Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

North Carolina Tar Heels v Louisville Cardinals

2026-11-14 17:00 UTC — NCAAF

Head to Head

2 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

45%

55%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

North Carolina Tar Heels (Local)

Prediction 44.79%2.23fair odd

EV -4.15%

Edge -1.94%

Kelly -3.64%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.14

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

44.74%44.79%44.79%44.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.102.122.122.1447.62%47.17%47.17%46.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Louisville Cardinals (Visit)

Prediction 55.21%1.81fair odd

EV -3.94%

Edge -2.26%

Kelly -5.32%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.74

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

55.15%55.21%55.21%55.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.701.721.721.7458.82%58.14%58.14%57.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: North Carolina Tar Heels (Local): 44.79%; Louisville Cardinals (Visit): 55.21%. For Louisville Cardinals (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.81. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 1.74, with an expected value of -3.94%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (2 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
DraftKings🎯	2.14I 46.73%NM 44.85%EV -4.15%E -1.94%K -3.64%G +0.000%	1.74I 57.47%NM 55.15%EV -3.94%E -2.26%K -5.32%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-11-04 22:50
Unibet (UK)🎯	2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -5.94%E -2.83%K -5.40%G +0.000%	1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -6.14%E -3.61%K -8.78%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-11-04 22:55

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Kalshi◎	2.27I 44.05%NM 38.98%	1.45I 68.97%NM 61.02%	13.0%	2026-11-04 23:20