Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Elon Phoenix v Maine Black Bears

Kickoff: 2026-09-26 18:01 UTC

Final: Elon Phoenix 43–17 Maine Black Bears

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

67%

33%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Elon Phoenix (Local)

Prediction 66.72%1.50fair odd

EV -1.26%

Edge -0.851%

Kelly -2.62%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

64.16%66.83%66.51%69.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.361.401.381.4873.53%71.26%72.46%67.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Maine Black Bears (Visit)

Prediction 33.28%3.00fair odd

EV +4.84%

Edge +1.54%

Kelly +2.25%

Growth +0.109%

assuming max odds 3.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

30.16%33.17%33.49%35.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.652.932.903.1537.74%34.10%34.48%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Elon Phoenix (Local): 66.72%; Maine Black Bears (Visit): 33.28%. For Maine Black Bears (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.00. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.15, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.84%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
BetRivers🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -9.27%E -6.81%K -25.74%G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV +4.84%E +1.54%K +2.25%G +0.109%	5.3%	2026-09-26 14:55
Bally Bet🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -9.27%E -6.81%K -25.74%G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV +4.84%E +1.54%K +2.25%G +0.109%	5.3%	2026-09-26 14:55
betPARX🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -9.27%E -6.81%K -25.74%G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV +4.84%E +1.54%K +2.25%G +0.109%	5.3%	2026-09-26 14:55
Hard Rock Bet🎯	1.38I 72.46%NM 68.13%EV -7.93%E -5.75%K -20.87%G +0.000%	2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV -1.81%E -0.615%K -0.930%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-09-26 14:54
theScore Bet🎯	1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -7.93%E -5.75%K -20.87%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -3.48%E -1.20%K -1.83%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-09-26 15:54
FanDuel🎯	1.43I 69.93%NM 66.51%EV -4.60%E -3.21%K -10.69%G +0.000%	2.84I 35.21%NM 33.49%EV -5.48%E -1.93%K -2.98%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-09-26 08:05
BetMGM🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -3.26%E -2.25%K -7.25%G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -6.81%E -2.43%K -3.78%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-09-26 13:07
Fliff🎯	1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -4.60%E -3.21%K -10.69%G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -6.81%E -2.43%K -3.78%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-09-25 22:19
DraftKings🎯	1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -1.26%E -0.851%K -2.62%G +0.000%	2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -11.80%E -4.45%K -7.15%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-09-25 22:20

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.