Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Texas State Bobcats v Incarnate Word Cardinals

2026-09-26 22:00 UTC — NCAAF

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

93%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Texas State Bobcats (Local)

Prediction 93.44%1.07fair odd

EV -4.69%

Edge -4.60%

Kelly -234.53%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

91.59%93.44%94.34%94.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.011.011.011.0299.01%98.68%99.01%98.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Incarnate Word Cardinals (Visit)

Prediction 6.56%15.25fair odd

EV +11.51%

Edge +0.677%

Kelly +0.719%

Growth +0.083%

assuming max odds 17.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

5.61%6.56%5.66%8.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

11.0013.1711.5017.009.09%7.59%8.70%5.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Texas State Bobcats (Local): 93.44%; Incarnate Word Cardinals (Visit): 6.56%. For Incarnate Word Cardinals (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 15.25. 2 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 17.00, producing a positive expected value of +11.51%.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
FanDuel🎯	1.02I 98.04%NM 94.34%EV -4.69%E -4.60%K -234.53%G +0.000%	17.00I 5.88%NM 5.66%EV +11.51%E +0.677%K +0.719%G +0.083%	3.9%	2026-09-22 05:54
Unibet (UK)🎯	1.01I 99.01%NM 94.39%EV -5.62%E -5.57%K -562.49%G +0.000%	17.00I 5.88%NM 5.61%EV +11.51%E +0.677%K +0.719%G +0.083%	4.9%	2026-09-22 06:09
SportsBet🎯	1.02I 98.04%NM 92.17%EV -4.69%E -4.60%K -234.53%G +0.000%	12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV -21.29%E -1.77%K -1.94%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-09-22 05:59
LeoVegas🎯	1.01I 99.01%NM 91.59%EV -5.62%E -5.57%K -562.49%G +0.000%	11.00I 9.09%NM 8.41%EV -27.85%E -2.53%K -2.78%G +0.000%	8.1%	2026-09-22 06:08
Bet Victor🎯	1.01I 99.01%NM 91.59%EV -5.62%E -5.57%K -562.49%G +0.000%	11.00I 9.09%NM 8.41%EV -27.85%E -2.53%K -2.78%G +0.000%	8.1%	2026-09-22 06:08
betano_uk🎯	1.01I 99.01%NM 91.59%EV -5.62%E -5.57%K -562.49%G +0.000%	11.00I 9.09%NM 8.41%EV -27.85%E -2.53%K -2.78%G +0.000%	8.1%	2026-09-22 06:14

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Novig◎	1.00I 100.00%NM 93.89%	15.38I 6.50%NM 6.11%	6.5%	2026-09-22 07:43