediction 77.49%1.29fair odd

EV -5.46%

Edge -4.48%

Kelly -24.82%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.22

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

77.49%77.49%77.49%77.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.211.221.221.2282.64%82.19%81.97%81.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Merrimack Warriors (Visit)

Prediction 22.51%4.44fair odd

EV -4.34%

Edge -1.02%

Kelly -1.33%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

22.30%22.51%22.51%22.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

4.204.224.204.2523.81%23.72%23.81%23.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Maine Black Bears (Local): 77.49%; Merrimack Warriors (Visit): 22.51%. For Merrimack Warriors (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.44. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 4.25, with an expected value of -4.34%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Hard Rock Bet🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -5.46%E -4.48%K -24.82%G +0.000%	4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -4.34%E -1.02%K -1.33%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-09-09 03:04
FanDuel🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -5.46%E -4.48%K -24.82%G +0.000%	4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -5.46%E -1.30%K -1.71%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-09-09 00:29
ReBet🎯	1.21I 82.64%NM 77.63%EV -6.24%E -5.15%K -29.70%G +0.000%	4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%EV -5.46%E -1.30%K -1.71%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-09-09 01:09

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.