Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Idaho Vandals v Montana State Bobcats

Kickoff: 2026-10-03 02:45 UTC

Final: Idaho Vandals 35–34 Montana State Bobcats

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

18%

82%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Idaho Vandals (Local)

Prediction 17.66%5.66fair odd

EV +10.40%

Edge +1.66%

Kelly +1.98%

Growth +0.206%

assuming max odds 6.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

15.31%17.56%17.56%19.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

4.755.275.036.2521.05%18.99%19.90%16.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Montana State Bobcats (Visit)

Prediction 82.34%1.21fair odd

EV -2.84%

Edge -2.41%

Kelly -15.80%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.18

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

80.37%82.44%82.44%84.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.101.151.151.1890.91%86.66%86.58%84.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Idaho Vandals (Local): 17.66%; Montana State Bobcats (Visit): 82.34%. For Idaho Vandals (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.66. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +10.40%.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
BetMGM🎯	6.25I 16.00%NM 15.31%EV +10.40%E +1.66%K +1.98%G +0.206%	1.13I 88.50%NM 84.69%EV -6.96%E -6.16%K -53.54%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-10-03 02:40
ReBet🎯	5.90I 16.95%NM 16.31%EV +4.22%E +0.715%K +0.861%G +0.036%	1.15I 86.96%NM 83.69%EV -5.31%E -4.62%K -35.42%G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-10-03 02:25
theScore Bet🎯	5.75I 17.39%NM 16.06%EV +1.57%E +0.273%K +0.330%G +0.005%	1.10I 90.91%NM 83.94%EV -9.43%E -8.57%K -94.30%G +0.000%	8.3%	2026-10-03 02:14
FanDuel🎯	5.40I 18.52%NM 17.56%EV -4.61%E -0.855%K -1.05%G +0.000%	1.15I 86.96%NM 82.44%EV -5.31%E -4.62%K -35.42%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-10-03 02:30
Fliff🎯	5.05I 19.80%NM 18.81%EV -10.80%E -2.14%K -2.67%G +0.000%	1.17I 85.47%NM 81.19%EV -3.67%E -3.13%K -21.57%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-10-03 02:30
Hard Rock Bet🎯	5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -11.68%E -2.34%K -2.92%G +0.000%	1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -2.84%E -2.41%K -15.80%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-10-03 02:20
DraftKings🎯	4.91I 20.37%NM 19.38%EV -13.27%E -2.70%K -3.39%G +0.000%	1.18I 84.75%NM 80.62%EV -2.84%E -2.41%K -15.80%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-10-02 22:49
betPARX🎯	4.90I 20.41%NM 19.28%EV -13.45%E -2.74%K -3.45%G +0.000%	1.17I 85.47%NM 80.72%EV -3.67%E -3.13%K -21.57%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-10-03 02:40
Bally Bet🎯	4.75I 21.05%NM 19.63%EV -16.10%E -3.39%K -4.29%G +0.000%	1.16I 86.21%NM 80.37%EV -4.49%E -3.87%K -28.06%G +0.000%	7.3%	2026-10-03 02:40
BetRivers🎯	4.75I 21.05%NM 19.49%EV -16.10%E -3.39%K -4.29%G +0.000%	1.15I 86.96%NM 80.51%EV -5.31%E -4.62%K -35.42%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-10-03 02:40

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.