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Wisconsin Badgers v Michigan State Spartans
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Wisconsin Badgers (Local)
Prediction 74.59%1.34fair odd
EV -1.54%
Edge -1.17%
Kelly -4.81%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.32
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
71.11%74.26%74.60%75.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.241.281.291.3280.65%78.06%77.52%75.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Michigan State Spartans (Visit)
Prediction 25.41%3.94fair odd
EV -0.398%
Edge -0.102%
Kelly -0.136%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.92
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.27%25.74%25.40%28.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.683.703.9231.25%27.15%27.03%25.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Wisconsin Badgers (Local): 74.59%; Michigan State Spartans (Visit): 25.41%. For Michigan State Spartans (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.94. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.92, with an expected value of -0.398%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (45 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.18%EV -1.54%E -1.17%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 3.26I 30.67%NM 28.82%EV -17.17%E -5.27%K -7.60%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-03 15:59 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -3.03%E -2.33%K -10.10%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -9.80%E -2.76%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-03 15:00 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -3.03%E -2.33%K -10.10%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -18.69%E -5.84%K -8.50%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-10-03 16:17 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -3.03%E -2.33%K -10.10%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -18.69%E -5.84%K -8.50%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-10-03 16:21 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 75.14%EV -3.78%E -2.93%K -13.02%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.86%EV -0.906%E -0.232%K -0.312%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-10-03 16:14 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.66%EV -3.78%E -2.93%K -13.02%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.34%EV -3.45%E -0.907%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-10-03 15:29 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.66%EV -3.78%E -2.93%K -13.02%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.34%EV -3.45%E -0.907%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-10-03 02:25 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.66%EV -3.78%E -2.93%K -13.02%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.34%EV -3.45%E -0.907%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-10-03 02:25 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.66%EV -3.78%E -2.93%K -13.02%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.34%EV -3.45%E -0.907%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-10-03 02:25 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.66%EV -3.78%E -2.93%K -13.02%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.34%EV -3.45%E -0.907%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-10-03 02:25 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -3.78%E -2.93%K -13.02%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -4.72%E -1.26%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-10-03 14:40 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -3.78%E -2.93%K -13.02%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -4.72%E -1.26%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-10-03 15:25 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -3.78%E -2.93%K -13.02%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -4.72%E -1.26%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-10-03 15:25 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -3.78%E -2.93%K -13.02%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -4.72%E -1.26%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-10-03 16:25 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.15%EV -3.78%E -2.93%K -13.02%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.85%EV -5.99%E -1.62%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-10-03 15:25 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.15%EV -3.78%E -2.93%K -13.02%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.85%EV -5.99%E -1.62%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-10-03 15:25 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.15%EV -3.78%E -2.93%K -13.02%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.85%EV -5.99%E -1.62%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-10-03 15:25 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.15%EV -3.78%E -2.93%K -13.02%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.85%EV -5.99%E -1.62%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-10-03 15:25 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -3.78%E -2.93%K -13.02%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -11.07%E -3.16%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-03 15:25 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -3.78%E -2.93%K -13.02%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -11.07%E -3.16%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-03 15:25 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -3.78%E -2.93%K -13.02%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -11.07%E -3.16%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-03 15:21 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -3.78%E -2.93%K -13.02%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -11.07%E -3.16%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-03 15:25 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -3.78%E -2.93%K -13.02%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -11.07%E -3.16%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-03 15:25 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 75.38%EV -4.52%E -3.53%K -16.15%G +0.000% | 3.92I 25.51%NM 24.62%EV -0.398%E -0.102%K -0.136%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-10-03 15:40 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 75.29%EV -4.52%E -3.53%K -16.15%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.71%EV -0.906%E -0.232%K -0.312%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-10-03 02:37 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.80%EV -4.52%E -3.53%K -16.15%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.20%EV -3.45%E -0.907%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-10-03 15:20 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.80%EV -4.52%E -3.53%K -16.15%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.20%EV -3.45%E -0.907%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-10-03 13:25 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -4.52%E -3.53%K -16.15%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -4.72%E -1.26%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-10-03 13:15 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -4.52%E -3.53%K -16.15%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -4.72%E -1.26%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-10-03 15:29 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -4.52%E -3.53%K -16.15%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -5.99%E -1.62%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-03 16:25 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -4.52%E -3.53%K -16.15%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -5.99%E -1.62%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-03 16:25 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -4.52%E -3.53%K -16.15%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -8.53%E -2.37%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-03 15:35 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -4.52%E -3.53%K -16.15%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -8.53%E -2.37%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-03 15:35 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -4.52%E -3.53%K -16.15%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -8.53%E -2.37%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-03 10:39 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.20%EV -5.27%E -4.15%K -19.51%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.80%EV -2.18%E -0.565%K -0.764%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-03 15:30 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -5.27%E -4.15%K -19.51%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -4.72%E -1.26%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-03 15:24 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -5.27%E -4.15%K -19.51%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -4.72%E -1.26%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-03 16:20 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -5.27%E -4.15%K -19.51%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.81%EV -7.26%E -1.99%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-03 16:25 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -6.01%E -4.77%K -23.13%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -0.906%E -0.232%K -0.312%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-03 16:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.60%EV -6.01%E -4.77%K -23.13%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -5.99%E -1.62%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-03 16:25 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -6.76%E -5.41%K -27.04%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -0.906%E -0.232%K -0.312%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-03 12:03 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.75%EV -6.76%E -5.41%K -27.04%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -5.99%E -1.62%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-03 14:39 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -6.76%E -5.41%K -27.04%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -8.53%E -2.37%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-10-03 15:35 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -6.76%E -5.41%K -27.04%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -8.53%E -2.37%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-10-03 15:35 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.40%EV -7.51%E -6.05%K -31.28%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.60%EV -3.45%E -0.907%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-03 15:44 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.31I 76.34%NM 76.48% | 4.26I 23.47%NM 23.52% | -0.2% | 2026-10-03 16:25 |
| Novig◎ | 1.32I 75.76%NM 75.56% | 4.08I 24.51%NM 24.44% | 0.3% | 2026-10-03 15:50 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.31I 76.34%NM 76.01% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 23.99% | 0.4% | 2026-10-03 15:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.31I 76.34%NM 75.79% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.21% | 0.7% | 2026-10-03 16:25 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.32I 75.76%NM 75.19% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.81% | 0.8% | 2026-10-03 16:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.30I 76.92%NM 75.93% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.07% | 1.3% | 2026-10-03 16:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.30I 76.92%NM 75.93% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.07% | 1.3% | 2026-10-03 16:25 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.30I 76.92%NM 75.93% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.07% | 1.3% | 2026-10-03 16:25 |