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Missouri State Bears v Lindenwood Lions
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Missouri State Bears (Local)
Prediction 85.84%1.16fair odd
EV -3.86%
Edge -3.44%
Kelly -32.15%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.12
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
83.08%85.86%85.79%88.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.071.101.111.1293.46%90.80%90.09%89.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Lindenwood Lions (Visit)
Prediction 14.16%7.06fair odd
EV +13.27%
Edge +1.66%
Kelly +1.90%
Growth +0.252%
assuming max odds 8.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.80%14.14%14.21%16.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.506.966.758.0018.18%14.37%14.81%12.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Missouri State Bears (Local): 85.84%; Lindenwood Lions (Visit): 14.16%. For Lindenwood Lions (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.06. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +13.27%.
Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -7.29%E -6.75%K -91.14%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV +13.27%E +1.66%K +1.90%G +0.252% | 5.1% | 2026-09-12 19:59 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -7.29%E -6.75%K -91.14%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV +13.27%E +1.66%K +1.90%G +0.252% | 5.1% | 2026-09-12 20:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -7.29%E -6.75%K -91.14%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV +13.27%E +1.66%K +1.90%G +0.252% | 5.1% | 2026-09-12 20:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -7.29%E -6.75%K -91.14%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV +13.27%E +1.66%K +1.90%G +0.252% | 5.1% | 2026-09-12 20:00 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -7.29%E -6.75%K -91.14%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV +13.27%E +1.66%K +1.90%G +0.252% | 5.1% | 2026-09-12 20:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -7.29%E -6.75%K -91.14%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV +13.27%E +1.66%K +1.90%G +0.252% | 5.1% | 2026-09-12 20:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%EV -8.15%E -7.62%K -116.42%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%EV +13.27%E +1.66%K +1.90%G +0.252% | 6.0% | 2026-09-12 20:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%EV -8.15%E -7.62%K -116.42%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%EV +13.27%E +1.66%K +1.90%G +0.252% | 6.0% | 2026-09-12 20:00 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 87.06%EV -5.57%E -5.07%K -55.74%G +0.000% | 7.40I 13.51%NM 12.94%EV +4.77%E +0.645%K +0.746%G +0.036% | 4.4% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.50%EV -5.57%E -5.07%K -55.74%G +0.000% | 7.05I 14.18%NM 13.50%EV -0.182%E -0.026%K -0.030%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-12 22:35 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 86.21%EV -3.86%E -3.44%K -32.15%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.79%EV -0.890%E -0.127%K -0.148%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-09-12 22:04 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 86.31%EV -4.72%E -4.25%K -42.87%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.69%EV -0.890%E -0.127%K -0.148%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-09-12 22:35 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.57%E -5.07%K -55.74%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -0.890%E -0.127%K -0.148%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-12 14:19 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.77%EV -3.86%E -3.44%K -32.15%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.23%EV -4.43%E -0.656%K -0.770%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-12 21:55 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.88%EV -4.72%E -4.25%K -42.87%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.12%EV -4.43%E -0.656%K -0.770%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-12 22:05 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 86.10%EV -6.43%E -5.90%K -71.48%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.90%EV -4.43%E -0.656%K -0.770%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-12 22:05 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.79%EV -5.57%E -5.07%K -55.74%G +0.000% | 6.64I 15.06%NM 14.21%EV -5.99%E -0.902%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-12 22:55 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%EV -3.86%E -3.44%K -32.15%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV -7.97%E -1.23%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%EV -3.86%E -3.44%K -32.15%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV -7.97%E -1.23%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%EV -3.86%E -3.44%K -32.15%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV -7.97%E -1.23%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -4.72%E -4.25%K -42.87%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -7.97%E -1.23%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-12 14:19 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -4.72%E -4.25%K -42.87%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -7.97%E -1.23%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-12 22:05 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -4.72%E -4.25%K -42.87%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -7.97%E -1.23%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-12 22:05 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -5.57%E -5.07%K -55.74%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -7.97%E -1.23%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-12 22:40 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.26%EV -4.72%E -4.25%K -42.87%G +0.000% | 6.42I 15.58%NM 14.74%EV -9.10%E -1.42%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-12 22:45 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.91%EV -3.86%E -3.44%K -32.15%G +0.000% | 6.30I 15.87%NM 15.09%EV -10.80%E -1.71%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-12 19:55 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.82%EV -4.72%E -4.25%K -42.87%G +0.000% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.18%EV -12.22%E -1.97%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-12 15:44 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -3.86%E -3.44%K -32.15%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -22.13%E -4.02%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-12 22:49 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -3.86%E -3.44%K -32.15%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -22.13%E -4.02%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-12 22:48 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ProphetX◎ | 1.13I 88.50%NM 87.06% | 7.60I 13.16%NM 12.94% | 1.7% | 2026-09-12 20:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.12I 89.29%NM 87.72% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 12.28% | 1.8% | 2026-09-12 20:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.12I 89.29%NM 87.72% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 12.28% | 1.8% | 2026-09-12 20:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.12I 89.29%NM 87.72% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 12.28% | 1.8% | 2026-09-12 21:00 |