Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cal Poly Mustangs v Weber State Wildcats

Kickoff: 2026-10-04 00:01 UTC

Final: Cal Poly Mustangs 34–42 Weber State Wildcats

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

67%

33%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cal Poly Mustangs (Local)

Prediction 67.00%1.49fair odd

EV +0.497%

Edge +0.331%

Kelly +0.994%

Growth +0.005%

assuming max odds 1.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

62.96%66.31%66.82%67.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.411.461.441.5070.92%68.55%69.44%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Weber State Wildcats (Visit)

Prediction 33.00%3.03fair odd

EV -2.64%

Edge -0.896%

Kelly -1.36%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

32.41%33.69%33.18%37.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.552.742.802.9539.22%36.51%35.71%33.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cal Poly Mustangs (Local): 67.00%; Weber State Wildcats (Visit): 33.00%. For Cal Poly Mustangs (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.49. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.497%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
betPARX🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV +0.497%E +0.331%K +0.994%G +0.005%	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -15.85%E -6.21%K -10.22%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-10-03 13:45
BetRivers🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV +0.497%E +0.331%K +0.994%G +0.005%	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -15.85%E -6.21%K -10.22%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-10-03 13:45
Bally Bet🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV +0.497%E +0.331%K +0.994%G +0.005%	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -15.85%E -6.21%K -10.22%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-10-03 13:45
Hard Rock Bet🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV +0.497%E +0.331%K +0.994%G +0.005%	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -15.85%E -6.21%K -10.22%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-10-03 13:45
theScore Bet🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 66.82%EV -3.52%E -2.45%K -8.01%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 33.18%EV -4.29%E -1.48%K -2.26%G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-10-03 23:40
BetMGM🎯	1.43I 69.93%NM 67.35%EV -4.19%E -2.93%K -9.75%G +0.000%	2.95I 33.90%NM 32.65%EV -2.64%E -0.896%K -1.36%G +0.000%	3.8%	2026-10-03 23:44
Fliff🎯	1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -4.19%E -2.93%K -9.75%G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -7.59%E -2.71%K -4.22%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-10-03 23:55
DraftKings🎯	1.42I 70.42%NM 66.82%EV -4.86%E -3.42%K -11.58%G +0.000%	2.86I 34.97%NM 33.18%EV -5.61%E -1.96%K -3.02%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-10-03 22:00
FanDuel🎯	1.41I 70.92%NM 67.59%EV -5.53%E -3.92%K -13.49%G +0.000%	2.94I 34.01%NM 32.41%EV -2.97%E -1.01%K -1.53%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-10-03 23:40

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.