Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Utah State Aggies v Idaho State Bengals

2026-09-05 23:00 UTC — NCAAF

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

82%

18%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Utah State Aggies (Local)

Prediction 81.61%1.23fair odd

EV -2.88%

Edge -2.42%

Kelly -15.17%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.19

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

80.78%81.80%81.61%83.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.121.151.131.1989.29%87.24%88.11%84.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Idaho State Bengals (Visit)

Prediction 18.39%5.44fair odd

EV +5.73%

Edge +0.997%

Kelly +1.21%

Growth +0.069%

assuming max odds 5.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

16.55%18.20%18.39%19.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

5.005.285.255.7520.00%18.93%19.05%17.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Utah State Aggies (Local): 81.61%; Idaho State Bengals (Visit): 18.39%. For Idaho State Bengals (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.44. 2 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 5.75, producing a positive expected value of +5.73%.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
Hard Rock Bet🎯	1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -6.96%E -6.11%K -49.73%G +0.000%	5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV +5.73%E +0.997%K +1.21%G +0.069%	5.1%	2026-08-05 15:55
Unibet (UK)🎯	1.13I 88.50%NM 83.21%EV -7.78%E -6.88%K -59.84%G +0.000%	5.60I 17.86%NM 16.79%EV +2.97%E +0.531%K +0.647%G +0.019%	6.4%	2026-08-05 15:55
FanDuel🎯	1.16I 86.21%NM 82.32%EV -5.33%E -4.60%K -33.32%G +0.000%	5.40I 18.52%NM 17.68%EV -0.703%E -0.130%K -0.160%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-08-10 18:15
ReBet🎯	1.13I 88.50%NM 82.70%EV -7.78%E -6.88%K -59.84%G +0.000%	5.40I 18.52%NM 17.30%EV -0.703%E -0.130%K -0.160%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-08-13 10:24
LeoVegas🎯	1.12I 89.29%NM 81.99%EV -8.59%E -7.67%K -71.62%G +0.000%	5.10I 19.61%NM 18.01%EV -6.22%E -1.22%K -1.52%G +0.000%	8.9%	2026-08-08 10:54
DraftKings🎯	1.19I 84.03%NM 80.78%EV -2.88%E -2.42%K -15.17%G +0.000%	5.00I 20.00%NM 19.22%EV -8.06%E -1.61%K -2.01%G +0.000%	4.0%	2026-08-10 16:40
Fanatics🎯	1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -3.70%E -3.13%K -20.55%G +0.000%	5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -8.06%E -1.61%K -2.01%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-08-10 18:45
SportsBet🎯	1.12I 89.29%NM 81.70%EV -8.59%E -7.67%K -71.62%G +0.000%	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -8.06%E -1.61%K -2.01%G +0.000%	9.3%	2026-08-12 00:09

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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