Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

UCLA Bruins v Michigan State Spartans

2026-10-24 16:00 UTC — NCAAF

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

81%

19%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

UCLA Bruins (Local)

Prediction 80.75%1.24fair odd

EV -3.91%

Edge -3.29%

Kelly -20.58%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.19

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

78.80%80.75%80.78%81.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.131.161.161.1988.50%86.21%86.21%84.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Michigan State Spartans (Visit)

Prediction 19.25%5.19fair odd

EV -3.74%

Edge -0.747%

Kelly -0.934%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

18.83%19.25%19.22%21.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

4.204.694.705.0023.81%21.30%21.28%20.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: UCLA Bruins (Local): 80.75%; Michigan State Spartans (Visit): 19.25%. For Michigan State Spartans (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.19. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 5.00, with an expected value of -3.74%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
DraftKings🎯	1.19I 84.03%NM 80.78%EV -3.91%E -3.29%K -20.58%G +0.000%	5.00I 20.00%NM 19.22%EV -3.74%E -0.747%K -0.934%G +0.000%	4.0%	2026-10-18 04:45
FanDuel🎯	1.19I 84.03%NM 80.30%EV -3.91%E -3.29%K -20.58%G +0.000%	4.85I 20.62%NM 19.70%EV -6.63%E -1.37%K -1.72%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-10-18 06:20
SportsBet🎯	1.17I 85.47%NM 79.72%EV -5.53%E -4.72%K -32.50%G +0.000%	4.60I 21.74%NM 20.28%EV -11.44%E -2.49%K -3.18%G +0.000%	7.2%	2026-10-18 06:35
Unibet (UK)🎯	1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -6.33%E -5.46%K -39.58%G +0.000%	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -3.74%E -0.747%K -0.934%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-10-18 04:50
ReBet🎯	1.16I 86.21%NM 80.54%EV -6.33%E -5.46%K -39.58%G +0.000%	4.80I 20.83%NM 19.46%EV -7.59%E -1.58%K -2.00%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-10-18 04:47
LeoVegas🎯	1.14I 87.72%NM 80.14%EV -7.95%E -6.97%K -56.77%G +0.000%	4.60I 21.74%NM 19.86%EV -11.44%E -2.49%K -3.18%G +0.000%	9.5%	2026-10-18 04:50
Paddy Power🎯	1.14I 87.72%NM 79.79%EV -7.95%E -6.97%K -56.77%G +0.000%	4.50I 22.22%NM 20.21%EV -13.36%E -2.97%K -3.82%G +0.000%	9.9%	2026-10-18 06:25
picklebet_au🎯	1.13I 88.50%NM 78.80%EV -8.76%E -7.75%K -67.35%G +0.000%	4.20I 23.81%NM 21.20%EV -19.14%E -4.56%K -5.98%G +0.000%	12.3%	2026-10-18 04:50

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Kalshi◎	1.20I 83.33%NM 80.65%	5.00I 20.00%NM 19.35%	3.3%	2026-10-18 07:35
Polymarket◎	1.19I 84.03%NM 80.00%	4.76I 21.01%NM 20.00%	5.0%	2026-10-18 07:05
Novig◎	1.14I 87.72%NM 75.48%	3.51I 28.49%NM 24.52%	16.2%	2026-10-18 07:05