Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

SMU Mustangs v Missouri State Bears

Kickoff: 2026-09-27 01:10 UTC

Final: SMU Mustangs 34–24 Missouri State Bears

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

95%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

SMU Mustangs (Local)

Prediction 95.41%1.05fair odd

EV -2.68%

Edge -2.63%

Kelly -133.96%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

92.24%95.23%95.28%97.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.001.011.011.02100.00%99.05%99.01%98.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Missouri State Bears (Visit)

Prediction 4.59%21.80fair odd

EV +65.15%

Edge +1.81%

Kelly +1.86%

Growth +1.21%

assuming max odds 36.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

2.70%4.77%4.72%7.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

12.0020.4519.0036.008.33%4.89%5.26%2.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: SMU Mustangs (Local): 95.41%; Missouri State Bears (Visit): 4.59%. For Missouri State Bears (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 21.80. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 36.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +65.15%.

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
theScore Bet🎯	1.00I 100.00%NM 97.30%EV -4.59%E -4.59%K +0.000%G +0.000%	36.00I 2.78%NM 2.70%EV +65.15%E +1.81%K +1.86%G +1.21%	2.8%	2026-09-26 15:09
Fanatics🎯	1.01I 99.01%NM 96.63%EV -3.63%E -3.60%K -363.34%G +0.000%	29.00I 3.45%NM 3.37%EV +33.04%E +1.14%K +1.18%G +0.390%	2.5%	2026-09-26 21:55
Neds🎯	1.01I 99.01%NM 96.63%EV -3.63%E -3.60%K -363.34%G +0.000%	29.00I 3.45%NM 3.37%EV +33.04%E +1.14%K +1.18%G +0.390%	2.5%	2026-09-26 23:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	1.01I 99.01%NM 96.63%EV -3.63%E -3.60%K -363.34%G +0.000%	29.00I 3.45%NM 3.37%EV +33.04%E +1.14%K +1.18%G +0.390%	2.5%	2026-09-26 23:45
BetMGM🎯	1.01I 99.01%NM 96.63%EV -3.63%E -3.60%K -363.34%G +0.000%	29.00I 3.45%NM 3.37%EV +33.04%E +1.14%K +1.18%G +0.390%	2.5%	2026-09-26 23:35
DraftKings🎯	1.01I 99.01%NM 96.26%EV -3.63%E -3.60%K -363.34%G +0.000%	26.00I 3.85%NM 3.74%EV +19.28%E +0.741%K +0.771%G +0.149%	2.9%	2026-09-26 17:55
FanDuel🎯	1.01I 99.01%NM 95.79%EV -3.63%E -3.60%K -363.34%G +0.000%	23.00I 4.35%NM 4.21%EV +5.51%E +0.240%K +0.251%G +0.014%	3.4%	2026-09-26 22:30
Caesars🎯	1.01I 99.01%NM 95.61%EV -3.63%E -3.60%K -363.34%G +0.000%	22.00I 4.55%NM 4.39%EV +0.926%E +0.042%K +0.044%G +0.000%	3.6%	2026-09-20 18:09
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.00I 100.00%NM 95.45%EV -4.59%E -4.59%K +0.000%G +0.000%	21.00I 4.76%NM 4.55%EV -3.66%E -0.174%K -0.183%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-09-26 23:40
Betway🎯	1.02I 98.04%NM 94.91%EV -2.68%E -2.63%K -133.96%G +0.000%	19.00I 5.26%NM 5.09%EV -12.84%E -0.676%K -0.713%G +0.000%	3.3%	2026-09-26 22:24
Unibet (UK)🎯	1.01I 99.01%NM 94.95%EV -3.63%E -3.60%K -363.34%G +0.000%	19.00I 5.26%NM 5.05%EV -12.84%E -0.676%K -0.713%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-09-26 22:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.01I 99.01%NM 94.95%EV -3.63%E -3.60%K -363.34%G +0.000%	19.00I 5.26%NM 5.05%EV -12.84%E -0.676%K -0.713%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-09-26 15:09
Hard Rock Bet🎯	1.01I 99.01%NM 94.82%EV -3.63%E -3.60%K -363.34%G +0.000%	18.50I 5.41%NM 5.18%EV -15.13%E -0.818%K -0.865%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-09-26 21:59
MyBookie.ag🎯	1.01I 99.01%NM 94.31%EV -3.63%E -3.60%K -363.34%G +0.000%	16.75I 5.97%NM 5.69%EV -23.16%E -1.38%K -1.47%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-09-26 22:00
Coolbet🎯	1.01I 99.01%NM 94.23%EV -3.63%E -3.60%K -363.34%G +0.000%	16.50I 6.06%NM 5.77%EV -24.31%E -1.47%K -1.57%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-09-26 15:09
Bet Right🎯	1.01I 99.01%NM 94.06%EV -3.63%E -3.60%K -363.34%G +0.000%	16.00I 6.25%NM 5.94%EV -26.60%E -1.66%K -1.77%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-09-20 18:09
SportsBet🎯	1.00I 100.00%NM 93.75%EV -4.59%E -4.59%K +0.000%G +0.000%	15.00I 6.67%NM 6.25%EV -31.19%E -2.08%K -2.23%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-09-26 22:39
Betr (AU)🎯	1.01I 99.01%NM 93.38%EV -3.63%E -3.60%K -363.34%G +0.000%	14.25I 7.02%NM 6.62%EV -34.63%E -2.43%K -2.61%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-09-20 15:11
Betsson🎯	1.02I 98.04%NM 93.21%EV -2.68%E -2.63%K -133.96%G +0.000%	14.00I 7.14%NM 6.79%EV -35.77%E -2.56%K -2.75%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-09-26 23:05
LeoVegas🎯	1.01I 99.01%NM 93.27%EV -3.63%E -3.60%K -363.34%G +0.000%	14.00I 7.14%NM 6.73%EV -35.77%E -2.56%K -2.75%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-09-26 21:14
betano_uk🎯	1.01I 99.01%NM 92.24%EV -3.63%E -3.60%K -363.34%G +0.000%	12.00I 8.33%NM 7.76%EV -44.95%E -3.75%K -4.09%G +0.000%	7.3%	2026-09-26 21:59
Bet Victor🎯	1.01I 99.01%NM 92.24%EV -3.63%E -3.60%K -363.34%G +0.000%	12.00I 8.33%NM 7.76%EV -44.95%E -3.75%K -4.09%G +0.000%	7.3%	2026-09-26 22:04

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (7)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
BetOpenly◎	1.02I 98.04%NM 98.46%	65.00I 1.54%NM 1.54%	-0.4%	2026-09-27 00:15
Novig◎	1.02I 98.04%NM 97.90%	47.62I 2.10%NM 2.10%	0.1%	2026-09-27 00:35
ProphetX◎	1.02I 98.04%NM 97.39%	38.00I 2.63%NM 2.61%	0.7%	2026-09-27 00:45
Matchbook◎	1.01I 99.01%NM 97.65%	42.00I 2.38%NM 2.35%	1.4%	2026-09-27 00:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	1.01I 99.01%NM 97.65%	42.00I 2.38%NM 2.35%	1.4%	2026-09-27 00:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	1.01I 99.01%NM 97.65%	42.00I 2.38%NM 2.35%	1.4%	2026-09-27 00:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	1.01I 99.01%NM 97.65%	42.00I 2.38%NM 2.35%	1.4%	2026-09-27 00:40