Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

New Mexico State Aggies v Mercyhurst Lakers

2026-09-06 01:00 UTC — NCAAF

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

93%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

New Mexico State Aggies (Local)

Prediction 93.36%1.07fair odd

EV -3.84%

Edge -3.73%

Kelly -128.07%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.03

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

89.82%93.36%93.95%94.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.021.031.031.0398.04%97.40%97.09%97.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Mercyhurst Lakers (Visit)

Prediction 6.64%15.05fair odd

EV +12.93%

Edge +0.761%

Kelly +0.808%

Growth +0.104%

assuming max odds 17.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

5.66%6.64%6.05%10.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

9.0012.9612.2517.0011.11%7.72%8.16%5.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: New Mexico State Aggies (Local): 93.36%; Mercyhurst Lakers (Visit): 6.64%. For Mercyhurst Lakers (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 15.05. 2 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 17.00, producing a positive expected value of +12.93%.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
FanDuel🎯	1.02I 98.04%NM 94.34%EV -4.78%E -4.68%K -238.79%G +0.000%	17.00I 5.88%NM 5.66%EV +12.93%E +0.761%K +0.808%G +0.104%	3.9%	2026-07-27 05:30
Fanatics🎯	1.03I 97.09%NM 93.95%EV -3.84%E -3.73%K -128.07%G +0.000%	16.00I 6.25%NM 6.05%EV +6.29%E +0.393%K +0.419%G +0.026%	3.3%	2026-07-28 11:29
Hard Rock Bet🎯	1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -3.84%E -3.73%K -128.07%G +0.000%	13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV -13.64%E -1.05%K -1.14%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-07-31 15:05
Unibet (UK)🎯	1.03I 97.09%NM 91.78%EV -3.84%E -3.73%K -128.07%G +0.000%	11.50I 8.70%NM 8.22%EV -23.61%E -2.05%K -2.25%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-07-27 05:30
MyBookie.ag🎯	1.03I 97.09%NM 91.61%EV -3.84%E -3.73%K -128.07%G +0.000%	11.25I 8.89%NM 8.39%EV -25.27%E -2.25%K -2.47%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-07-27 05:33
LeoVegas🎯	1.02I 98.04%NM 89.82%EV -4.78%E -4.68%K -238.79%G +0.000%	9.00I 11.11%NM 10.18%EV -40.21%E -4.47%K -5.03%G +0.000%	9.2%	2026-07-27 05:30

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.