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Mississippi State Bulldogs v Alabama Crimson Tide
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Mississippi State Bulldogs (Local)
Prediction 34.70%2.88fair odd
EV +12.77%
Edge +3.93%
Kelly +5.68%
Growth +0.725%
assuming max odds 3.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.35%34.48%34.60%37.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.752.753.2540.00%36.37%36.36%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Alabama Crimson Tide (Visit)
Prediction 65.30%1.53fair odd
EV -2.05%
Edge -1.37%
Kelly -4.10%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.50%65.52%65.40%70.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.351.451.451.5074.07%68.96%68.97%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Mississippi State Bulldogs (Local): 34.70%; Alabama Crimson Tide (Visit): 65.30%. For Mississippi State Bulldogs (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.88. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +12.77%.
Sportsbook Odds (48 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV +12.77%E +3.93%K +5.68%G +0.725% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -11.84%E -8.77%K -33.84%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-10-03 16:05 |
| BetUS🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.28%EV +4.10%E +1.37%K +2.05%G +0.084% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 67.72%EV -6.62%E -4.63%K -15.40%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-10-03 16:02 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.65%EV +2.36%E +0.801%K +1.21%G +0.029% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 67.35%EV -6.62%E -4.63%K -15.40%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-10-03 16:05 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.49%EV -0.065%E -0.023%K -0.035%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.51%EV -5.31%E -3.67%K -11.81%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-10-03 15:45 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.49%EV -0.065%E -0.023%K -0.035%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.51%EV -5.31%E -3.67%K -11.81%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-10-03 15:44 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -1.11%E -0.388%K -0.598%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -5.97%E -4.14%K -13.56%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-10-03 15:58 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -1.11%E -0.388%K -0.598%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -5.97%E -4.14%K -13.56%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-10-03 16:03 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -1.11%E -0.388%K -0.598%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -6.62%E -4.63%K -15.40%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-03 16:05 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -1.11%E -0.388%K -0.598%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -6.62%E -4.63%K -15.40%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-03 16:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -1.11%E -0.388%K -0.598%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -6.62%E -4.63%K -15.40%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-03 16:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -1.11%E -0.388%K -0.598%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -6.62%E -4.63%K -15.40%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-03 16:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -1.11%E -0.388%K -0.598%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -6.62%E -4.63%K -15.40%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-03 15:59 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.84I 35.21%NM 33.64%EV -1.45%E -0.512%K -0.790%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.36%EV -5.97%E -4.14%K -13.56%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-03 16:05 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.83I 35.34%NM 33.88%EV -1.80%E -0.636%K -0.984%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.12%EV -5.31%E -3.67%K -11.81%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-10-03 15:45 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.81I 35.59%NM 34.19%EV -2.49%E -0.888%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 65.81%EV -4.66%E -3.19%K -10.13%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-10-02 15:25 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -2.84%E -1.01%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -5.31%E -3.67%K -11.81%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-03 16:04 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -2.84%E -1.01%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -5.31%E -3.67%K -11.81%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-01 21:59 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -2.84%E -1.01%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -6.62%E -4.63%K -15.40%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-03 13:45 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -2.84%E -1.01%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -6.62%E -4.63%K -15.40%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-03 13:45 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -2.84%E -1.01%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -7.27%E -5.12%K -17.32%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-03 16:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -2.84%E -1.01%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -7.27%E -5.12%K -17.32%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-03 16:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.78I 35.97%NM 33.65%EV -3.54%E -1.27%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.35%EV -7.93%E -5.62%K -19.33%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-03 16:05 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.76I 36.23%NM 35.06%EV -4.23%E -1.53%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.94%EV -2.70%E -1.81%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-10-03 15:25 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -4.58%E -1.66%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -3.36%E -2.27%K -6.99%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-10-03 15:35 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -4.58%E -1.66%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -5.31%E -3.67%K -11.81%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-03 16:00 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -4.58%E -1.66%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -5.31%E -3.67%K -11.81%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-03 15:59 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -4.58%E -1.66%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -6.62%E -4.63%K -15.40%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-03 16:05 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.72I 36.76%NM 35.39%EV -5.62%E -2.07%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.61%EV -2.70%E -1.81%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-10-03 15:49 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.56%EV -6.31%E -2.34%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.44%EV -2.70%E -1.81%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-10-03 14:09 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.10%EV -6.31%E -2.34%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 64.90%EV -4.66%E -3.19%K -10.13%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-03 16:05 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.10%EV -6.31%E -2.34%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 64.90%EV -4.66%E -3.19%K -10.13%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-03 16:05 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.67I 37.45%NM 35.66%EV -7.35%E -2.75%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.34%EV -3.36%E -2.27%K -6.99%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-03 15:59 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -8.05%E -3.04%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -3.36%E -2.27%K -6.99%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-03 16:00 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -8.05%E -3.04%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -4.01%E -2.73%K -8.53%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-03 16:00 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -8.05%E -3.04%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -4.01%E -2.73%K -8.53%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-03 15:30 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.37%EV -8.05%E -3.04%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.63%EV -5.31%E -3.67%K -11.81%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-03 16:03 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.05%EV -8.05%E -3.04%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 64.95%EV -6.62%E -4.63%K -15.40%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-10-03 16:05 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -9.09%E -3.47%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -5.97%E -4.14%K -13.56%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-10-03 16:05 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -9.09%E -3.47%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -5.97%E -4.14%K -13.56%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-10-03 16:05 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -9.09%E -3.47%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -5.97%E -4.14%K -13.56%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-10-02 01:40 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.43%EV -9.78%E -3.76%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.57%EV -2.70%E -1.81%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-03 16:05 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -9.78%E -3.76%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -3.36%E -2.27%K -6.99%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-03 14:10 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -9.78%E -3.76%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -4.01%E -2.73%K -8.53%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-10-03 16:05 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -9.78%E -3.76%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -5.31%E -3.67%K -11.81%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-03 15:59 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -9.78%E -3.76%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -5.31%E -3.67%K -11.81%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-03 16:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.59I 38.61%NM 36.36%EV -10.13%E -3.91%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.64%EV -3.36%E -2.27%K -6.99%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-03 16:00 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.54I 39.37%NM 36.97%EV -11.86%E -4.67%K -7.70%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.03%EV -2.70%E -1.81%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-10-03 12:19 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -13.25%E -5.30%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -2.05%E -1.37%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-03 15:50 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 3.04I 32.89%NM 33.04% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 66.96% | -0.4% | 2026-10-03 15:59 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.86I 34.97%NM 34.70% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 65.30% | 0.8% | 2026-10-03 14:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.92I 34.25%NM 33.94% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 66.06% | 0.9% | 2026-10-03 16:05 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.92I 34.25%NM 33.94% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 66.06% | 0.9% | 2026-10-03 15:59 |
| ProphetX◎ | 2.88I 34.72%NM 34.40% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 65.60% | 0.9% | 2026-10-03 16:05 |
| Novig◎ | 2.90I 34.48%NM 34.09% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 65.91% | 1.1% | 2026-10-03 16:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.90I 34.48%NM 34.09% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 65.91% | 1.1% | 2026-10-03 16:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.90I 34.48%NM 34.09% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 65.91% | 1.1% | 2026-10-03 16:05 |