Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Austin Peay Governors v UT Martin Skyhawks

Kickoff: 2026-09-26 18:01 UTC

Final: Austin Peay Governors 35–12 UT Martin Skyhawks

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

86%

14%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Austin Peay Governors (Local)

Prediction 86.16%1.16fair odd

EV -3.50%

Edge -3.13%

Kelly -29.18%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.12

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

84.75%86.07%86.42%87.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.081.101.101.1292.59%90.60%90.50%89.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

UT Martin Skyhawks (Visit)

Prediction 13.84%7.22fair odd

EV +3.81%

Edge +0.508%

Kelly +0.586%

Growth +0.022%

assuming max odds 7.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

12.89%13.93%13.58%15.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

6.006.806.907.5016.67%14.70%14.49%13.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Austin Peay Governors (Local): 86.16%; UT Martin Skyhawks (Visit): 13.84%. For UT Martin Skyhawks (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.22. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.81%.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
BetMGM🎯	1.11I 90.09%NM 87.11%EV -4.36%E -3.93%K -39.67%G +0.000%	7.50I 13.33%NM 12.89%EV +3.81%E +0.508%K +0.586%G +0.022%	3.4%	2026-09-26 17:59
FanDuel🎯	1.10I 90.91%NM 86.59%EV -5.23%E -4.75%K -52.25%G +0.000%	7.10I 14.08%NM 13.41%EV -1.73%E -0.243%K -0.283%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-09-26 17:55
BetRivers🎯	1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.23%E -4.75%K -52.25%G +0.000%	7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -3.11%E -0.444%K -0.519%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-09-26 12:20
Bally Bet🎯	1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.23%E -4.75%K -52.25%G +0.000%	7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -3.11%E -0.444%K -0.519%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-09-26 12:24
Fliff🎯	1.11I 90.09%NM 85.97%EV -4.36%E -3.93%K -39.67%G +0.000%	6.80I 14.71%NM 14.03%EV -5.88%E -0.865%K -1.01%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-09-26 18:00
DraftKings🎯	1.11I 90.09%NM 85.47%EV -4.36%E -3.93%K -39.67%G +0.000%	6.53I 15.31%NM 14.53%EV -9.62%E -1.47%K -1.74%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-09-26 14:38
Hard Rock Bet🎯	1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%EV -3.50%E -3.13%K -29.18%G +0.000%	6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV -10.03%E -1.54%K -1.82%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-09-26 17:59
theScore Bet🎯	1.08I 92.59%NM 84.75%EV -6.95%E -6.43%K -86.86%G +0.000%	6.00I 16.67%NM 15.25%EV -16.95%E -2.83%K -3.39%G +0.000%	9.3%	2026-09-26 17:34

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.