Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

San Diego State Aztecs v Fresno State Bulldogs

2026-10-18 02:30 UTC — NCAAF

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

25%

75%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

San Diego State Aztecs (Local)

Prediction 24.66%4.06fair odd

EV -3.34%

Edge -0.852%

Kelly -1.14%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.92

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

23.88%24.73%24.66%25.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.603.803.803.9227.78%26.30%26.32%25.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Fresno State Bulldogs (Visit)

Prediction 75.34%1.33fair odd

EV -3.56%

Edge -2.78%

Kelly -12.73%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.28

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

74.53%75.27%75.34%76.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.201.241.251.2883.33%80.32%80.32%78.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: San Diego State Aztecs (Local): 24.66%; Fresno State Bulldogs (Visit): 75.34%. For San Diego State Aztecs (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.06. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.92, with an expected value of -3.34%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
SportsBet🎯	3.92I 25.51%NM 23.88%EV -3.34%E -0.852%K -1.14%G +0.000%	1.23I 81.30%NM 76.12%EV -7.33%E -5.96%K -31.87%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-10-11 13:50
FanDuel🎯	3.90I 25.64%NM 24.56%EV -3.83%E -0.982%K -1.32%G +0.000%	1.27I 78.74%NM 75.44%EV -4.32%E -3.40%K -15.99%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-10-11 13:49
Coolbet🎯	3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -3.83%E -0.982%K -1.32%G +0.000%	1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -5.07%E -4.02%K -19.50%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-10-11 13:59
theScore Bet🎯	3.80I 26.32%NM 25.20%EV -6.30%E -1.66%K -2.25%G +0.000%	1.28I 78.13%NM 74.80%EV -3.56%E -2.78%K -12.73%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-10-11 13:54
Unibet (UK)🎯	3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -6.30%E -1.66%K -2.25%G +0.000%	1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -5.82%E -4.66%K -23.29%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-10-11 13:48
ReBet🎯	3.75I 26.67%NM 24.85%EV -7.53%E -2.01%K -2.74%G +0.000%	1.24I 80.65%NM 75.15%EV -6.58%E -5.30%K -27.40%G +0.000%	7.3%	2026-10-11 13:49
Paddy Power🎯	3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -7.53%E -2.01%K -2.74%G +0.000%	1.20I 83.33%NM 75.76%EV -9.59%E -7.99%K -47.95%G +0.000%	10.0%	2026-10-11 13:49
LeoVegas🎯	3.60I 27.78%NM 25.47%EV -11.23%E -3.12%K -4.32%G +0.000%	1.23I 81.30%NM 74.53%EV -7.33%E -5.96%K -31.87%G +0.000%	9.1%	2026-10-11 13:49

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Kalshi◎	4.00I 25.00%NM 24.24%	1.28I 78.13%NM 75.76%	3.1%	2026-10-11 13:50
Polymarket◎	3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%	1.27I 78.74%NM 74.45%	5.8%	2026-10-11 13:49