The School of Odds

Penn State Nittany Lions v Marshall Thundering Herd

2026-09-05 19:30 UTC — NCAAF

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Penn State Nittany Lions (Local)

Prediction 92.13%1.09fair odd
EV -3.26%
Edge -3.11%
Kelly -65.28%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
88.81%92.04%92.21%93.63%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.021.041.041.0598.04%96.45%96.15%95.24%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Marshall Thundering Herd (Visit)

Prediction 7.87%12.71fair odd
EV +18.06%
Edge +1.20%
Kelly +1.29%
Growth +0.233%

assuming max odds 15.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
6.37%7.96%7.79%11.19%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
8.2511.5111.6315.0012.12%8.69%8.60%6.67%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
FanDuel1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -6.03%E -5.91%K -301.39%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV +18.06%E +1.20%K +1.29%G +0.233%4.7%2026-07-23 13:20
DraftKings1.04I 96.15%NM 92.59%EV -4.19%E -4.02%K -104.63%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.41%EV +2.31%E +0.178%K +0.193%G +0.004%3.8%2026-07-13 13:40
GTbets1.04I 96.15%NM 92.59%EV -4.19%E -4.02%K -104.63%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.41%EV +2.31%E +0.178%K +0.193%G +0.004%3.8%2026-07-23 20:45
Caesars1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -5.11%E -4.96%K -170.22%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV +2.31%E +0.178%K +0.193%G +0.004%4.8%2026-06-20 20:28
Coolbet1.03I 97.09%NM 92.39%EV -5.11%E -4.96%K -170.22%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.61%EV -1.62%E -0.130%K -0.141%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-24 02:10
Svenska Spel1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -4.19%E -4.02%K -104.63%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV -5.56%E -0.463%K -0.505%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-08 17:00
ATG (SE)1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -4.19%E -4.02%K -104.63%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV -5.56%E -0.463%K -0.505%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-08 17:00
betPARX1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -4.19%E -4.02%K -104.63%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV -5.56%E -0.463%K -0.505%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-08 17:00
Bally Bet1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -4.19%E -4.02%K -104.63%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV -5.56%E -0.463%K -0.505%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-08 17:05
theScore Bet1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -4.19%E -4.02%K -104.63%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV -5.56%E -0.463%K -0.505%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-22 17:15
Bovada1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -5.11%E -4.96%K -170.22%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -5.56%E -0.463%K -0.505%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-20 14:10
Betr (AU)1.03I 97.09%NM 91.61%EV -5.11%E -4.96%K -170.22%G +0.000%11.25I 8.89%NM 8.39%EV -11.46%E -1.02%K -1.12%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-24 14:00
Hard Rock Bet1.05I 95.24%NM 91.29%EV -3.26%E -3.11%K -65.28%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.71%EV -13.43%E -1.22%K -1.34%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-22 16:10
BetRivers1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -4.19%E -4.02%K -104.63%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -13.43%E -1.22%K -1.34%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-08 17:00
Unibet (SE)1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -4.19%E -4.02%K -104.63%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -13.43%E -1.22%K -1.34%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-08 17:04
Unibet (NL)1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -4.19%E -4.02%K -104.63%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -13.43%E -1.22%K -1.34%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-08 17:05
PointsBet (AU)1.02I 98.04%NM 91.51%EV -6.03%E -5.91%K -301.39%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV -13.43%E -1.22%K -1.34%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-06 11:35
LeoVegas (SE)1.04I 96.15%NM 90.99%EV -4.19%E -4.02%K -104.63%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.01%EV -17.36%E -1.65%K -1.83%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-08 17:00
Unibet1.04I 96.15%NM 90.99%EV -4.19%E -4.02%K -104.63%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.01%EV -17.36%E -1.65%K -1.83%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-08 17:05
MyBookie.ag1.04I 96.15%NM 90.32%EV -4.19%E -4.02%K -104.63%G +0.000%9.70I 10.31%NM 9.68%EV -23.66%E -2.44%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-22 17:15
Unibet (UK)1.04I 96.15%NM 90.13%EV -4.19%E -4.02%K -104.63%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.87%EV -25.23%E -2.66%K -2.97%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-22 17:14
LeoVegas1.04I 96.15%NM 88.81%EV -4.19%E -4.02%K -104.63%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.19%EV -35.07%E -4.25%K -4.84%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-22 17:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.