The School of College Oddsodds.college
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Idaho State Bengals v Northern Arizona Lumberjacks

Kickoff: 2026-10-04 00:01 UTC

Final: Idaho State Bengals 31–38 Northern Arizona Lumberjacks

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Idaho State Bengals (Local)

Prediction 72.66%1.38fair odd
EV -2.64%
Edge -1.97%
Kelly -7.77%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.34

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
71.06%72.66%72.77%74.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.281.301.311.3478.13%76.66%76.34%74.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Northern Arizona Lumberjacks (Visit)

Prediction 27.34%3.66fair odd
EV +2.54%
Edge +0.678%
Kelly +0.924%
Growth +0.023%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.60%27.34%27.23%28.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.293.563.603.7530.40%28.09%27.78%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Idaho State Bengals (Local): 72.66%; Northern Arizona Lumberjacks (Visit): 27.34%. For Northern Arizona Lumberjacks (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.66. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.54%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -6.27%E -4.86%K -21.64%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV +2.54%E +0.678%K +0.924%G +0.023%4.2%2026-10-03 02:20
betPARX🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -7.00%E -5.47%K -25.00%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV +1.17%E +0.317%K +0.435%G +0.005%5.2%2026-10-03 02:20
BetRivers🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -7.00%E -5.47%K -25.00%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV +1.17%E +0.317%K +0.435%G +0.005%5.2%2026-10-03 02:20
Bally Bet🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -7.00%E -5.47%K -25.00%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV +1.17%E +0.317%K +0.435%G +0.005%5.2%2026-10-03 02:20
theScore Bet🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -4.82%E -3.68%K -15.55%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -1.56%E -0.433%K -0.600%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-03 15:35
FanDuel🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -4.82%E -3.68%K -15.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -4.29%E -1.23%K -1.72%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-03 14:05
BetMGM🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -3.37%E -2.53%K -10.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -7.03%E -2.07%K -2.93%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-03 21:45
Fliff🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -4.09%E -3.10%K -12.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -7.03%E -2.07%K -2.93%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-03 21:30
DraftKings🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 71.06%EV -2.64%E -1.97%K -7.77%G +0.000%3.29I 30.40%NM 28.94%EV -10.04%E -3.05%K -4.38%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-03 15:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.