Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Mississippi State Bulldogs v Alabama Crimson Tide

2026-10-03 16:00 UTC — NCAAF

Head to Head

1 sportsbook (1 in analysis )

42%

58%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Mississippi State Bulldogs (Local)

Prediction 41.77%2.39fair odd

EV -3.92%

Edge -1.71%

Kelly -3.02%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

41.77%41.77%41.77%41.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.302.302.302.3043.48%43.48%43.48%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Alabama Crimson Tide (Visit)

Prediction 58.23%1.72fair odd

EV -3.92%

Edge -2.38%

Kelly -6.04%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

58.23%58.23%58.23%58.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.651.651.651.6560.61%60.61%60.61%60.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Mississippi State Bulldogs (Local): 41.77%; Alabama Crimson Tide (Visit): 58.23%. For Alabama Crimson Tide (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.72. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 1.65, with an expected value of -3.92%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (1 sportsbook)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
DraftKings🎯	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -3.92%E -1.71%K -3.02%G +0.000%	1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -3.92%E -2.38%K -6.04%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-09-23 22:24

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Kalshi◎	2.56I 39.06%NM 37.25%	1.52I 65.79%NM 62.75%	4.9%	2026-09-24 01:45