Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cal Poly Mustangs v San Diego Toreros

Kickoff: 2026-09-20 00:01 UTC

Final: Cal Poly Mustangs 35–38 San Diego Toreros

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

85%

15%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cal Poly Mustangs (Local)

Prediction 85.48%1.17fair odd

EV -4.27%

Edge -3.81%

Kelly -35.55%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.12

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

84.59%85.61%85.48%86.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.081.111.111.1292.59%90.29%90.09%89.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

San Diego Toreros (Visit)

Prediction 14.52%6.89fair odd

EV +6.02%

Edge +0.825%

Kelly +0.956%

Growth +0.058%

assuming max odds 7.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

13.10%14.39%14.52%15.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

6.006.646.757.3016.67%15.07%14.81%13.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cal Poly Mustangs (Local): 85.48%; San Diego Toreros (Visit): 14.52%. For San Diego Toreros (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.89. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.02%.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
FanDuel🎯	1.10I 90.91%NM 86.90%EV -5.98%E -5.43%K -59.76%G +0.000%	7.30I 13.70%NM 13.10%EV +6.02%E +0.825%K +0.956%G +0.058%	4.6%	2026-09-19 19:20
BetMGM🎯	1.12I 89.29%NM 86.21%EV -4.27%E -3.81%K -35.55%G +0.000%	7.00I 14.29%NM 13.79%EV +1.67%E +0.238%K +0.278%G +0.005%	3.6%	2026-09-19 19:39
Fliff🎯	1.10I 90.91%NM 86.25%EV -5.98%E -5.43%K -59.76%G +0.000%	6.90I 14.49%NM 13.75%EV +0.213%E +0.031%K +0.036%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-09-19 20:49
Bally Bet🎯	1.11I 90.09%NM 85.88%EV -5.12%E -4.61%K -46.56%G +0.000%	6.75I 14.81%NM 14.12%EV -1.97%E -0.291%K -0.342%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-09-19 19:09
betPARX🎯	1.11I 90.09%NM 85.88%EV -5.12%E -4.61%K -46.56%G +0.000%	6.75I 14.81%NM 14.12%EV -1.97%E -0.291%K -0.342%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-09-19 19:09
Hard Rock Bet🎯	1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -4.27%E -3.81%K -35.55%G +0.000%	6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -9.23%E -1.48%K -1.76%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-09-19 20:09
DraftKings🎯	1.12I 89.29%NM 84.59%EV -4.27%E -3.81%K -35.55%G +0.000%	6.15I 16.26%NM 15.41%EV -10.68%E -1.74%K -2.07%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-09-19 19:34
theScore Bet🎯	1.08I 92.59%NM 84.75%EV -7.69%E -7.12%K -96.07%G +0.000%	6.00I 16.67%NM 15.25%EV -12.86%E -2.14%K -2.57%G +0.000%	9.3%	2026-09-19 19:34

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.