Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

UTSA Roadrunners v UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros

Kickoff: 2026-09-05 19:32 UTC

Final: UTSA Roadrunners 45–16 UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

UTSA Roadrunners (Local)

Prediction 95.38%1.05fair odd
EV -2.71%
Edge -2.66%
Kelly -135.50%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
92.79%95.37%95.18%96.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.011.011.011.0299.01%98.93%99.01%98.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros (Visit)

Prediction 4.62%21.66fair odd
EV +33.91%
Edge +1.17%
Kelly +1.21%
Growth +0.411%

assuming max odds 29.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
3.37%4.63%4.82%7.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
13.0018.7918.7529.007.69%5.32%5.33%3.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: UTSA Roadrunners (Local): 95.38%; UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros (Visit): 4.62%. For UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 21.66. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 29.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +33.91%.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Fanatics🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 96.63%EV -3.66%E -3.63%K -366.38%G +0.000%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.37%EV +33.91%E +1.17%K +1.21%G +0.411%2.5%2026-09-04 04:40
DraftKings🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 96.26%EV -3.66%E -3.63%K -366.38%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.74%EV +20.06%E +0.771%K +0.802%G +0.161%2.9%2026-08-10 16:24
FanDuel🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 95.41%EV -3.66%E -3.63%K -366.38%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.59%EV -3.03%E -0.144%K -0.151%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-31 19:25
theScore Bet🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 94.91%EV -2.71%E -2.66%K -135.50%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 5.09%EV -12.26%E -0.646%K -0.681%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-27 18:35
Unibet (UK)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 94.95%EV -3.66%E -3.63%K -366.38%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 5.05%EV -12.26%E -0.646%K -0.681%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-15 22:34
GTbets🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 94.95%EV -3.66%E -3.63%K -366.38%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 5.05%EV -12.26%E -0.646%K -0.681%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-01 06:20
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 94.82%EV -3.66%E -3.63%K -366.38%G +0.000%18.50I 5.41%NM 5.18%EV -14.57%E -0.788%K -0.833%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-10 16:25
ReBet🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 94.31%EV -3.66%E -3.63%K -366.38%G +0.000%16.75I 5.97%NM 5.69%EV -22.65%E -1.35%K -1.44%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-03 19:35
Caesars🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 94.06%EV -3.66%E -3.63%K -366.38%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.94%EV -26.12%E -1.63%K -1.74%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-02 14:19
MyBookie.ag🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 93.38%EV -3.66%E -3.63%K -366.38%G +0.000%14.25I 7.02%NM 6.62%EV -34.20%E -2.40%K -2.58%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-10 16:24
SportsBet🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 93.27%EV -3.66%E -3.63%K -366.38%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.73%EV -35.35%E -2.53%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-31 19:24
LeoVegas🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 92.79%EV -3.66%E -3.63%K -366.38%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -39.97%E -3.07%K -3.33%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-03 13:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig1.04I 96.15%NM 95.62%22.73I 4.40%NM 4.38%0.6%2026-09-04 14:19
Kalshi1.04I 96.15%NM 94.13%16.67I 6.00%NM 5.87%2.2%2026-09-04 14:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.02I 98.04%NM 94.34%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.66%3.9%2026-09-04 11:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.02I 98.04%NM 94.34%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.66%3.9%2026-09-04 11:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.02I 98.04%NM 94.34%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.66%3.9%2026-09-04 11:50