The School of College Oddsodds.college
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Texas State Bobcats v Incarnate Word Cardinals

Kickoff: 2026-09-26 22:10 UTC

Final: Texas State Bobcats 63–10 Incarnate Word Cardinals

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Texas State Bobcats (Local)

Prediction 93.41%1.07fair odd
EV -2.86%
Edge -2.75%
Kelly -71.45%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.04

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
92.24%93.52%93.21%95.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.011.021.021.0499.01%98.28%98.04%96.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Incarnate Word Cardinals (Visit)

Prediction 6.59%15.16fair odd
EV +38.48%
Edge +1.83%
Kelly +1.92%
Growth +0.740%

assuming max odds 21.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
4.63%6.48%6.79%7.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
12.0015.4115.2821.008.33%6.49%6.55%4.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Texas State Bobcats (Local): 93.41%; Incarnate Word Cardinals (Visit): 6.59%. For Incarnate Word Cardinals (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 15.16. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 21.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +38.48%.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetMGM🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 95.37%EV -4.73%E -4.63%K -236.31%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.63%EV +38.48%E +1.83%K +1.92%G +0.740%2.8%2026-09-26 20:34
Neds🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 94.95%EV -5.66%E -5.60%K -566.03%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 5.05%EV +25.29%E +1.33%K +1.41%G +0.355%4.3%2026-09-26 20:34
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 94.95%EV -5.66%E -5.60%K -566.03%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 5.05%EV +25.29%E +1.33%K +1.41%G +0.355%4.3%2026-09-26 20:35
FanDuel🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 94.34%EV -4.73%E -4.63%K -236.31%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.66%EV +12.10%E +0.712%K +0.757%G +0.092%3.9%2026-09-22 22:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 94.39%EV -5.66%E -5.60%K -566.03%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.61%EV +12.10%E +0.712%K +0.757%G +0.092%4.9%2026-09-26 13:25
Coral🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 94.39%EV -5.66%E -5.60%K -566.03%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.61%EV +12.10%E +0.712%K +0.757%G +0.092%4.9%2026-09-26 13:25
theScore Bet🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 94.01%EV -4.73%E -4.63%K -236.31%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.99%EV +5.51%E +0.344%K +0.367%G +0.020%4.3%2026-09-26 21:49
GTbets🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 93.84%EV -4.73%E -4.63%K -236.31%G +0.000%15.55I 6.43%NM 6.16%EV +2.54%E +0.164%K +0.175%G +0.004%4.5%2026-09-26 21:55
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -4.73%E -4.63%K -236.31%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV -1.08%E -0.072%K -0.077%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-22 22:10
DraftKings🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 93.09%EV -2.86%E -2.75%K -71.45%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.91%EV -7.68%E -0.548%K -0.591%G +0.000%3.3%2026-09-26 21:55
Unibet (UK)🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 93.21%EV -4.73%E -4.63%K -236.31%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.79%EV -7.68%E -0.548%K -0.591%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-24 22:00
SportsBet🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 92.79%EV -5.66%E -5.60%K -566.03%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -14.27%E -1.10%K -1.19%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-22 22:10
Betsson🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 92.39%EV -3.79%E -3.68%K -126.41%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.61%EV -17.57%E -1.41%K -1.53%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-26 19:40
LeoVegas🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 92.46%EV -4.73%E -4.63%K -236.31%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.54%EV -17.57%E -1.41%K -1.53%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-25 22:05
Bet Victor🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 92.24%EV -5.66%E -5.60%K -566.03%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.76%EV -20.87%E -1.74%K -1.90%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-26 21:45
betano_uk🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 92.24%EV -5.66%E -5.60%K -566.03%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.76%EV -20.87%E -1.74%K -1.90%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-26 21:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
ProphetX◎1.06I 94.34%NM 93.96%16.50I 6.06%NM 6.04%0.4%2026-09-26 21:55
Novig◎1.04I 96.15%NM 94.59%18.18I 5.50%NM 5.41%1.7%2026-09-26 21:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.03I 97.09%NM 94.59%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.41%2.6%2026-09-26 21:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.02I 98.04%NM 94.64%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.36%3.6%2026-09-26 21:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.02I 98.04%NM 94.64%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.36%3.6%2026-09-26 21:55