Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hampton Pirates v Howard Bison

Kickoff: 2026-10-03 19:01 UTC

Final: Hampton Pirates 13–27 Howard Bison

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hampton Pirates (Local)

Prediction 24.75%4.04fair odd
EV +1.46%
Edge +0.356%
Kelly +0.471%
Growth +0.007%

assuming max odds 4.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.65%24.88%24.80%26.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.753.694.1027.78%26.67%27.10%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Howard Bison (Visit)

Prediction 75.25%1.33fair odd
EV -1.42%
Edge -1.08%
Kelly -4.57%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.31

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
73.32%75.12%75.20%76.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.211.281.281.3182.64%78.19%78.13%76.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hampton Pirates (Local): 24.75%; Howard Bison (Visit): 75.25%. For Hampton Pirates (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.04. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.46%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetMGM🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.65%EV +1.46%E +0.356%K +0.471%G +0.007%1.27I 78.74%NM 76.35%EV -4.43%E -3.49%K -16.40%G +0.000%3.1%2026-10-03 17:10
theScore Bet🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.68%EV -3.49%E -0.895%K -1.20%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 76.32%EV -8.94%E -7.39%K -42.58%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-02 18:39
FanDuel🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.80%EV -4.73%E -1.23%K -1.66%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 75.20%EV -4.43%E -3.49%K -16.40%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-03 16:50
Fliff🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -5.96%E -1.57%K -2.13%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -4.43%E -3.49%K -16.40%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-03 18:25
DraftKings🎯3.69I 27.10%NM 25.75%EV -8.69%E -2.35%K -3.23%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 74.25%EV -3.67%E -2.87%K -13.12%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-03 15:35
Hard Rock Bet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -10.91%E -3.03%K -4.20%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -1.42%E -1.08%K -4.57%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-03 17:05
betPARX🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV -10.91%E -3.03%K -4.20%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV -2.17%E -1.67%K -7.23%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-03 17:05
BetRivers🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV -10.91%E -3.03%K -4.20%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV -2.17%E -1.67%K -7.23%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-03 17:05
Bally Bet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV -10.91%E -3.03%K -4.20%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV -2.17%E -1.67%K -7.23%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-03 17:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.