The School of College Oddsodds.college
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Dayton Flyers v Morehead State Eagles

Kickoff: 2026-10-10 16:01 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

11 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Dayton Flyers (Local)

Prediction 92.27%1.08fair odd
EV -4.04%
Edge -3.88%
Kelly -100.88%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.04

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
91.44%92.21%92.19%93.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.021.031.031.0498.04%97.43%97.09%96.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Morehead State Eagles (Visit)

Prediction 7.73%12.94fair odd
EV +8.17%
Edge +0.583%
Kelly +0.628%
Growth +0.051%

assuming max odds 14.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
6.79%7.79%7.81%8.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
11.0012.1512.0014.009.09%8.23%8.33%7.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Dayton Flyers (Local): 92.27%; Morehead State Eagles (Visit): 7.73%. For Morehead State Eagles (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 12.94. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 14.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.17%.

Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
betPARX🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 93.21%EV -5.88%E -5.77%K -294.04%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.79%EV +8.17%E +0.583%K +0.628%G +0.051%5.2%2026-10-10 15:45
BetMGM🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -4.96%E -4.81%K -165.27%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV +0.441%E +0.034%K +0.037%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-10 14:10
DraftKings🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 92.62%EV -5.88%E -5.77%K -294.04%G +0.000%12.80I 7.81%NM 7.38%EV -1.10%E -0.086%K -0.094%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-10 14:00
Fliff🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 92.50%EV -4.96%E -4.81%K -165.27%G +0.000%12.70I 7.87%NM 7.50%EV -1.88%E -0.148%K -0.160%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-10 15:40
FanDuel🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 92.21%EV -4.96%E -4.81%K -165.27%G +0.000%12.20I 8.20%NM 7.79%EV -5.74%E -0.471%K -0.513%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 14:00
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -4.04%E -3.88%K -100.88%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV -7.29%E -0.607%K -0.662%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-10 14:00
Caesars🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -4.96%E -4.81%K -165.27%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -7.29%E -0.607%K -0.662%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-10 13:59
theScore Bet🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 92.17%EV -5.88%E -5.77%K -294.04%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV -7.29%E -0.607%K -0.662%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-10 14:00
ReBet🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -4.96%E -4.81%K -165.27%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV -15.01%E -1.36%K -1.50%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-10 15:59
BetRivers🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 91.51%EV -5.88%E -5.77%K -294.04%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV -15.01%E -1.36%K -1.50%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-10 16:00
Bally Bet🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 91.51%EV -5.88%E -5.77%K -294.04%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV -15.01%E -1.36%K -1.50%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-10 16:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.