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Missouri State Bears v Marshall Thundering Herd
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Missouri State Bears (Local)
Prediction 37.87%2.64fair odd
EV -0.035%
Edge -0.013%
Kelly -0.021%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.64
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.59%37.89%37.97%40.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.512.502.6443.48%39.81%40.00%37.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Marshall Thundering Herd (Visit)
Prediction 62.13%1.61fair odd
EV -3.07%
Edge -1.97%
Kelly -5.48%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.56
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.74%62.11%62.03%63.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.531.531.5666.67%65.29%65.36%64.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Missouri State Bears (Local): 37.87%; Marshall Thundering Herd (Visit): 62.13%. For Missouri State Bears (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.641. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.640, with an expected value of -0.035%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (41 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.64I 37.88%NM 36.69%EV -0.035%E -0.013%K -0.021%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 63.31%EV -4.93%E -3.23%K -9.31%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-09-19 14:01 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.64I 37.88%NM 36.69%EV -0.035%E -0.013%K -0.021%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 63.31%EV -4.93%E -3.23%K -9.31%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-09-19 14:01 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.78%EV -0.413%E -0.157%K -0.254%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 63.22%EV -4.93%E -3.23%K -9.31%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-09-19 14:01 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 37.02%EV -0.792%E -0.302%K -0.489%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.98%EV -4.31%E -2.80%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-09-19 17:59 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.50%EV -1.55%E -0.596%K -0.968%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 62.50%EV -3.07%E -1.97%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-09-16 21:35 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.20%EV -1.55%E -0.596%K -0.968%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.80%EV -4.31%E -2.80%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-09-18 13:50 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.20%EV -1.55%E -0.596%K -0.968%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.80%EV -4.31%E -2.80%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-09-17 14:04 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -1.55%E -0.596%K -0.968%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -4.93%E -3.23%K -9.31%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-09-17 21:05 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.89%EV -1.55%E -0.596%K -0.968%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 63.11%EV -5.56%E -3.66%K -10.68%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-17 19:39 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -1.55%E -0.596%K -0.968%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -6.18%E -4.09%K -12.11%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-19 15:48 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -1.55%E -0.596%K -0.968%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.80%E -4.53%K -13.60%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-17 22:34 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -3.44%E -1.35%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -4.31%E -2.80%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-19 22:29 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -3.44%E -1.35%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -4.93%E -3.23%K -9.31%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-19 19:59 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.53I 39.53%NM 37.99%EV -4.20%E -1.66%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 62.01%EV -3.69%E -2.38%K -6.71%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-09-19 14:01 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.52I 39.68%NM 37.78%EV -4.58%E -1.82%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.22%EV -4.93%E -3.23%K -9.31%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-19 22:24 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -5.34%E -2.13%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -4.31%E -2.80%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-19 14:01 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -5.34%E -2.13%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -4.31%E -2.80%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-19 14:01 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -5.34%E -2.13%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -4.31%E -2.80%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-19 14:01 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -5.34%E -2.13%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -4.31%E -2.80%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-19 14:01 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -5.34%E -2.13%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -4.31%E -2.80%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-19 14:01 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -5.34%E -2.13%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -4.31%E -2.80%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-19 14:01 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.34%E -2.13%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.93%E -3.23%K -9.31%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-19 22:29 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.34%E -2.13%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.93%E -3.23%K -9.31%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-17 19:40 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.34%E -2.13%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.93%E -3.23%K -9.31%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-19 17:52 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.34%E -2.13%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.93%E -3.23%K -9.31%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-19 22:24 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -5.34%E -2.13%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -5.56%E -3.66%K -10.68%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-19 22:24 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -5.34%E -2.13%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -5.56%E -3.66%K -10.68%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-16 08:10 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV -5.34%E -2.13%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -6.18%E -4.09%K -12.11%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-19 21:49 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -5.34%E -2.13%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.80%E -4.53%K -13.60%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-19 20:25 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.15%EV -6.09%E -2.46%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.85%EV -4.93%E -3.23%K -9.31%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-19 14:01 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.15%EV -6.09%E -2.46%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.85%EV -4.93%E -3.23%K -9.31%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-19 14:01 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.46I 40.65%NM 38.81%EV -6.85%E -2.78%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.19%EV -3.07%E -1.97%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-19 21:45 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -7.23%E -2.95%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -4.93%E -3.23%K -9.31%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-19 21:49 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -7.23%E -2.95%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -4.93%E -3.23%K -9.31%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-19 21:49 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.44I 40.98%NM 38.54%EV -7.61%E -3.12%K -5.28%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.46%EV -4.93%E -3.23%K -9.31%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-19 14:00 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.44I 40.98%NM 38.23%EV -7.61%E -3.12%K -5.28%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 61.77%EV -6.18%E -4.09%K -12.11%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-19 22:29 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -9.12%E -3.80%K -6.52%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -3.07%E -1.97%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-19 22:29 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -9.12%E -3.80%K -6.52%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -3.69%E -2.38%K -6.71%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-19 22:20 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -9.12%E -3.80%K -6.52%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -4.93%E -3.23%K -9.31%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-19 21:44 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -9.12%E -3.80%K -6.52%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -6.80%E -4.53%K -13.60%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-09-19 22:29 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -12.91%E -5.61%K -9.93%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -3.69%E -2.38%K -6.71%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-19 22:27 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ProphetX◎ | 2.66I 37.59%NM 37.26% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 62.74% | 0.9% | 2026-09-19 21:29 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.66I 37.59%NM 37.12% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 62.88% | 1.3% | 2026-09-19 21:34 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.66I 37.59%NM 37.12% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 62.88% | 1.3% | 2026-09-19 21:34 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.66I 37.59%NM 37.12% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 62.88% | 1.3% | 2026-09-19 21:34 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.66I 37.59%NM 37.12% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 62.88% | 1.3% | 2026-09-19 21:34 |
| BetOpenly◎ | 2.62I 38.17%NM 37.02% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.98% | 3.1% | 2026-09-19 22:14 |