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New Mexico State Aggies v Liberty Flames

2026-11-08 01:00 UTC — NCAAF

Head to Head

11 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

New Mexico State Aggies (Local)

Prediction 16.64%6.01fair odd
EV -3.50%
Edge -0.604%
Kelly -0.729%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.42%16.71%16.67%19.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.605.505.605.8021.74%18.17%17.86%17.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Liberty Flames (Visit)

Prediction 83.36%1.20fair odd
EV -4.13%
Edge -3.59%
Kelly -27.56%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
80.56%83.29%83.33%83.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.111.131.141.1590.09%88.21%87.72%86.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: New Mexico State Aggies (Local): 16.64%; Liberty Flames (Visit): 83.36%. For New Mexico State Aggies (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.01. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 5.80, with an expected value of -3.50%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV -3.50%E -0.604%K -0.729%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 83.57%EV -4.97%E -4.36%K -35.48%G +0.000%5.0%2026-11-01 18:40
Bet Right🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -4.33%E -0.754%K -0.912%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -4.97%E -4.36%K -35.48%G +0.000%5.1%2026-11-01 18:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -4.33%E -0.754%K -0.912%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -4.97%E -4.36%K -35.48%G +0.000%5.1%2026-11-01 18:39
theScore Bet🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 16.42%EV -4.33%E -0.754%K -0.912%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 83.58%EV -5.80%E -5.13%K -44.62%G +0.000%5.9%2026-11-01 18:35
DraftKings🎯5.70I 17.54%NM 16.79%EV -5.16%E -0.906%K -1.10%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 83.21%EV -4.13%E -3.59%K -27.56%G +0.000%4.5%2026-11-01 18:35
Unibet (UK)🎯5.60I 17.86%NM 16.79%EV -6.83%E -1.22%K -1.48%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 83.21%EV -5.80%E -5.13%K -44.62%G +0.000%6.4%2026-11-01 19:15
Caesars🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -8.49%E -1.54%K -1.89%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -4.13%E -3.59%K -27.56%G +0.000%5.1%2026-11-01 19:09
Betr (AU)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -8.49%E -1.54%K -1.89%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -4.97%E -4.36%K -35.48%G +0.000%5.9%2026-11-01 19:20
ReBet🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 17.18%EV -10.16%E -1.88%K -2.31%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 82.82%EV -6.63%E -5.92%K -55.29%G +0.000%7.8%2026-11-01 19:15
LeoVegas🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 17.72%EV -13.48%E -2.59%K -3.21%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 82.28%EV -6.63%E -5.92%K -55.29%G +0.000%8.5%2026-11-01 19:15
picklebet_au🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.44%EV -23.47%E -5.10%K -6.52%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 80.56%EV -7.47%E -6.73%K -67.89%G +0.000%11.8%2026-11-01 19:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Polymarket◎5.26I 19.01%NM 17.94%1.15I 86.96%NM 82.06%6.0%2026-11-01 19:10
ProphetX◎4.85I 20.62%NM 18.76%1.12I 89.29%NM 81.24%9.9%2026-11-01 19:15
Novig◎4.76I 21.01%NM 19.05%1.12I 89.29%NM 80.95%10.3%2026-11-01 19:05