The School of Odds

Mississippi State Bulldogs v UL Monroe Warhawks

2026-09-05 23:30 UTC — NCAAF

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Head to Head

11 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Mississippi State Bulldogs (Local)

Prediction 94.87%1.05fair odd
EV -3.24%
Edge -3.17%
Kelly -161.80%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
90.83%94.89%94.82%96.26%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.001.011.011.02100%99%99%98%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

UL Monroe Warhawks (Visit)

Prediction 5.13%19.48fair odd
EV +33.47%
Edge +1.29%
Kelly +1.34%
Growth +0.448%

assuming max odds 26.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
3.74%5.11%5.18%9.17%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
10.0017.3216.0026.0010%6%6%4%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
DraftKings1.01I 99.01%NM 96.26%EV -4.18%E -4.14%K -418.47%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.74%EV +33.47%E +1.29%K +1.34%G +0.448%2.9%2026-07-23 20:50
FanDuel1.01I 99.01%NM 96.12%EV -4.18%E -4.14%K -418.47%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.88%EV +28.33%E +1.13%K +1.18%G +0.335%3.0%2026-06-03 04:00
theScore Bet1.01I 99.01%NM 95.41%EV -4.18%E -4.14%K -418.47%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.59%EV +7.80%E +0.371%K +0.390%G +0.030%3.8%2026-07-14 20:04
Caesars1.01I 99.01%NM 94.82%EV -4.18%E -4.14%K -418.47%G +0.000%18.50I 5.41%NM 5.18%EV -5.03%E -0.272%K -0.288%G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-23 20:45
Coolbet1.01I 99.01%NM 94.23%EV -4.18%E -4.14%K -418.47%G +0.000%16.50I 6.06%NM 5.77%EV -15.30%E -0.927%K -0.987%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-24 02:10
Hard Rock Bet1.02I 98.04%NM 94.01%EV -3.24%E -3.17%K -161.80%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.99%EV -17.87%E -1.12%K -1.19%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-15 07:54
Unibet (UK)1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -3.24%E -3.17%K -161.80%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV -23.00%E -1.53%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.7%2026-06-30 19:49
PointsBet (AU)1.00I 100.00%NM 93.75%EV -5.13%E -5.13%K +0.000%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.25%EV -23.00%E -1.53%K -1.64%G +0.000%6.7%2026-06-03 10:29
Betr (AU)1.01I 99.01%NM 93.38%EV -4.18%E -4.14%K -418.47%G +0.000%14.25I 7.02%NM 6.62%EV -26.85%E -1.88%K -2.03%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-08 10:40
MyBookie.ag1.01I 99.01%NM 92.92%EV -4.18%E -4.14%K -418.47%G +0.000%13.25I 7.55%NM 7.08%EV -31.98%E -2.41%K -2.61%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-15 08:00
LeoVegas1.01I 99.01%NM 90.83%EV -4.18%E -4.14%K -418.47%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.17%EV -48.67%E -4.87%K -5.41%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-02 10:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.