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TCU Horned Frogs v Arkansas State Red Wolves
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
TCU Horned Frogs (Local)
Prediction 88.53%1.13fair odd
EV -2.61%
Edge -2.38%
Kelly -26.13%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
85.64%88.40%88.73%89.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.061.081.081.1094.34%92.85%92.59%90.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Arkansas State Red Wolves (Visit)
Prediction 11.47%8.72fair odd
EV +8.93%
Edge +0.940%
Kelly +1.05%
Growth +0.094%
assuming max odds 9.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.12%11.60%11.27%14.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.508.178.039.5015.38%12.23%12.46%10.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: TCU Horned Frogs (Local): 88.53%; Arkansas State Red Wolves (Visit): 11.47%. For Arkansas State Red Wolves (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.72. 12 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 9.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.93%.
Sportsbook Odds (44 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caesars🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.88%EV -5.27%E -4.92%K -75.27%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 10.12%EV +8.93%E +0.940%K +1.05%G +0.094% | 4.0% | 2026-09-13 18:04 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 89.55%EV -4.38%E -4.06%K -54.79%G +0.000% | 9.25I 10.81%NM 10.45%EV +6.06%E +0.655%K +0.735%G +0.045% | 3.4% | 2026-09-19 23:20 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 89.29%EV -4.38%E -4.06%K -54.79%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.71%EV +3.20%E +0.355%K +0.399%G +0.013% | 3.7% | 2026-09-19 14:01 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -5.27%E -4.92%K -75.27%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV +3.20%E +0.355%K +0.399%G +0.013% | 4.6% | 2026-09-18 10:54 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -5.27%E -4.92%K -75.27%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV +3.20%E +0.355%K +0.399%G +0.013% | 4.6% | 2026-09-19 14:01 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -5.27%E -4.92%K -75.27%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV +3.20%E +0.355%K +0.399%G +0.013% | 4.6% | 2026-09-19 14:01 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -5.27%E -4.92%K -75.27%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV +3.20%E +0.355%K +0.399%G +0.013% | 4.6% | 2026-09-19 14:01 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -5.27%E -4.92%K -75.27%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV +3.20%E +0.355%K +0.399%G +0.013% | 4.6% | 2026-09-19 14:01 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 89.11%EV -4.38%E -4.06%K -54.79%G +0.000% | 8.84I 11.31%NM 10.89%EV +1.36%E +0.154%K +0.174%G +0.002% | 3.9% | 2026-09-19 23:19 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 88.98%EV -3.50%E -3.21%K -38.87%G +0.000% | 8.80I 11.36%NM 11.02%EV +0.902%E +0.102%K +0.116%G +0.001% | 3.1% | 2026-09-18 10:54 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 89.02%EV -4.38%E -4.06%K -54.79%G +0.000% | 8.76I 11.42%NM 10.98%EV +0.443%E +0.051%K +0.057%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-09-19 14:01 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 89.02%EV -4.38%E -4.06%K -54.79%G +0.000% | 8.76I 11.42%NM 10.98%EV +0.443%E +0.051%K +0.057%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-09-19 14:01 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.99%EV -5.27%E -4.92%K -75.27%G +0.000% | 8.65I 11.56%NM 11.01%EV -0.818%E -0.095%K -0.107%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-19 23:54 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.84%EV -4.38%E -4.06%K -54.79%G +0.000% | 8.60I 11.63%NM 11.16%EV -1.39%E -0.162%K -0.183%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-19 14:16 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.73%EV -4.38%E -4.06%K -54.79%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.27%EV -2.54%E -0.299%K -0.338%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-09-18 00:40 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.73%EV -4.38%E -4.06%K -54.79%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.27%EV -2.54%E -0.299%K -0.338%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-09-17 20:50 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -5.27%E -4.92%K -75.27%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV -2.54%E -0.299%K -0.338%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-19 23:49 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -5.27%E -4.92%K -75.27%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV -2.54%E -0.299%K -0.338%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-17 21:39 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -5.27%E -4.92%K -75.27%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV -2.54%E -0.299%K -0.338%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-17 21:39 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -5.27%E -4.92%K -75.27%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV -2.54%E -0.299%K -0.338%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-19 14:01 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.42%EV -4.38%E -4.06%K -54.79%G +0.000% | 8.25I 12.12%NM 11.58%EV -5.40%E -0.655%K -0.745%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-17 14:34 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.17%EV -4.38%E -4.06%K -54.79%G +0.000% | 8.05I 12.42%NM 11.83%EV -7.70%E -0.956%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-19 23:04 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -4.38%E -4.06%K -54.79%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -8.27%E -1.03%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-19 23:39 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -4.38%E -4.06%K -54.79%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -8.27%E -1.03%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-17 19:50 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%EV -5.27%E -4.92%K -75.27%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%EV -8.27%E -1.03%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-17 19:49 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%EV -5.27%E -4.92%K -75.27%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%EV -8.27%E -1.03%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-19 23:14 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%EV -5.27%E -4.92%K -75.27%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%EV -8.27%E -1.03%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-19 23:14 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%EV -5.27%E -4.92%K -75.27%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%EV -8.27%E -1.03%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-19 15:16 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%EV -5.27%E -4.92%K -75.27%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%EV -8.27%E -1.03%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-19 23:14 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%EV -5.27%E -4.92%K -75.27%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%EV -8.27%E -1.03%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-19 15:10 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -6.15%E -5.81%K -102.57%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -8.27%E -1.03%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-19 14:01 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -6.15%E -5.81%K -102.57%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -8.27%E -1.03%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-19 14:01 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.01%EV -4.38%E -4.06%K -54.79%G +0.000% | 7.93I 12.61%NM 11.99%EV -9.07%E -1.14%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-19 16:54 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 87.80%EV -5.27%E -4.92%K -75.27%G +0.000% | 7.70I 12.99%NM 12.20%EV -11.71%E -1.52%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-19 16:57 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 87.21%EV -2.61%E -2.38%K -26.13%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.79%EV -14.00%E -1.87%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-19 16:49 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 87.31%EV -3.50%E -3.21%K -38.87%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV -14.00%E -1.87%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-18 00:00 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 87.31%EV -3.50%E -3.21%K -38.87%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV -14.00%E -1.87%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-18 10:54 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 87.31%EV -3.50%E -3.21%K -38.87%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV -14.00%E -1.87%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-17 14:40 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 87.51%EV -5.27%E -4.92%K -75.27%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.49%EV -14.00%E -1.87%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-19 14:15 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 86.69%EV -3.50%E -3.21%K -38.87%G +0.000% | 7.10I 14.08%NM 13.31%EV -18.59%E -2.62%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-19 21:59 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 86.53%EV -3.50%E -3.21%K -38.87%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV -19.74%E -2.82%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-19 14:10 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 86.53%EV -3.50%E -3.21%K -38.87%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV -19.74%E -2.82%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-19 14:01 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 85.64%EV -3.50%E -3.21%K -38.87%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.36%EV -25.47%E -3.92%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-19 23:47 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 85.75%EV -4.38%E -4.06%K -54.79%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.25%EV -25.47%E -3.92%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-19 13:58 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.10I 90.91%NM 90.89% | 10.98I 9.11%NM 9.11% | 0.0% | 2026-09-19 23:34 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.11I 90.09%NM 89.83% | 9.80I 10.20%NM 10.17% | 0.3% | 2026-09-19 23:49 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.11I 90.09%NM 89.64% | 9.60I 10.42%NM 10.36% | 0.5% | 2026-09-19 23:49 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.11I 90.09%NM 89.64% | 9.60I 10.42%NM 10.36% | 0.5% | 2026-09-19 23:49 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.11I 90.09%NM 89.64% | 9.60I 10.42%NM 10.36% | 0.5% | 2026-09-19 23:49 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.11I 90.09%NM 89.64% | 9.60I 10.42%NM 10.36% | 0.5% | 2026-09-19 23:55 |