Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Notre Dame Fighting Irish v SMU Mustangs

2026-11-22 00:30 UTC — NCAAF

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

88%

12%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Notre Dame Fighting Irish (Local)

Prediction 87.79%1.14fair odd

EV -4.31%

Edge -3.96%

Kelly -47.92%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.09

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

86.12%87.79%88.11%88.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.081.081.081.0992.59%92.38%92.59%91.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

SMU Mustangs (Visit)

Prediction 12.21%8.19fair odd

EV +3.82%

Edge +0.449%

Kelly +0.509%

Growth +0.019%

assuming max odds 8.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

11.27%12.21%11.89%13.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

6.707.557.508.5014.93%13.25%13.33%11.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Notre Dame Fighting Irish (Local): 87.79%; SMU Mustangs (Visit): 12.21%. For SMU Mustangs (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.19. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 8.50, producing a positive expected value of +3.82%.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
DraftKings🎯	1.08I 92.59%NM 88.73%EV -5.19%E -4.81%K -64.89%G +0.000%	8.50I 11.76%NM 11.27%EV +3.82%E +0.449%K +0.509%G +0.019%	4.4%	2026-09-02 20:14
Coolbet🎯	1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -5.19%E -4.81%K -64.89%G +0.000%	8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -2.29%E -0.286%K -0.327%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-09-02 20:20
Unibet (UK)🎯	1.09I 91.74%NM 86.53%EV -4.31%E -3.96%K -47.92%G +0.000%	7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV -14.50%E -2.07%K -2.42%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-09-05 23:05
ReBet🎯	1.08I 92.59%NM 86.12%EV -5.19%E -4.81%K -64.89%G +0.000%	6.70I 14.93%NM 13.88%EV -18.17%E -2.71%K -3.19%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-09-06 06:35

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.