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UCF Knights v TCU Horned Frogs
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
UCF Knights (Local)
Prediction 39.44%2.54fair odd
EV -0.994%
Edge -0.396%
Kelly -0.659%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.51
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.87%39.36%39.45%40.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.412.402.5143.48%41.44%41.67%39.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
TCU Horned Frogs (Visit)
Prediction 60.56%1.65fair odd
EV -3.11%
Edge -1.94%
Kelly -5.19%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.49%60.64%60.55%62.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.571.581.6065.36%63.51%63.29%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: UCF Knights (Local): 39.44%; TCU Horned Frogs (Visit): 60.56%. For UCF Knights (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.54. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.51, with an expected value of -0.994%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (41 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 2.51I 39.84%NM 37.87%EV -0.994%E -0.396%K -0.659%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.13%EV -7.35%E -4.80%K -13.87%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-26 18:18 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.88%EV -1.39%E -0.556%K -0.926%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 61.12%EV -3.72%E -2.34%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-09-26 18:20 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.88%EV -1.39%E -0.556%K -0.926%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 61.12%EV -3.72%E -2.34%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-09-26 18:15 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.57%EV -1.39%E -0.556%K -0.926%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 61.43%EV -4.93%E -3.14%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-09-26 18:11 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -1.39%E -0.556%K -0.926%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -5.53%E -3.55%K -9.88%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-26 18:10 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -1.39%E -0.556%K -0.926%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -6.74%E -4.38%K -12.49%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-26 18:10 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.49I 40.16%NM 38.97%EV -1.78%E -0.716%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 61.03%EV -3.72%E -2.34%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-09-26 18:05 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.49I 40.16%NM 38.97%EV -1.78%E -0.716%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 61.03%EV -3.72%E -2.34%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-09-26 18:05 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.46I 40.65%NM 39.26%EV -2.97%E -1.21%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.74%EV -3.72%E -2.34%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-09-26 18:05 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.36%EV -3.36%E -1.37%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.64%EV -3.72%E -2.34%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-09-26 18:10 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.36%EV -3.36%E -1.37%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.64%EV -3.72%E -2.34%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-09-26 18:15 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.36%EV -3.36%E -1.37%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.64%EV -3.72%E -2.34%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-09-26 18:14 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -3.36%E -1.37%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -4.93%E -3.14%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-09-26 19:25 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -3.36%E -1.37%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -7.35%E -4.80%K -13.87%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-26 18:15 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.55%EV -4.15%E -1.71%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.45%EV -3.72%E -2.34%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-09-26 19:12 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.42I 41.32%NM 39.65%EV -4.54%E -1.88%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.35%EV -3.72%E -2.34%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-26 18:10 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -5.33%E -2.22%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -3.72%E -2.34%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-26 19:25 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -5.33%E -2.22%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -4.32%E -2.74%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-26 19:20 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -5.33%E -2.22%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -4.32%E -2.74%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-26 18:10 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -5.33%E -2.22%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -4.93%E -3.14%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-26 18:15 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -5.33%E -2.22%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -4.93%E -3.14%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-26 18:15 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -5.33%E -2.22%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -4.93%E -3.14%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-26 18:10 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -5.33%E -2.22%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -4.93%E -3.14%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-26 19:25 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -5.33%E -2.22%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.53%E -3.55%K -9.88%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-26 19:25 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -5.33%E -2.22%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -6.14%E -3.96%K -11.16%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-26 18:15 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.39I 41.84%NM 39.34%EV -5.73%E -2.40%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.66%EV -6.14%E -3.96%K -11.16%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-26 18:15 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 40.20%EV -6.12%E -2.57%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.80%EV -3.11%E -1.94%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-09-26 18:15 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 40.20%EV -6.12%E -2.57%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.80%EV -3.11%E -1.94%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-09-26 18:15 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 40.20%EV -6.12%E -2.57%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.80%EV -3.11%E -1.94%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-09-26 18:15 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 40.20%EV -6.12%E -2.57%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.80%EV -3.11%E -1.94%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-09-26 18:14 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.90%EV -6.12%E -2.57%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.10%EV -4.32%E -2.74%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-26 19:19 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -6.12%E -2.57%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.93%E -3.14%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-26 18:15 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -6.12%E -2.57%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.93%E -3.14%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-26 18:15 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -6.12%E -2.57%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.93%E -3.14%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-26 18:15 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -7.31%E -3.11%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.11%E -1.94%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-26 18:39 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -7.31%E -3.11%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -4.32%E -2.74%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-26 18:15 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -7.31%E -3.11%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -4.32%E -2.74%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-26 19:25 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -7.31%E -3.11%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -4.93%E -3.14%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-26 18:15 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -7.31%E -3.11%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -6.14%E -3.96%K -11.16%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-26 19:23 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -9.28%E -4.03%K -7.14%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -6.14%E -3.96%K -11.16%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-26 18:15 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -9.28%E -4.03%K -7.14%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -6.14%E -3.96%K -11.16%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-26 18:15 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig◎ | 2.60I 38.46%NM 38.24% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 61.76% | 0.6% | 2026-09-26 19:20 |
| ProphetX◎ | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.76% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 61.24% | 0.8% | 2026-09-26 18:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.76% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 61.24% | 0.8% | 2026-09-26 18:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.76% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 61.24% | 0.8% | 2026-09-26 19:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.76% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 61.24% | 0.8% | 2026-09-26 18:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.76% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 61.24% | 0.8% | 2026-09-26 19:05 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.61% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 61.39% | 1.2% | 2026-09-26 18:50 |
| BetOpenly◎ | 2.45I 40.82%NM 40.24% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 59.76% | 1.4% | 2026-09-26 19:25 |