Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles v Arkansas State Red Wolves

Kickoff: 2026-10-17 23:02 UTC

Final: Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles 13–23 Arkansas State Red Wolves

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

47 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

35%

65%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (Local)

Prediction 34.71%2.88fair odd

EV -1.07%

Edge -0.376%

Kelly -0.580%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

33.26%34.69%34.83%35.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.502.752.752.8540.00%36.41%36.36%35.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Arkansas State Red Wolves (Visit)

Prediction 65.29%1.53fair odd

EV -2.72%

Edge -1.83%

Kelly -5.55%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.49

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

64.10%65.31%65.17%66.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.401.451.451.4971.43%69.15%68.97%67.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (Local): 34.71%; Arkansas State Red Wolves (Visit): 65.29%. For Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.88. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.85, with an expected value of -1.07%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (47 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
ATG (SE)🎯	2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -1.07%E -0.376%K -0.580%G +0.000%	1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -6.64%E -4.64%K -15.44%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-10-17 22:40
Unibet (NL)🎯	2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -1.07%E -0.376%K -0.580%G +0.000%	1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -6.64%E -4.64%K -15.44%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-10-17 22:40
Unibet (SE)🎯	2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -1.07%E -0.376%K -0.580%G +0.000%	1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -6.64%E -4.64%K -15.44%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-10-17 22:40
BetRivers🎯	2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -1.07%E -0.376%K -0.580%G +0.000%	1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -6.64%E -4.64%K -15.44%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-10-17 22:40
Svenska Spel🎯	2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -1.07%E -0.376%K -0.580%G +0.000%	1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -6.64%E -4.64%K -15.44%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-10-17 22:40
Bally Bet🎯	2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -1.07%E -0.376%K -0.580%G +0.000%	1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -6.64%E -4.64%K -15.44%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-10-17 22:39
betPARX🎯	2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -1.07%E -0.376%K -0.580%G +0.000%	1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -6.64%E -4.64%K -15.44%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-10-17 22:40
Hard Rock Bet🎯	2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -1.07%E -0.376%K -0.580%G +0.000%	1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -6.64%E -4.64%K -15.44%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-10-17 22:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯	2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -1.07%E -0.376%K -0.580%G +0.000%	1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -7.29%E -5.13%K -17.36%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-10-17 22:40
Unibet🎯	2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -1.07%E -0.376%K -0.580%G +0.000%	1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -7.29%E -5.13%K -17.36%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-10-17 22:40
BetOnline.ag🎯	2.83I 35.34%NM 34.19%EV -1.77%E -0.624%K -0.966%G +0.000%	1.47I 68.03%NM 65.81%EV -4.03%E -2.74%K -8.56%G +0.000%	3.4%	2026-10-17 22:00
LowVig.ag🎯	2.83I 35.34%NM 34.19%EV -1.77%E -0.624%K -0.966%G +0.000%	1.47I 68.03%NM 65.81%EV -4.03%E -2.74%K -8.56%G +0.000%	3.4%	2026-10-17 22:00
Pinnacle🎯	2.81I 35.59%NM 34.50%EV -2.46%E -0.876%K -1.36%G +0.000%	1.48I 67.57%NM 65.50%EV -3.37%E -2.28%K -7.03%G +0.000%	3.2%	2026-10-17 22:50
BetUS🎯	2.80I 35.71%NM 34.58%EV -2.81%E -1.00%K -1.56%G +0.000%	1.48I 67.57%NM 65.42%EV -3.37%E -2.28%K -7.03%G +0.000%	3.3%	2026-10-17 22:04
DraftKings🎯	2.80I 35.71%NM 34.27%EV -2.81%E -1.00%K -1.56%G +0.000%	1.46I 68.49%NM 65.73%EV -4.68%E -3.20%K -10.17%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-10-17 22:00
Bovada🎯	2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -2.81%E -1.00%K -1.56%G +0.000%	1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -5.33%E -3.68%K -11.85%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-10-17 23:00
GTbets🎯	2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -2.81%E -1.00%K -1.56%G +0.000%	1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -5.33%E -3.68%K -11.85%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-10-17 22:00
BetAnything🎯	2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -2.81%E -1.00%K -1.56%G +0.000%	1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -5.33%E -3.68%K -11.85%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-10-17 22:00
Everygame🎯	2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -2.81%E -1.00%K -1.56%G +0.000%	1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -5.33%E -3.68%K -11.85%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-10-17 22:00
Unibet (UK)🎯	2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -2.81%E -1.00%K -1.56%G +0.000%	1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.98%E -4.16%K -13.60%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-10-17 22:00
MyBookie.ag🎯	2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -2.81%E -1.00%K -1.56%G +0.000%	1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.98%E -4.16%K -13.60%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-10-17 22:03
Coolbet🎯	2.78I 35.97%NM 34.28%EV -3.50%E -1.26%K -1.97%G +0.000%	1.45I 68.97%NM 65.72%EV -5.33%E -3.68%K -11.85%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-10-17 22:44
