Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Abilene Christian Wildcats v West Florida Argonauts

Kickoff: 2026-10-04 00:01 UTC

Final: Abilene Christian Wildcats 35–7 West Florida Argonauts

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

68%

32%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Abilene Christian Wildcats (Local)

Prediction 67.62%1.48fair odd

EV +0.755%

Edge +0.507%

Kelly +1.54%

Growth +0.012%

assuming max odds 1.49

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

63.92%67.30%67.62%70.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.371.431.421.4972.99%70.18%70.18%67.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

West Florida Argonauts (Visit)

Prediction 32.38%3.09fair odd

EV +3.61%

Edge +1.13%

Kelly +1.64%

Growth +0.059%

assuming max odds 3.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

29.98%32.70%32.38%36.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.642.892.903.2037.88%34.58%34.48%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Abilene Christian Wildcats (Local): 67.62%; West Florida Argonauts (Visit): 32.38%. For West Florida Argonauts (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.09. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.61%.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
theScore Bet🎯	1.37I 72.99%NM 70.02%EV -7.36%E -5.37%K -19.89%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 29.98%EV +3.61%E +1.13%K +1.64%G +0.059%	4.2%	2026-10-03 23:58
DraftKings🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.89%EV -5.33%E -3.81%K -13.33%G +0.000%	2.96I 33.78%NM 32.11%EV -4.16%E -1.40%K -2.12%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-10-03 23:59
BetMGM🎯	1.43I 69.93%NM 67.35%EV -3.30%E -2.31%K -7.68%G +0.000%	2.95I 33.90%NM 32.65%EV -4.48%E -1.52%K -2.30%G +0.000%	3.8%	2026-10-03 23:58
Hard Rock Bet🎯	1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -3.98%E -2.80%K -9.47%G +0.000%	2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -7.72%E -2.71%K -4.17%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-10-03 19:40
Fliff🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -2.63%E -1.82%K -5.97%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -10.96%E -3.98%K -6.26%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-10-04 00:00
FanDuel🎯	1.49I 67.11%NM 63.92%EV +0.755%E +0.507%K +1.54%G +0.012%	2.64I 37.88%NM 36.08%EV -14.52%E -5.50%K -8.85%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-10-03 20:05

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.