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Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Dayton Flyers v Davidson Wildcats

2026-11-14 17:01 UTC — NCAAF FCS

Head to Head

2 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Dayton Flyers (Local)

Prediction 91.84%1.09fair odd
EV -4.48%
Edge -4.31%
Kelly -112.03%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.04

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
90.23%91.84%91.84%91.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.031.041.041.0497.09%96.62%96.62%96.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Davidson Wildcats (Visit)

Prediction 8.16%12.26fair odd
EV -5.40%
Edge -0.466%
Kelly -0.509%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 11.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.16%8.16%8.16%9.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
9.6010.6010.6011.6010.42%9.43%9.43%8.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Dayton Flyers (Local): 91.84%; Davidson Wildcats (Visit): 8.16%. For Dayton Flyers (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.09. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 1.04, with an expected value of -4.48%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (2 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
ReBet🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 90.23%EV -4.48%E -4.31%K -112.03%G +0.000%9.60I 10.42%NM 9.77%EV -21.71%E -2.26%K -2.52%G +0.000%6.6%2026-11-11 05:10
FanDuel🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 91.84%EV -5.40%E -5.24%K -179.99%G +0.000%11.60I 8.62%NM 8.16%EV -5.40%E -0.466%K -0.509%G +0.000%5.7%2026-11-11 04:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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