Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Howard Bison v Richmond Spiders

Kickoff: 2026-09-05 22:01 UTC

Final: Howard Bison 21–28 Richmond Spiders

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

16%

84%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Howard Bison (Local)

Prediction 15.73%6.36fair odd

EV +2.25%

Edge +0.346%

Kelly +0.409%

Growth +0.009%

assuming max odds 6.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

14.70%15.73%15.73%15.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

6.006.246.226.5016.67%16.03%16.06%15.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Richmond Spiders (Visit)

Prediction 84.27%1.19fair odd

EV -4.78%

Edge -4.23%

Kelly -36.73%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.13

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

84.26%84.27%84.27%85.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.121.121.121.1389.29%89.09%89.29%88.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Howard Bison (Local): 15.73%; Richmond Spiders (Visit): 84.27%. For Howard Bison (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.36. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.25%.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Hard Rock Bet🎯	6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV +2.25%E +0.346%K +0.409%G +0.009%	1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%EV -5.62%E -5.02%K -46.82%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-09-01 16:44
ReBet🎯	6.40I 15.63%NM 14.89%EV +0.674%E +0.105%K +0.125%G +0.001%	1.12I 89.29%NM 85.11%EV -5.62%E -5.02%K -46.82%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-09-03 22:05
Fliff🎯	6.05I 16.53%NM 15.74%EV -4.83%E -0.799%K -0.957%G +0.000%	1.13I 88.50%NM 84.26%EV -4.78%E -4.23%K -36.73%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-09-03 23:04
FanDuel🎯	6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -5.62%E -0.936%K -1.12%G +0.000%	1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.62%E -5.02%K -46.82%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-09-01 01:20

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.