Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Vanderbilt Commodores v Austin Peay Governors

Kickoff: 2026-09-05 23:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

94%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Vanderbilt Commodores (Local)

Prediction 94.39%1.06fair odd

EV -2.78%

Edge -2.70%

Kelly -92.60%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.03

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

90.74%94.28%94.64%97.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.001.021.021.03100.00%98.49%98.04%97.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Austin Peay Governors (Visit)

Prediction 5.61%17.83fair odd

EV +101.95%

Edge +2.83%

Kelly +2.91%

Growth +2.97%

assuming max odds 36.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

2.70%5.72%5.36%9.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

10.0016.5315.0036.0010.00%6.05%6.67%2.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Vanderbilt Commodores (Local): 94.39%; Austin Peay Governors (Visit): 5.61%. For Austin Peay Governors (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 17.83. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 36.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +101.95%.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
theScore Bet🎯	1.00I 100.00%NM 97.30%EV -5.61%E -5.61%K +0.000%G +0.000%	36.00I 2.78%NM 2.70%EV +101.95%E +2.83%K +2.91%G +2.97%	2.8%	2026-09-02 10:50
FanDuel🎯	1.01I 99.01%NM 96.12%EV -4.67%E -4.62%K -466.59%G +0.000%	25.00I 4.00%NM 3.88%EV +40.25%E +1.61%K +1.68%G +0.675%	3.0%	2026-09-01 16:15
Fanatics🎯	1.02I 98.04%NM 94.91%EV -3.72%E -3.65%K -186.10%G +0.000%	19.00I 5.26%NM 5.09%EV +6.59%E +0.347%K +0.366%G +0.024%	3.3%	2026-09-01 04:00
DraftKings🎯	1.02I 98.04%NM 94.64%EV -3.72%E -3.65%K -186.10%G +0.000%	18.00I 5.56%NM 5.36%EV +0.977%E +0.054%K +0.057%G +0.001%	3.6%	2026-09-01 03:44
GTbets🎯	1.02I 98.04%NM 94.34%EV -3.72%E -3.65%K -186.10%G +0.000%	17.00I 5.88%NM 5.66%EV -4.63%E -0.273%K -0.290%G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-09-02 07:05
SportsBet🎯	1.00I 100.00%NM 94.44%EV -5.61%E -5.61%K +0.000%G +0.000%	17.00I 5.88%NM 5.56%EV -4.63%E -0.273%K -0.290%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-09-01 16:15
MyBookie.ag🎯	1.00I 100.00%NM 93.94%EV -5.61%E -5.61%K +0.000%G +0.000%	15.50I 6.45%NM 6.06%EV -13.05%E -0.842%K -0.900%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-08-10 16:44
Caesars🎯	1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -3.72%E -3.65%K -186.10%G +0.000%	15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV -15.85%E -1.06%K -1.13%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-09-02 16:58
Betr (AU)🎯	1.01I 99.01%NM 93.38%EV -4.67%E -4.62%K -466.59%G +0.000%	14.25I 7.02%NM 6.62%EV -20.06%E -1.41%K -1.51%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-07-29 05:44
Hard Rock Bet🎯	1.02I 98.04%NM 93.21%EV -3.72%E -3.65%K -186.10%G +0.000%	14.00I 7.14%NM 6.79%EV -21.46%E -1.53%K -1.65%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-09-01 03:54
ReBet🎯	1.02I 98.04%NM 92.85%EV -3.72%E -3.65%K -186.10%G +0.000%	13.25I 7.55%NM 7.15%EV -25.67%E -1.94%K -2.10%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-09-03 23:05
Unibet (UK)🎯	1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -2.78%E -2.70%K -92.60%G +0.000%	13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV -27.07%E -2.08%K -2.26%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-09-03 23:05
LeoVegas🎯	1.02I 98.04%NM 91.51%EV -3.72%E -3.65%K -186.10%G +0.000%	11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV -38.29%E -3.48%K -3.83%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-09-02 23:04
betano_uk🎯	1.02I 98.04%NM 90.74%EV -3.72%E -3.65%K -186.10%G +0.000%	10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV -43.90%E -4.39%K -4.88%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-09-04 06:35
Bet Victor🎯	1.02I 98.04%NM 90.74%EV -3.72%E -3.65%K -186.10%G +0.000%	10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV -43.90%E -4.39%K -4.88%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-09-04 06:37

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
ProphetX◎	1.03I 97.09%NM 96.19%	26.00I 3.85%NM 3.81%	0.9%	2026-09-04 13:55
Novig◎	1.03I 97.09%NM 96.14%	25.64I 3.90%NM 3.86%	1.0%	2026-09-04 14:30
Kalshi◎	1.02I 98.04%NM 96.08%	25.00I 4.00%NM 3.92%	2.0%	2026-09-04 14:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	1.02I 98.04%NM 94.34%	17.00I 5.88%NM 5.66%	3.9%	2026-09-04 03:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	1.02I 98.04%NM 94.34%	17.00I 5.88%NM 5.66%	3.9%	2026-09-04 03:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	1.02I 98.04%NM 94.34%	17.00I 5.88%NM 5.66%	3.9%	2026-09-04 03:55