Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Eastern Washington Eagles v Cal Poly Mustangs

Kickoff: 2026-09-26 23:01 UTC

Final: Eastern Washington Eagles 27–31 Cal Poly Mustangs

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Eastern Washington Eagles (Local)

Prediction 63.23%1.58fair odd
EV -3.26%
Edge -2.13%
Kelly -6.16%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.34%63.28%62.95%64.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.451.511.521.5368.97%66.27%65.79%65.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Cal Poly Mustangs (Visit)

Prediction 36.77%2.72fair odd
EV -2.55%
Edge -0.963%
Kelly -1.55%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.80%36.72%37.05%37.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.582.552.6540.00%38.81%39.22%37.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Eastern Washington Eagles (Local): 63.23%; Cal Poly Mustangs (Visit): 36.77%. For Cal Poly Mustangs (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.72. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.65, with an expected value of -2.55%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetMGM🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -3.26%E -2.13%K -6.16%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -4.39%E -1.69%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-26 20:14
BetRivers🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -3.26%E -2.13%K -6.16%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -6.23%E -2.44%K -4.02%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-26 21:04
betPARX🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -3.26%E -2.13%K -6.16%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -6.23%E -2.44%K -4.02%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-26 21:05
Bally Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -3.26%E -2.13%K -6.16%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -6.23%E -2.44%K -4.02%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-26 21:05
FanDuel🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.56%EV -3.90%E -2.56%K -7.49%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 37.44%EV -6.60%E -2.60%K -4.28%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-26 22:20
Fliff🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -4.53%E -3.00%K -8.88%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV -8.07%E -3.23%K -5.38%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-26 22:20
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -5.16%E -3.44%K -10.32%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -2.55%E -0.963%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-26 20:15
DraftKings🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -6.42%E -4.34%K -13.38%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -2.55%E -0.963%K -1.55%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-26 20:15
theScore Bet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -8.32%E -5.74%K -18.49%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -4.39%E -1.69%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-26 20:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.