Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

New Mexico Lobos v Mercyhurst Lakers

Kickoff: 2026-09-12 20:00 UTC

Final: New Mexico Lobos 70–7 Mercyhurst Lakers

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

2 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

98%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

New Mexico Lobos (Local)

Prediction 98.08%1.02fair odd

EV -0.942%

Edge -0.933%

Kelly -94.23%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.01

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

93.38%98.08%98.08%98.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.001.001.001.01100.00%99.50%99.50%99.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Mercyhurst Lakers (Visit)

Prediction 1.92%52.00fair odd

EV -1.92%

Edge -0.038%

Kelly -0.038%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 51.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

1.92%1.92%1.92%6.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

14.2532.6332.6351.007.02%3.07%3.07%1.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: New Mexico Lobos (Local): 98.08%; Mercyhurst Lakers (Visit): 1.92%. For New Mexico Lobos (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.02. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.01, with an expected value of -0.942%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (2 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Betr (AU)🎯	1.01I 99.01%NM 93.38%EV -0.942%E -0.933%K -94.23%G +0.000%	14.25I 7.02%NM 6.62%EV -72.60%E -5.09%K -5.48%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-09-07 04:55
Unibet (UK)🎯	1.00I 100.00%NM 98.08%EV -1.92%E -1.92%K +0.000%G +0.000%	51.00I 1.96%NM 1.92%EV -1.92%E -0.038%K -0.038%G +0.000%	2.0%	2026-09-08 02:14

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
BetOpenly◎	1.00I 100.00%NM 99.67%	301.00I 0.33%NM 0.33%	0.3%	2026-09-12 19:40
Kalshi◎	1.00I 100.00%NM 99.01%	100.00I 1.00%NM 0.99%	1.0%	2026-09-09 17:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	1.01I 99.01%NM 97.41%	38.00I 2.63%NM 2.59%	1.6%	2026-09-12 19:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	1.01I 99.01%NM 97.41%	38.00I 2.63%NM 2.59%	1.6%	2026-09-12 19:55