Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Notre Dame Fighting Irish v SMU Mustangs

2026-11-22 00:30 UTC — NCAAF

Head to Head

1 sportsbook (1 in analysis )

87%

13%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Notre Dame Fighting Irish (Local)

Prediction 86.72%1.15fair odd

EV -3.74%

Edge -3.37%

Kelly -33.98%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.11

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

86.72%86.72%86.72%86.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.111.111.111.1190.09%90.09%90.09%90.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

SMU Mustangs (Visit)

Prediction 13.28%7.53fair odd

EV -3.74%

Edge -0.516%

Kelly -0.598%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 7.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

13.28%13.28%13.28%13.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

7.257.257.257.2513.79%13.79%13.79%13.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Notre Dame Fighting Irish (Local): 86.72%; SMU Mustangs (Visit): 13.28%. For SMU Mustangs (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.53. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 7.25, with an expected value of -3.74%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (1 sportsbook)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
DraftKings🎯	1.11I 90.09%NM 86.72%EV -3.74%E -3.37%K -33.98%G +0.000%	7.25I 13.79%NM 13.28%EV -3.74%E -0.516%K -0.598%G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-08-11 15:59

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Discuss this game on odds.forum

No published comments yet.