Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Columbia Lions v Lafayette Leopards

Kickoff: 2026-09-19 16:01 UTC

Final: Columbia Lions 40–34 Lafayette Leopards

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

58%

42%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Columbia Lions (Local)

Prediction 57.85%1.73fair odd

EV -2.23%

Edge -1.32%

Kelly -3.23%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.69

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

56.33%57.93%58.02%59.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.591.651.651.6962.89%60.64%60.61%59.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Lafayette Leopards (Visit)

Prediction 42.15%2.37fair odd

EV -0.528%

Edge -0.224%

Kelly -0.388%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

40.25%42.07%41.98%43.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.182.272.282.3645.87%44.11%43.86%42.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Columbia Lions (Local): 57.85%; Lafayette Leopards (Visit): 42.15%. For Lafayette Leopards (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.37. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.36, with an expected value of -0.528%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
FanDuel🎯	1.69I 59.17%NM 56.33%EV -2.23%E -1.32%K -3.23%G +0.000%	2.18I 45.87%NM 43.67%EV -8.12%E -3.72%K -6.88%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-09-19 14:21
Hard Rock Bet🎯	1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -3.39%E -2.03%K -5.06%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -3.06%E -1.33%K -2.35%G +0.000%	3.4%	2026-09-19 15:39
BetMGM🎯	1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -3.39%E -2.03%K -5.06%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -5.16%E -2.30%K -4.13%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-09-19 15:31
ReBet🎯	1.65I 60.61%NM 58.12%EV -4.55%E -2.76%K -6.99%G +0.000%	2.29I 43.67%NM 41.88%EV -3.48%E -1.52%K -2.70%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-09-19 15:39
betPARX🎯	1.65I 60.61%NM 58.02%EV -4.55%E -2.76%K -6.99%G +0.000%	2.28I 43.86%NM 41.98%EV -3.90%E -1.71%K -3.05%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-09-19 14:51
Bally Bet🎯	1.65I 60.61%NM 58.02%EV -4.55%E -2.76%K -6.99%G +0.000%	2.28I 43.86%NM 41.98%EV -3.90%E -1.71%K -3.05%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-09-19 14:50
BetRivers🎯	1.65I 60.61%NM 58.02%EV -4.55%E -2.76%K -6.99%G +0.000%	2.28I 43.86%NM 41.98%EV -3.90%E -1.71%K -3.05%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-09-19 14:49
Fliff🎯	1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -4.55%E -2.76%K -6.99%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -7.27%E -3.31%K -6.06%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-09-19 15:32
theScore Bet🎯	1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -6.28%E -3.88%K -10.13%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -5.16%E -2.30%K -4.13%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-09-19 15:44
DraftKings🎯	1.59I 62.89%NM 59.75%EV -8.02%E -5.04%K -13.59%G +0.000%	2.36I 42.37%NM 40.25%EV -0.528%E -0.224%K -0.388%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-09-19 15:31

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.