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San Diego State Aztecs v Fresno State Bulldogs
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
San Diego State Aztecs (Local)
Prediction 31.07%3.22fair odd
EV +10.28%
Edge +2.90%
Kelly +4.03%
Growth +0.415%
assuming max odds 3.55
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.80%30.92%31.06%33.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.753.103.103.5536.36%32.31%32.26%28.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Fresno State Bulldogs (Visit)
Prediction 68.93%1.45fair odd
EV -1.42%
Edge -0.996%
Kelly -3.31%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.43
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
66.59%69.08%68.94%73.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.301.371.371.4376.92%73.09%72.99%69.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: San Diego State Aztecs (Local): 31.07%; Fresno State Bulldogs (Visit): 68.93%. For San Diego State Aztecs (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.22. 13 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.55, corresponding to a positive expected value of +10.28%.
Sportsbook Odds (44 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV +10.28%E +2.90%K +4.03%G +0.415% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -10.39%E -7.99%K -34.62%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-18 02:10 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV +2.52%E +0.763%K +1.09%G +0.028% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%EV -7.63%E -5.69%K -22.44%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-18 02:18 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV +2.52%E +0.763%K +1.09%G +0.028% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%EV -7.63%E -5.69%K -22.44%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-18 02:19 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV +2.52%E +0.763%K +1.09%G +0.028% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%EV -7.63%E -5.69%K -22.44%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-18 02:19 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV +2.52%E +0.763%K +1.09%G +0.028% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%EV -7.63%E -5.69%K -22.44%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-18 02:20 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV +2.52%E +0.763%K +1.09%G +0.028% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -8.32%E -6.25%K -25.21%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-18 02:20 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV +2.52%E +0.763%K +1.09%G +0.028% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -8.32%E -6.25%K -25.21%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-18 02:19 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV +2.52%E +0.763%K +1.09%G +0.028% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -8.32%E -6.25%K -25.21%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-18 02:20 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV +2.52%E +0.763%K +1.09%G +0.028% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -9.01%E -6.82%K -28.15%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-18 02:19 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV +2.52%E +0.763%K +1.09%G +0.028% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -9.01%E -6.82%K -28.15%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-18 02:20 |
| BetUS🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.65%EV +0.964%E +0.297%K +0.429%G +0.004% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 70.35%EV -5.56%E -4.06%K -15.03%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-10-18 02:25 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.65%EV +0.964%E +0.297%K +0.429%G +0.004% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 70.35%EV -5.56%E -4.06%K -15.03%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-10-18 02:25 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV +0.964%E +0.297%K +0.429%G +0.004% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -6.25%E -4.60%K -17.36%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-10-18 02:15 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.77%EV -2.14%E -0.680%K -0.996%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 69.23%EV -3.49%E -2.49%K -8.73%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-10-18 02:20 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV -2.14%E -0.680%K -0.996%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -4.87%E -3.53%K -12.82%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-10-18 02:15 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV -2.14%E -0.680%K -0.996%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -4.87%E -3.53%K -12.82%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-10-18 02:14 |
| GTbets🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV -2.14%E -0.680%K -0.996%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -4.87%E -3.53%K -12.82%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-10-18 02:25 |
| ReBet🎯 | 3.12I 32.05%NM 30.82%EV -3.07%E -0.985%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 69.18%EV -4.18%E -3.01%K -10.72%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-10-18 02:19 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.11%EV -3.70%E -1.19%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.89%EV -3.49%E -2.49%K -8.73%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-10-18 02:25 |
| Everygame🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.11%EV -3.70%E -1.19%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.89%EV -3.49%E -2.49%K -8.73%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-10-18 02:17 |
| Caesars🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -3.70%E -1.19%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -4.87%E -3.53%K -12.82%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-18 02:19 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -3.70%E -1.19%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -5.56%E -4.06%K -15.03%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-18 02:19 |
| Fliff🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -3.70%E -1.19%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -5.56%E -4.06%K -15.03%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-18 02:19 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.07I 32.57%NM 31.32%EV -4.63%E -1.51%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.68%EV -3.49%E -2.49%K -8.73%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-10-18 02:15 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.07I 32.57%NM 31.32%EV -4.63%E -1.51%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.68%EV -3.49%E -2.49%K -8.73%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-10-18 02:15 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.07I 32.57%NM 31.01%EV -4.63%E -1.51%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.99%EV -4.87%E -3.53%K -12.82%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-18 02:20 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -6.80%E -2.27%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -4.87%E -3.53%K -12.82%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-18 02:19 |
| TAB🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -6.80%E -2.27%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -4.87%E -3.53%K -12.82%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-18 02:18 |
| picklebet_au🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -6.80%E -2.27%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -4.87%E -3.53%K -12.82%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-18 02:20 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -6.80%E -2.27%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -4.87%E -3.53%K -12.82%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-18 02:25 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 2.99I 33.44%NM 31.89%EV -7.11%E -2.38%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.11%EV -3.49%E -2.49%K -8.73%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-18 02:19 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.99I 33.44%NM 31.42%EV -7.11%E -2.38%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.58%EV -5.56%E -4.06%K -15.03%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-18 02:19 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.49%EV -7.42%E -2.49%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.51%EV -5.56%E -4.06%K -15.03%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-10-18 02:25 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.65%EV -8.36%E -2.83%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 67.35%EV -1.42%E -0.996%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-10-18 02:20 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -8.36%E -2.83%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -3.49%E -2.49%K -8.73%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-18 02:25 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -8.36%E -2.83%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -3.49%E -2.49%K -8.73%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-18 02:25 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.76%EV -9.91%E -3.42%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.24%EV -6.94%E -5.14%K -19.83%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-18 02:20 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.76%EV -9.91%E -3.42%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.24%EV -6.94%E -5.14%K -19.83%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-18 02:25 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.76%EV -9.91%E -3.42%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.24%EV -6.94%E -5.14%K -19.83%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-18 02:25 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.44%EV -9.91%E -3.42%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 68.56%EV -8.32%E -6.25%K -25.21%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-10-18 02:20 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.44%EV -9.91%E -3.42%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 68.56%EV -8.32%E -6.25%K -25.21%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-10-18 02:19 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.86I 34.97%NM 32.71%EV -11.15%E -3.90%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 67.29%EV -4.18%E -3.01%K -10.72%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-18 02:25 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -11.46%E -4.02%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -1.42%E -0.996%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-18 02:15 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.09%EV -14.57%E -5.30%K -8.32%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 66.91%EV -6.25%E -4.60%K -17.36%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-10-18 02:19 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ProphetX◎ | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.23% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.77% | 0.2% | 2026-10-18 02:20 |
| Novig◎ | 3.28I 30.49%NM 30.36% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.64% | 0.4% | 2026-10-18 02:25 |
| Polymarket◎ | 3.33I 30.03%NM 29.75% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 70.25% | 1.0% | 2026-10-18 02:15 |
| Kalshi◎ | 3.33I 30.03%NM 29.75% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 70.25% | 1.0% | 2026-10-18 02:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.41% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 69.59% | 1.2% | 2026-10-18 02:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.41% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 69.59% | 1.2% | 2026-10-18 02:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.41% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 69.59% | 1.2% | 2026-10-18 02:25 |