theScore Bet🎯	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -4.54%E -1.65%K -2.60%G +0.000%	1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -3.37%E -2.28%K -7.03%G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-10-17 23:00
BetMGM🎯	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -4.54%E -1.65%K -2.60%G +0.000%	1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -3.37%E -2.28%K -7.03%G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-10-17 22:05
Caesars🎯	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV -4.54%E -1.65%K -2.60%G +0.000%	1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -4.03%E -2.74%K -8.56%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-10-17 22:00
Bet Right🎯	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -4.54%E -1.65%K -2.60%G +0.000%	1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -5.33%E -3.68%K -11.85%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-10-17 22:45
picklebet_au🎯	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -4.54%E -1.65%K -2.60%G +0.000%	1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.98%E -4.16%K -13.60%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-10-17 22:05
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	2.70I 37.04%NM 35.10%EV -6.28%E -2.33%K -3.69%G +0.000%	1.46I 68.49%NM 64.90%EV -4.68%E -3.20%K -10.17%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-10-17 22:59
Dabble (AU)🎯	2.70I 37.04%NM 35.10%EV -6.28%E -2.33%K -3.69%G +0.000%	1.46I 68.49%NM 64.90%EV -4.68%E -3.20%K -10.17%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-10-17 22:00
Betsson🎯	2.70I 37.04%NM 35.10%EV -6.28%E -2.33%K -3.69%G +0.000%	1.46I 68.49%NM 64.90%EV -4.68%E -3.20%K -10.17%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-10-17 22:10
Betr (AU)🎯	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -6.28%E -2.33%K -3.69%G +0.000%	1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -5.33%E -3.68%K -11.85%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-10-17 22:10
TAB🎯	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -6.28%E -2.33%K -3.69%G +0.000%	1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -5.33%E -3.68%K -11.85%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-10-17 22:00
NordicBet🎯	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -6.28%E -2.33%K -3.69%G +0.000%	1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -5.98%E -4.16%K -13.60%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-10-17 22:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV -6.28%E -2.33%K -3.69%G +0.000%	1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%EV -6.64%E -4.64%K -15.44%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-10-17 23:00
Fliff🎯	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV -6.28%E -2.33%K -3.69%G +0.000%	1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%EV -6.64%E -4.64%K -15.44%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-10-17 23:00
Coral🎯	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -6.28%E -2.33%K -3.69%G +0.000%	1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -8.60%E -6.14%K -21.49%G +0.000%	8.5%	2026-10-17 23:00
Marathon Bet🎯	2.69I 37.17%NM 34.87%EV -6.63%E -2.46%K -3.92%G +0.000%	1.44I 69.44%NM 65.13%EV -5.98%E -4.16%K -13.60%G +0.000%	6.6%	2026-10-17 23:00
FanDuel🎯	2.68I 37.31%NM 35.73%EV -6.97%E -2.60%K -4.15%G +0.000%	1.49I 67.11%NM 64.27%EV -2.72%E -1.83%K -5.55%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-10-17 22:35
Neds🎯	2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -8.02%E -3.02%K -4.86%G +0.000%	1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -3.37%E -2.28%K -7.03%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-10-17 22:50
Betway🎯	2.65I 37.74%NM 35.05%EV -8.02%E -3.02%K -4.86%G +0.000%	1.43I 69.93%NM 64.95%EV -6.64%E -4.64%K -15.44%G +0.000%	7.7%	2026-10-17 23:00
SportsBet🎯	2.64I 37.88%NM 35.45%EV -8.36%E -3.17%K -5.10%G +0.000%	1.45I 68.97%NM 64.55%EV -5.33%E -3.68%K -11.85%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-10-17 22:49
betano_uk🎯	2.62I 38.17%NM 35.63%EV -9.06%E -3.46%K -5.59%G +0.000%	1.45I 68.97%NM 64.37%EV -5.33%E -3.68%K -11.85%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-10-17 22:53
Bet Victor🎯	2.62I 38.17%NM 35.63%EV -9.06%E -3.46%K -5.59%G +0.000%	1.45I 68.97%NM 64.37%EV -5.33%E -3.68%K -11.85%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-10-17 22:54
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -9.06%E -3.46%K -5.59%G +0.000%	1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -5.98%E -4.16%K -13.60%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-10-17 22:45
betfred_uk🎯	2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -9.75%E -3.75%K -6.09%G +0.000%	1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -5.33%E -3.68%K -11.85%G +0.000%	7.4%	2026-10-17 22:05
LeoVegas🎯	2.60I 38.46%NM 35.32%EV -9.75%E -3.75%K -6.09%G +0.000%	1.42I 70.42%NM 64.68%EV -7.29%E -5.13%K -17.36%G +0.000%	8.9%	2026-10-17 22:45
Paddy Power🎯	2.50I 40.00%NM 35.90%EV -13.22%E -5.29%K -8.81%G +0.000%	1.40I 71.43%NM 64.10%EV -8.60%E -6.14%K -21.49%G +0.000%	11.4%	2026-10-17 22:50

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (9)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
BetOpenly◎	3.00I 33.33%NM 33.33%	1.50I 66.67%NM 66.67%	0.0%	2026-10-17 22:59
Matchbook◎	2.98I 33.56%NM 33.33%	1.49I 67.11%NM 66.67%	0.7%	2026-10-17 22:55
ProphetX◎	2.96I 33.78%NM 33.48%	1.49I 67.11%NM 66.52%	0.9%	2026-10-17 23:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	2.96I 33.78%NM 33.48%	1.49I 67.11%NM 66.52%	0.9%	2026-10-17 23:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	2.96I 33.78%NM 33.48%	1.49I 67.11%NM 66.52%	0.9%	2026-10-17 23:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	2.96I 33.78%NM 33.48%	1.49I 67.11%NM 66.52%	0.9%	2026-10-17 23:00
Kalshi◎	2.94I 34.01%NM 33.63%	1.49I 67.11%NM 66.37%	1.1%	2026-10-17 22:40
Polymarket◎	2.94I 34.01%NM 33.63%	1.49I 67.11%NM 66.37%	1.1%	2026-10-17 21:59
Novig◎	2.94I 34.01%NM 33.63%	1.49I 67.11%NM 66.37%	1.1%	2026-10-17 22:00