Language:English
NC State Wolfpack v Louisville Cardinals
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
NC State Wolfpack (Local)
Prediction 34.49%2.90fair odd
EV +1.76%
Edge +0.597%
Kelly +0.903%
Growth +0.016%
assuming max odds 2.95
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.18%34.69%34.50%41.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.712.702.9543.48%36.93%37.04%33.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Louisville Cardinals (Visit)
Prediction 65.51%1.53fair odd
EV +4.81%
Edge +3.01%
Kelly +8.01%
Growth +0.385%
assuming max odds 1.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.97%65.31%65.50%67.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.381.461.471.6072.46%68.28%68.03%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: NC State Wolfpack (Local): 34.49%; Louisville Cardinals (Visit): 65.51%. For Louisville Cardinals (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.53. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.81%.
Sportsbook Odds (46 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -20.66%E -8.98%K -15.89%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV +4.81%E +3.01%K +8.01%G +0.385% | 6.0% | 2026-10-03 19:35 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -10.31%E -3.97%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -1.74%E -1.16%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-03 18:55 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.77I 36.10%NM 34.98%EV -4.45%E -1.61%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 65.02%EV -2.40%E -1.61%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-10-03 18:30 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.77I 36.10%NM 34.98%EV -4.45%E -1.61%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 65.02%EV -2.40%E -1.61%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-10-03 18:30 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 35.14%EV -5.14%E -1.87%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.86%EV -2.40%E -1.61%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-10-03 18:35 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.43%EV -10.31%E -3.97%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.57%EV -2.40%E -1.61%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-03 18:55 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.43%EV -10.31%E -3.97%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.57%EV -2.40%E -1.61%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-03 18:55 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.43%EV -10.31%E -3.97%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.57%EV -2.40%E -1.61%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-03 18:55 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.43%EV -10.31%E -3.97%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.57%EV -2.40%E -1.61%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-03 18:54 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.43%EV -10.31%E -3.97%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.57%EV -2.40%E -1.61%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-03 18:55 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.43%EV -10.31%E -3.97%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.57%EV -2.40%E -1.61%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-03 18:55 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.58%EV -3.41%E -1.22%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.42%EV -3.05%E -2.06%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-10-03 19:25 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.58%EV -3.41%E -1.22%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.42%EV -3.05%E -2.06%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-10-03 19:30 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.76I 36.23%NM 34.91%EV -4.79%E -1.74%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.09%EV -3.05%E -2.06%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-10-03 19:01 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -5.14%E -1.87%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -3.05%E -2.06%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-10-03 19:04 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -6.86%E -2.54%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -3.05%E -2.06%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-10-03 19:35 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -8.59%E -3.24%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -3.05%E -2.06%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-03 19:25 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -8.59%E -3.24%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -3.05%E -2.06%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-03 19:34 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -8.59%E -3.24%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -3.05%E -2.06%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-03 19:35 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -8.59%E -3.24%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -3.05%E -2.06%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-03 19:34 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.01%EV -9.28%E -3.53%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.99%EV -3.05%E -2.06%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-03 19:35 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -10.31%E -3.97%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -3.05%E -2.06%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-03 19:35 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.43%EV -3.41%E -1.22%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 65.57%EV -3.71%E -2.52%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-10-03 19:35 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.76I 36.23%NM 34.75%EV -4.79%E -1.74%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 65.25%EV -3.71%E -2.52%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-10-03 18:50 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -10.31%E -3.97%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -3.71%E -2.52%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-10-03 19:35 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.10%EV -6.86%E -2.54%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 64.90%EV -4.36%E -2.99%K -9.48%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-03 18:30 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -3.41%E -1.22%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -5.02%E -3.46%K -11.15%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-03 19:35 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -3.41%E -1.22%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -5.02%E -3.46%K -11.15%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-03 19:35 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.78I 35.97%NM 34.28%EV -4.10%E -1.48%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.72%EV -5.02%E -3.46%K -11.15%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-03 19:04 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -5.14%E -1.87%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -5.02%E -3.46%K -11.15%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-03 19:04 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -5.14%E -1.87%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -5.02%E -3.46%K -11.15%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-03 18:50 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -6.86%E -2.54%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -5.02%E -3.46%K -11.15%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-03 19:10 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -6.86%E -2.54%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -5.02%E -3.46%K -11.15%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-03 19:30 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.37%EV -8.59%E -3.24%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.63%EV -5.02%E -3.46%K -11.15%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-03 19:34 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -10.31%E -3.97%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -5.02%E -3.46%K -11.15%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-03 19:25 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -1.69%E -0.593%K -0.913%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -5.67%E -3.94%K -12.89%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-10-03 18:53 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -3.41%E -1.22%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.67%E -3.94%K -12.89%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-03 19:10 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.14%E -1.87%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.67%E -3.94%K -12.89%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-03 19:10 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -6.86%E -2.54%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -5.67%E -3.94%K -12.89%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-10-03 19:27 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -9.62%E -3.67%K -5.94%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -5.67%E -3.94%K -12.89%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-10-03 19:10 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -9.62%E -3.67%K -5.94%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -5.67%E -3.94%K -12.89%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-10-03 18:55 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.68I 37.31%NM 34.79%EV -7.55%E -2.82%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.21%EV -6.33%E -4.43%K -14.72%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-10-03 19:20 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.49%EV +1.76%E +0.597%K +0.903%G +0.016% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.51%EV -6.98%E -4.92%K -16.63%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-10-03 19:35 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV +1.76%E +0.597%K +0.903%G +0.016% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -8.29%E -5.92%K -20.73%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-03 19:35 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.91I 34.36%NM 32.33%EV +0.380%E +0.131%K +0.199%G +0.001% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 67.67%EV -8.95%E -6.44%K -22.94%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-03 19:35 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV +0.035%E +0.012%K +0.019%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -9.60%E -6.96%K -25.27%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-03 19:35 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 2.96I 33.78%NM 33.78% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 66.22% | 0.0% | 2026-10-03 19:29 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.63% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 66.37% | 1.1% | 2026-10-03 19:30 |
| BetOpenly◎ | 3.02I 33.11%NM 32.74% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 67.26% | 1.1% | 2026-10-03 19:29 |
| Novig◎ | 2.99I 33.44%NM 32.96% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 67.04% | 1.5% | 2026-10-03 19:35 |
| ProphetX◎ | 2.88I 34.72%NM 34.10% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 65.90% | 1.8% | 2026-10-03 19:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59% | 4.6% | 2026-10-03 19:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.68I 37.31%NM 35.58% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.42% | 4.9% | 2026-10-03 19:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.68I 37.31%NM 35.58% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.42% | 4.9% | 2026-10-03 19:35 |