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NC State Wolfpack v Appalachian State Mountaineers
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
NC State Wolfpack (Local)
Prediction 80.58%1.24fair odd
EV -0.085%
Edge -0.069%
Kelly -0.355%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.24
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
75.78%80.24%80.68%82.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.141.181.181.2487.72%84.66%84.75%80.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Appalachian State Mountaineers (Visit)
Prediction 19.42%5.15fair odd
EV +6.83%
Edge +1.24%
Kelly +1.52%
Growth +0.104%
assuming max odds 5.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.17%19.76%19.32%24.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.884.864.905.5025.77%20.57%20.41%18.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: NC State Wolfpack (Local): 80.58%; Appalachian State Mountaineers (Visit): 19.42%. For Appalachian State Mountaineers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.15. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.83%.
Sportsbook Odds (41 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -8.14%E -7.14%K -58.16%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV +6.83%E +1.24%K +1.52%G +0.104% | 5.9% | 2026-09-26 22:55 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.63%EV -5.73%E -4.89%K -33.68%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.37%EV +1.00%E +0.193%K +0.239%G +0.002% | 4.7% | 2026-09-26 22:55 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 81.21%EV -4.92%E -4.17%K -27.33%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.79%EV -0.940%E -0.184%K -0.229%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-09-26 18:40 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -5.73%E -4.89%K -33.68%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -0.940%E -0.184%K -0.229%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-26 18:40 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -5.73%E -4.89%K -33.68%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -0.940%E -0.184%K -0.229%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-26 18:40 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -5.73%E -4.89%K -33.68%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -0.940%E -0.184%K -0.229%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-26 18:40 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -5.73%E -4.89%K -33.68%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -0.940%E -0.184%K -0.229%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-26 18:40 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -5.73%E -4.89%K -33.68%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -0.940%E -0.184%K -0.229%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-26 18:40 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -5.73%E -4.89%K -33.68%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -0.940%E -0.184%K -0.229%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-26 18:40 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -5.73%E -4.89%K -33.68%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -0.940%E -0.184%K -0.229%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-26 18:40 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.47%EV -6.53%E -5.63%K -40.82%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.53%EV -0.940%E -0.184%K -0.229%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-26 18:40 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.47%EV -6.53%E -5.63%K -40.82%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.53%EV -0.940%E -0.184%K -0.229%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-26 18:40 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.93%EV -4.11%E -3.46%K -21.65%G +0.000% | 5.05I 19.80%NM 19.07%EV -1.91%E -0.378%K -0.472%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-09-26 18:44 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.90%EV -4.11%E -3.46%K -21.65%G +0.000% | 5.04I 19.84%NM 19.10%EV -2.11%E -0.418%K -0.521%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-09-26 23:25 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.78%EV -4.11%E -3.46%K -21.65%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.22%EV -2.88%E -0.576%K -0.720%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-09-26 18:40 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.78%EV -4.11%E -3.46%K -21.65%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.22%EV -2.88%E -0.576%K -0.720%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-09-26 18:40 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.78%EV -4.11%E -3.46%K -21.65%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.22%EV -2.88%E -0.576%K -0.720%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-09-26 18:40 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.78%EV -4.11%E -3.46%K -21.65%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.22%EV -2.88%E -0.576%K -0.720%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-09-26 18:40 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.92%E -4.17%K -27.33%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -2.88%E -0.576%K -0.720%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-26 18:40 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.62%EV -4.11%E -3.46%K -21.65%G +0.000% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 19.38%EV -3.85%E -0.778%K -0.975%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-26 18:45 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -4.92%E -4.17%K -27.33%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -4.82%E -0.985%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-26 18:40 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -4.92%E -4.17%K -27.33%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -4.82%E -0.985%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-26 18:39 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -4.92%E -4.17%K -27.33%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -4.82%E -0.985%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-26 18:39 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -4.92%E -4.17%K -27.33%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -4.82%E -0.985%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-26 18:39 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -4.92%E -4.17%K -27.33%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -4.82%E -0.985%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-26 23:10 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.63%EV -5.73%E -4.89%K -33.68%G +0.000% | 4.87I 20.53%NM 19.37%EV -5.41%E -1.11%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-26 23:25 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.56%EV -5.73%E -4.89%K -33.68%G +0.000% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.44%EV -5.80%E -1.19%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-26 22:55 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.13%EV -4.11%E -3.46%K -21.65%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.87%EV -6.77%E -1.41%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-26 18:40 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.83%EV -3.31%E -2.76%K -16.54%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.17%EV -7.74%E -1.63%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-09-26 18:40 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.97%EV -4.11%E -3.46%K -21.65%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -7.74%E -1.63%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-26 23:25 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.97%EV -4.11%E -3.46%K -21.65%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -7.74%E -1.63%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-26 23:25 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -4.92%E -4.17%K -27.33%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -7.74%E -1.63%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-26 20:50 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.07%EV -5.73%E -4.89%K -33.68%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.93%EV -8.71%E -1.85%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-26 23:00 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.49%EV -3.31%E -2.76%K -16.54%G +0.000% | 4.65I 21.51%NM 20.51%EV -9.68%E -2.08%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-26 14:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.90%EV -5.73%E -4.89%K -33.68%G +0.000% | 4.65I 21.51%NM 20.10%EV -9.68%E -2.08%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-26 14:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.00%EV -7.34%E -6.38%K -48.91%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.00%EV -10.65%E -2.32%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-26 23:25 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -3.31%E -2.76%K -16.54%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -12.59%E -2.80%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-26 18:35 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -3.31%E -2.76%K -16.54%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -14.54%E -3.30%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-26 18:40 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.36%EV -3.31%E -2.76%K -16.54%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -20.36%E -4.97%K -6.57%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-26 23:23 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.36%EV -3.31%E -2.76%K -16.54%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -20.36%E -4.97%K -6.57%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-26 23:20 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.78%EV -0.085%E -0.069%K -0.355%G +0.000% | 3.88I 25.77%NM 24.22%EV -24.64%E -6.35%K -8.55%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-26 22:55 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.22I 81.97%NM 81.00% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 19.00% | 1.2% | 2026-09-26 23:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.22I 81.97%NM 81.00% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 19.00% | 1.2% | 2026-09-26 23:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.22I 81.97%NM 81.00% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 19.00% | 1.2% | 2026-09-26 23:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.22I 81.97%NM 81.00% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 19.00% | 1.2% | 2026-09-26 23:15 |
| Novig◎ | 1.22I 81.97%NM 80.79% | 5.13I 19.49%NM 19.21% | 1.5% | 2026-09-26 23:25 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.22I 81.97%NM 80.54% | 5.05I 19.80%NM 19.46% | 1.8% | 2026-09-26 23:25 |