Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Idaho State Bengals v San Diego Toreros

Kickoff: 2026-09-12 22:01 UTC

Final: Idaho State Bengals 59–17 San Diego Toreros

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

91%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Idaho State Bengals (Local)

Prediction 91.41%1.09fair odd

EV -3.10%

Edge -2.93%

Kelly -51.71%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.06

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

90.14%91.33%91.36%93.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.021.041.041.0698.04%96.36%96.15%94.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

San Diego Toreros (Visit)

Prediction 8.59%11.65fair odd

EV +28.81%

Edge +1.92%

Kelly +2.06%

Growth +0.593%

assuming max odds 15.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

6.37%8.67%8.64%9.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

9.6011.8411.2515.0010.42%8.45%8.89%6.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Idaho State Bengals (Local): 91.41%; San Diego Toreros (Visit): 8.59%. For San Diego Toreros (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 11.65. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 15.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +28.81%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
Bally Bet🎯	1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -6.76%E -6.63%K -337.94%G +0.000%	15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV +28.81%E +1.92%K +2.06%G +0.593%	4.7%	2026-09-12 14:20
betPARX🎯	1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -6.76%E -6.63%K -337.94%G +0.000%	15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV +28.81%E +1.92%K +2.06%G +0.593%	4.7%	2026-09-12 14:20
BetMGM🎯	1.05I 95.24%NM 92.25%EV -4.02%E -3.83%K -80.33%G +0.000%	12.50I 8.00%NM 7.75%EV +7.34%E +0.587%K +0.638%G +0.047%	3.2%	2026-09-12 21:29
FanDuel🎯	1.03I 97.09%NM 92.21%EV -5.84%E -5.67%K -194.82%G +0.000%	12.20I 8.20%NM 7.79%EV +4.76%E +0.390%K +0.425%G +0.020%	5.3%	2026-09-12 18:30
Fliff🎯	1.04I 96.15%NM 91.54%EV -4.93%E -4.74%K -123.27%G +0.000%	11.25I 8.89%NM 8.46%EV -3.39%E -0.302%K -0.331%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-09-12 21:30
Caesars🎯	1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -4.93%E -4.74%K -123.27%G +0.000%	11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -5.54%E -0.504%K -0.554%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-09-12 16:45
Hard Rock Bet🎯	1.06I 94.34%NM 90.42%EV -3.10%E -2.93%K -51.71%G +0.000%	10.00I 10.00%NM 9.58%EV -14.13%E -1.41%K -1.57%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-09-12 18:30
theScore Bet🎯	1.03I 97.09%NM 90.66%EV -5.84%E -5.67%K -194.82%G +0.000%	10.00I 10.00%NM 9.34%EV -14.13%E -1.41%K -1.57%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-09-12 18:29
DraftKings🎯	1.05I 95.24%NM 90.14%EV -4.02%E -3.83%K -80.33%G +0.000%	9.60I 10.42%NM 9.86%EV -17.56%E -1.83%K -2.04%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-09-12 18:25

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.