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San Diego State Aztecs v Texas State Bobcats
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
San Diego State Aztecs (Local)
Prediction 24.80%4.03fair odd
EV +1.67%
Edge +0.408%
Kelly +0.539%
Growth +0.009%
assuming max odds 4.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.08%24.75%24.85%26.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.873.904.1027.78%25.86%25.64%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Texas State Bobcats (Visit)
Prediction 75.20%1.33fair odd
EV -2.99%
Edge -2.32%
Kelly -10.31%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.29
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
73.77%75.25%75.15%76.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.221.261.261.2981.97%79.38%79.37%77.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: San Diego State Aztecs (Local): 24.80%; Texas State Bobcats (Visit): 75.20%. For San Diego State Aztecs (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.03. 10 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.67%.
Sportsbook Odds (43 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetRivers🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV +1.67%E +0.408%K +0.539%G +0.009% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -6.75%E -5.44%K -28.12%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-04 02:15 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV +1.67%E +0.408%K +0.539%G +0.009% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -6.75%E -5.44%K -28.12%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-04 02:15 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV +1.67%E +0.408%K +0.539%G +0.009% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -6.75%E -5.44%K -28.12%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-04 02:15 |
| betPARX🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV +1.67%E +0.408%K +0.539%G +0.009% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -6.75%E -5.44%K -28.12%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-04 02:14 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV +1.67%E +0.408%K +0.539%G +0.009% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -6.75%E -5.44%K -28.12%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-04 02:15 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV +1.67%E +0.408%K +0.539%G +0.009% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -6.75%E -5.44%K -28.12%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-04 02:15 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV +1.67%E +0.408%K +0.539%G +0.009% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -6.75%E -5.44%K -28.12%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-04 02:14 |
| Unibet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08%EV +1.67%E +0.408%K +0.539%G +0.009% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.92%EV -7.50%E -6.10%K -32.61%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-04 02:15 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08%EV +1.67%E +0.408%K +0.539%G +0.009% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.92%EV -7.50%E -6.10%K -32.61%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-04 02:15 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.87%EV +0.431%E +0.106%K +0.141%G +0.001% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 76.13%EV -4.49%E -3.54%K -16.64%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-10-04 00:40 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.95%EV -0.809%E -0.202%K -0.270%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.05%EV -5.25%E -4.16%K -20.17%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-10-04 02:25 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -0.809%E -0.202%K -0.270%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -6.75%E -5.44%K -28.12%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-04 02:14 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.33%EV -2.05%E -0.519%K -0.694%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.67%EV -4.49%E -3.54%K -16.64%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-10-03 13:35 |
| GTbets🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.33%EV -2.05%E -0.519%K -0.694%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.67%EV -4.49%E -3.54%K -16.64%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-10-04 00:40 |
| Everygame🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.33%EV -2.05%E -0.519%K -0.694%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.67%EV -4.49%E -3.54%K -16.64%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-10-04 01:03 |
| Caesars🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.18%EV -2.05%E -0.519%K -0.694%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.82%EV -5.25%E -4.16%K -20.17%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-03 13:05 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.18%EV -2.05%E -0.519%K -0.694%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.82%EV -5.25%E -4.16%K -20.17%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-04 00:40 |
| BetUS🎯 | 3.93I 25.45%NM 24.42%EV -2.54%E -0.647%K -0.868%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.58%EV -4.49%E -3.54%K -16.64%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-10-04 01:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.92I 25.51%NM 24.47%EV -2.79%E -0.712%K -0.956%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.53%EV -4.49%E -3.54%K -16.64%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-10-03 14:50 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.92I 25.51%NM 24.47%EV -2.79%E -0.712%K -0.956%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.53%EV -4.49%E -3.54%K -16.64%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-10-03 14:50 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.86%EV -3.29%E -0.843%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 75.14%EV -2.99%E -2.32%K -10.31%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-10-04 00:40 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.56%EV -3.29%E -0.843%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.44%EV -4.49%E -3.54%K -16.64%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-10-03 03:35 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.56%EV -3.29%E -0.843%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.44%EV -4.49%E -3.54%K -16.64%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-10-03 00:05 |
| Fliff🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -4.53%E -1.18%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -5.25%E -4.16%K -20.17%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-04 02:25 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.20%EV -5.77%E -1.52%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.80%EV -3.74%E -2.92%K -13.36%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-10-04 01:10 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -5.77%E -1.52%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -4.49%E -3.54%K -16.64%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-03 03:34 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -5.77%E -1.52%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -4.49%E -3.54%K -16.64%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-04 02:25 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.78I 26.46%NM 24.85%EV -6.26%E -1.66%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.15%EV -6.00%E -4.80%K -23.99%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-10-04 02:25 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -7.01%E -1.87%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -2.99%E -2.32%K -10.31%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-10-04 02:24 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -7.01%E -1.87%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -3.74%E -2.92%K -13.36%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-10-03 12:14 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -7.01%E -1.87%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -4.49%E -3.54%K -16.64%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-03 23:30 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.73I 26.81%NM 25.25%EV -7.50%E -2.01%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.75%EV -5.25%E -4.16%K -20.17%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-04 02:10 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.85%EV -8.25%E -2.23%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.15%EV -2.99%E -2.32%K -10.31%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-10-04 01:10 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -8.25%E -2.23%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -3.74%E -2.92%K -13.36%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-04 01:10 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -8.25%E -2.23%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -3.74%E -2.92%K -13.36%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-04 01:10 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -8.25%E -2.23%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.60%EV -5.25%E -4.16%K -20.17%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-04 02:25 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -8.25%E -2.23%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.75%EV -6.00%E -4.80%K -23.99%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-04 01:20 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -10.73%E -2.98%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -3.74%E -2.92%K -13.36%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-04 01:20 |
| TAB🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -10.73%E -2.98%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -3.74%E -2.92%K -13.36%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-04 01:20 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -10.73%E -2.98%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -6.00%E -4.80%K -23.99%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-10-03 23:30 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -10.73%E -2.98%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -6.00%E -4.80%K -23.99%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-10-03 23:30 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.31%EV -10.73%E -2.98%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 74.69%EV -8.25%E -6.77%K -37.52%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-10-03 03:33 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.31%EV -10.73%E -2.98%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 74.69%EV -8.25%E -6.77%K -37.52%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-10-03 03:34 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 4.35I 22.99%NM 23.01% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 76.99% | -0.1% | 2026-10-04 02:10 |
| BetOpenly◎ | 4.42I 22.62%NM 22.59% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 77.41% | 0.1% | 2026-10-04 02:25 |
| Novig◎ | 4.26I 23.47%NM 23.24% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 76.76% | 1.0% | 2026-10-04 02:25 |
| ProphetX◎ | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.07% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 75.93% | 1.3% | 2026-10-04 02:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.39% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 75.61% | 2.5% | 2026-10-04 02:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.00% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 75.00% | 2.6% | 2026-10-04 02:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.00% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 75.00% | 2.6% | 2026-10-04 02:25 |