Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sacramento State Hornets v Toledo Rockets

2026-11-05 00:00 UTC — NCAAF

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

93%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sacramento State Hornets (Local)

Prediction 6.51%15.35fair odd

EV +23.77%

Edge +1.25%

Kelly +1.32%

Growth +0.314%

assuming max odds 19.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

5.09%6.51%6.05%11.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

7.5013.6414.0019.0013.33%7.33%7.14%5.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Toledo Rockets (Visit)

Prediction 93.49%1.07fair odd

EV -3.71%

Edge -3.60%

Kelly -123.65%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.03

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

88.03%93.49%93.95%94.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.011.021.021.0399.01%98.04%98.04%97.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Sacramento State Hornets (Local): 6.51%; Toledo Rockets (Visit): 93.49%. For Sacramento State Hornets (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 15.35. 4 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 19.00, producing a positive expected value of +23.77%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Betway🎯	19.00I 5.26%NM 5.09%EV +23.77%E +1.25%K +1.32%G +0.314%	1.02I 98.04%NM 94.91%EV -4.64%E -4.55%K -232.22%G +0.000%	3.3%	2026-11-01 00:40
FanDuel🎯	17.00I 5.88%NM 5.66%EV +10.74%E +0.632%K +0.671%G +0.072%	1.02I 98.04%NM 94.34%EV -4.64%E -4.55%K -232.22%G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-11-01 00:25
Fliff🎯	16.30I 6.13%NM 5.83%EV +6.18%E +0.379%K +0.404%G +0.025%	1.01I 99.01%NM 94.17%EV -5.58%E -5.52%K -557.94%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-11-01 00:55
DraftKings🎯	16.00I 6.25%NM 6.05%EV +4.23%E +0.264%K +0.282%G +0.012%	1.03I 97.09%NM 93.95%EV -3.71%E -3.60%K -123.65%G +0.000%	3.3%	2026-11-01 00:55
SportsBet🎯	14.00I 7.14%NM 6.73%EV -8.80%E -0.629%K -0.677%G +0.000%	1.01I 99.01%NM 93.27%EV -5.58%E -5.52%K -557.94%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-11-01 00:10
Unibet (UK)🎯	12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -21.83%E -1.82%K -1.98%G +0.000%	1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -3.71%E -3.60%K -123.65%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-11-01 01:00
BoyleSports🎯	12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV -21.83%E -1.82%K -1.98%G +0.000%	1.02I 98.04%NM 92.17%EV -4.64%E -4.55%K -232.22%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-11-01 00:59
LeoVegas🎯	9.00I 11.11%NM 10.18%EV -41.37%E -4.60%K -5.17%G +0.000%	1.02I 98.04%NM 89.82%EV -4.64%E -4.55%K -232.22%G +0.000%	9.2%	2026-11-01 00:55
picklebet_au🎯	7.50I 13.33%NM 11.97%EV -51.14%E -6.82%K -7.87%G +0.000%	1.02I 98.04%NM 88.03%EV -4.64%E -4.55%K -232.22%G +0.000%	11.4%	2026-11-01 00:55

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Kalshi◎	16.67I 6.00%NM 5.98%	1.06I 94.34%NM 94.02%	0.3%	2026-11-01 01:10
Polymarket◎	14.29I 7.00%NM 6.78%	1.04I 96.15%NM 93.22%	3.2%	2026-11-01 00:55
Novig◎	11.76I 8.50%NM 7.84%	1.00I 100.00%NM 92.16%	8.5%	2026-11-01 01:10