Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lehigh Mountain Hawks v William and Mary Tribe

Kickoff: 2026-09-12 18:01 UTC

Final: Lehigh Mountain Hawks 44–20 William and Mary Tribe

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

79%

21%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lehigh Mountain Hawks (Local)

Prediction 79.23%1.26fair odd

EV -3.34%

Edge -2.74%

Kelly -15.18%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.22

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

77.70%79.25%79.13%80.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.181.201.191.2284.75%83.61%84.03%81.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

William and Mary Tribe (Visit)

Prediction 20.77%4.81fair odd

EV +3.85%

Edge +0.769%

Kelly +0.962%

Growth +0.037%

assuming max odds 5.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

19.09%20.75%20.87%22.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

4.204.634.635.0023.81%21.62%21.62%20.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Lehigh Mountain Hawks (Local): 79.23%; William and Mary Tribe (Visit): 20.77%. For William and Mary Tribe (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.81. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.85%.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
BetRivers🎯	1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -6.51%E -5.52%K -36.16%G +0.000%	5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV +3.85%E +0.769%K +0.962%G +0.037%	4.7%	2026-09-12 17:39
Bally Bet🎯	1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -6.51%E -5.52%K -36.16%G +0.000%	5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV +3.85%E +0.769%K +0.962%G +0.037%	4.7%	2026-09-12 17:39
betPARX🎯	1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -6.51%E -5.52%K -36.16%G +0.000%	5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV +3.85%E +0.769%K +0.962%G +0.037%	4.7%	2026-09-12 17:40
FanDuel🎯	1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -6.51%E -5.52%K -36.16%G +0.000%	4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV +1.77%E +0.361%K +0.454%G +0.008%	5.2%	2026-09-12 14:20
BetMGM🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 79.83%EV -4.92%E -4.10%K -24.62%G +0.000%	4.75I 21.05%NM 20.17%EV -1.35%E -0.283%K -0.359%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-09-12 16:10
Fliff🎯	1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -4.13%E -3.41%K -19.67%G +0.000%	4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -6.54%E -1.45%K -1.87%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-09-12 17:39
Caesars🎯	1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -4.13%E -3.41%K -19.67%G +0.000%	4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -8.61%E -1.96%K -2.53%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-09-12 16:18
Hard Rock Bet🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -3.34%E -2.74%K -15.18%G +0.000%	4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -11.73%E -2.76%K -3.61%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-09-12 15:34
DraftKings🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -3.34%E -2.74%K -15.18%G +0.000%	4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -11.73%E -2.76%K -3.61%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-09-12 14:19
theScore Bet🎯	1.18I 84.75%NM 78.07%EV -6.51%E -5.52%K -36.16%G +0.000%	4.20I 23.81%NM 21.93%EV -12.77%E -3.04%K -3.99%G +0.000%	8.6%	2026-09-12 15:35

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.