Language:English
Penn State Nittany Lions v Marshall Thundering Herd
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Penn State Nittany Lions (Local)
Prediction 93.03%1.07fair odd
EV -2.32%
Edge -2.21%
Kelly -46.42%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.05
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
89.73%92.70%93.01%94.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.001.031.031.05100.00%97.32%97.09%95.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Marshall Thundering Herd (Visit)
Prediction 6.97%14.34fair odd
EV +11.56%
Edge +0.723%
Kelly +0.771%
Growth +0.089%
assuming max odds 16.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
5.99%7.30%6.99%10.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
9.0013.1213.0016.0011.11%7.62%7.69%6.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Penn State Nittany Lions (Local): 93.03%; Marshall Thundering Herd (Visit): 6.97%. For Marshall Thundering Herd (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 14.34. 15 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 16.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +11.56%.
Sportsbook Odds (45 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 94.01%EV -5.11%E -5.01%K -255.60%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.99%EV +11.56%E +0.723%K +0.771%G +0.089% | 4.3% | 2026-09-03 10:35 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 93.52%EV -3.25%E -3.13%K -81.29%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.48%EV +4.59%E +0.306%K +0.328%G +0.015% | 2.8% | 2026-09-03 17:30 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 93.57%EV -4.18%E -4.06%K -139.39%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.43%EV +4.59%E +0.306%K +0.328%G +0.015% | 3.8% | 2026-09-04 11:25 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 93.57%EV -4.18%E -4.06%K -139.39%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.43%EV +4.59%E +0.306%K +0.328%G +0.015% | 3.8% | 2026-09-03 16:20 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -5.11%E -5.01%K -255.60%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV +4.59%E +0.306%K +0.328%G +0.015% | 4.7% | 2026-09-01 19:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -5.11%E -5.01%K -255.60%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV +4.59%E +0.306%K +0.328%G +0.015% | 4.7% | 2026-08-31 21:49 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -5.11%E -5.01%K -255.60%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV +4.59%E +0.306%K +0.328%G +0.015% | 4.7% | 2026-08-31 21:49 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -5.11%E -5.01%K -255.60%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV +4.59%E +0.306%K +0.328%G +0.015% | 4.7% | 2026-08-31 21:49 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -5.11%E -5.01%K -255.60%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV +4.59%E +0.306%K +0.328%G +0.015% | 4.7% | 2026-08-31 21:49 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -5.11%E -5.01%K -255.60%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV +4.59%E +0.306%K +0.328%G +0.015% | 4.7% | 2026-08-31 21:49 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -5.11%E -5.01%K -255.60%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV +4.59%E +0.306%K +0.328%G +0.015% | 4.7% | 2026-08-31 21:49 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -5.11%E -5.01%K -255.60%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV +4.59%E +0.306%K +0.328%G +0.015% | 4.7% | 2026-08-31 21:49 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.00I 100.00%NM 93.75%EV -6.97%E -6.97%K +0.000%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.25%EV +4.59%E +0.306%K +0.328%G +0.015% | 6.7% | 2026-09-04 01:59 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 93.55%EV -4.18%E -4.06%K -139.39%G +0.000% | 14.95I 6.69%NM 6.45%EV +4.24%E +0.284%K +0.304%G +0.013% | 3.8% | 2026-09-03 16:25 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.39%EV -5.11%E -5.01%K -255.60%G +0.000% | 14.40I 6.94%NM 6.61%EV +0.405%E +0.028%K +0.030%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-04 13:15 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 93.09%EV -3.25%E -3.13%K -81.29%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.91%EV -2.38%E -0.170%K -0.183%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-09-03 16:20 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 93.15%EV -4.18%E -4.06%K -139.39%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.85%EV -2.38%E -0.170%K -0.183%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-12 12:29 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 93.27%EV -6.04%E -5.98%K -604.23%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.73%EV -2.38%E -0.170%K -0.183%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-31 21:49 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 93.27%EV -6.04%E -5.98%K -604.23%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.73%EV -2.38%E -0.170%K -0.183%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-31 21:45 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.94%EV -4.18%E -4.06%K -139.39%G +0.000% | 13.56I 7.37%NM 7.06%EV -5.45%E -0.402%K -0.434%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-09-03 21:30 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.94%EV -4.18%E -4.06%K -139.39%G +0.000% | 13.56I 7.37%NM 7.06%EV -5.45%E -0.402%K -0.434%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-09-03 21:30 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -4.18%E -4.06%K -139.39%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV -9.36%E -0.720%K -0.780%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-09 16:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -4.18%E -4.06%K -139.39%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV -9.36%E -0.720%K -0.780%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-02 22:30 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -4.18%E -4.06%K -139.39%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV -9.36%E -0.720%K -0.780%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-02 22:29 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -4.18%E -4.06%K -139.39%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV -9.36%E -0.720%K -0.780%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-01 20:55 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -4.18%E -4.06%K -139.39%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV -9.36%E -0.720%K -0.780%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-01 22:14 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -5.11%E -5.01%K -255.60%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -9.36%E -0.720%K -0.780%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-03 16:15 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -5.11%E -5.01%K -255.60%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -9.36%E -0.720%K -0.780%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-03 16:14 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.41%EV -3.25%E -3.13%K -81.29%G +0.000% | 12.67I 7.89%NM 7.59%EV -11.66%E -0.920%K -0.999%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-09-04 02:10 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.39%EV -4.18%E -4.06%K -139.39%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.61%EV -12.84%E -1.03%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-01 20:54 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.46%EV -5.11%E -5.01%K -255.60%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.54%EV -12.84%E -1.03%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-30 16:47 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.46%EV -5.11%E -5.01%K -255.60%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.54%EV -12.84%E -1.03%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-06-02 09:19 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.46%EV -5.11%E -5.01%K -255.60%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.54%EV -12.84%E -1.03%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-04 11:30 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -3.25%E -3.13%K -81.29%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV -16.33%E -1.36%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-09-04 12:18 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -4.18%E -4.06%K -139.39%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -16.33%E -1.36%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-02 12:38 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.17%EV -5.11%E -5.01%K -255.60%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV -16.33%E -1.36%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-01 21:39 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 91.29%EV -2.32%E -2.21%K -46.42%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.71%EV -23.30%E -2.12%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-03 16:25 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -3.25%E -3.13%K -81.29%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -23.30%E -2.12%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-03 19:30 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -4.18%E -4.06%K -139.39%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV -23.30%E -2.12%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-02 15:45 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.29%EV -3.25%E -3.13%K -81.29%G +0.000% | 10.90I 9.17%NM 8.71%EV -24.00%E -2.20%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-03 16:23 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.29%EV -3.25%E -3.13%K -81.29%G +0.000% | 10.90I 9.17%NM 8.71%EV -24.00%E -2.20%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-03 19:35 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -2.32%E -2.21%K -46.42%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -30.27%E -3.03%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-02 05:55 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.13%EV -3.25%E -3.13%K -81.29%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.87%EV -33.76%E -3.55%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-03 06:59 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 89.73%EV -4.18%E -4.06%K -139.39%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.27%EV -37.25%E -4.14%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-09-04 01:20 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 89.73%EV -4.18%E -4.06%K -139.39%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.27%EV -37.25%E -4.14%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-09-04 01:23 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.05I 95.24%NM 93.84% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 6.16% | 1.5% | 2026-09-04 13:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.05I 95.24%NM 93.84% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 6.16% | 1.5% | 2026-09-04 13:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.05I 95.24%NM 93.84% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 6.16% | 1.5% | 2026-09-04 13:15 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.05I 95.24%NM 93.84% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 6.16% | 1.5% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| Novig◎ | 1.05I 95.24%NM 93.61% | 15.38I 6.50%NM 6.39% | 1.7% | 2026-09-04 14:04 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.05I 95.24%NM 93.46% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.54% | 1.9% | 2026-09-04 01:45 |