The School of Odds

Texas Longhorns v Texas State Bobcats

2026-09-05 19:30 UTC — NCAAF

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Texas Longhorns (Local)

Prediction 95.52%1.05fair odd
EV -3.53%
Edge -3.49%
Kelly -352.57%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.01

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
91.23%95.46%95.79%96.88%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.001.011.011.01100.00%99.30%99.01%99.01%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Texas State Bobcats (Visit)

Prediction 4.48%22.32fair odd
EV +38.91%
Edge +1.26%
Kelly +1.30%
Growth +0.505%

assuming max odds 31.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
3.13%4.54%4.21%8.77%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
10.5019.6518.2531.009.52%5.09%5.48%3.23%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
theScore Bet1.00I 100.00%NM 96.88%EV -4.48%E -4.48%K +0.000%G +0.000%31.00I 3.23%NM 3.13%EV +38.91%E +1.26%K +1.30%G +0.505%3.2%2026-07-14 20:04
DraftKings1.01I 99.01%NM 96.26%EV -3.53%E -3.49%K -352.57%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.74%EV +16.50%E +0.635%K +0.660%G +0.109%2.9%2026-07-20 20:40
FanDuel1.01I 99.01%NM 96.12%EV -3.53%E -3.49%K -352.57%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.88%EV +12.02%E +0.481%K +0.501%G +0.060%3.0%2026-06-01 02:50
Unibet (UK)1.01I 99.01%NM 95.79%EV -3.53%E -3.49%K -352.57%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.21%EV +3.06%E +0.133%K +0.139%G +0.004%3.4%2026-06-15 21:49
Caesars1.01I 99.01%NM 95.19%EV -3.53%E -3.49%K -352.57%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.81%EV -10.38%E -0.519%K -0.546%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-26 19:45
Coolbet1.01I 99.01%NM 94.23%EV -3.53%E -3.49%K -352.57%G +0.000%16.50I 6.06%NM 5.77%EV -26.07%E -1.58%K -1.68%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-24 02:10
MyBookie.ag1.00I 100.00%NM 93.85%EV -4.48%E -4.48%K +0.000%G +0.000%15.25I 6.56%NM 6.15%EV -31.67%E -2.08%K -2.22%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-07 21:04
PointsBet (AU)1.00I 100.00%NM 93.75%EV -4.48%E -4.48%K +0.000%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.25%EV -32.79%E -2.19%K -2.34%G +0.000%6.7%2026-06-01 10:49
Betr (AU)1.01I 99.01%NM 93.38%EV -3.53%E -3.49%K -352.57%G +0.000%14.25I 7.02%NM 6.62%EV -36.15%E -2.54%K -2.73%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-08 10:40
LeoVegas1.01I 99.01%NM 91.23%EV -3.53%E -3.49%K -352.57%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.77%EV -52.95%E -5.04%K -5.57%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-02 10:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.