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Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders v Murray State Racers

Kickoff: 2026-09-05 23:44 UTC

Final: Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 38–14 Murray State Racers

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

20 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (Local)

Prediction 90.98%1.10fair odd
EV -3.57%
Edge -3.36%
Kelly -59.43%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.06

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
89.55%91.01%91.21%92.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.021.041.041.0698.04%95.88%96.15%94.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Murray State Racers (Visit)

Prediction 9.02%11.08fair odd
EV +17.32%
Edge +1.33%
Kelly +1.44%
Growth +0.250%

assuming max odds 13.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.34%8.99%8.79%10.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
9.0010.9111.2813.0011.11%9.17%8.87%7.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (Local): 90.98%; Murray State Racers (Visit): 9.02%. For Murray State Racers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 11.08. 10 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 13.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +17.32%.

Sportsbook Odds (20 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
FanDuel🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -6.30%E -6.11%K -209.84%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV +17.32%E +1.33%K +1.44%G +0.250%4.8%2026-09-05 23:05
BetMGM🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 91.95%EV -4.48%E -4.26%K -89.51%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 8.05%EV +8.29%E +0.691%K +0.754%G +0.063%3.6%2026-09-05 23:05
betPARX🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -5.39%E -5.18%K -134.63%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV +8.29%E +0.691%K +0.754%G +0.063%4.5%2026-09-02 14:04
ATG (SE)🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -5.39%E -5.18%K -134.63%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV +8.29%E +0.691%K +0.754%G +0.063%4.5%2026-09-02 14:04
Svenska Spel🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -5.39%E -5.18%K -134.63%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV +8.29%E +0.691%K +0.754%G +0.063%4.5%2026-09-02 14:04
Bally Bet🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -5.39%E -5.18%K -134.63%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV +8.29%E +0.691%K +0.754%G +0.063%4.5%2026-09-02 14:10
theScore Bet🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -5.39%E -5.18%K -134.63%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV +8.29%E +0.691%K +0.754%G +0.063%4.5%2026-09-05 23:05
Unibet (SE)🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 91.71%EV -5.39%E -5.18%K -134.63%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.29%EV +3.78%E +0.329%K +0.360%G +0.014%4.8%2026-09-02 14:04
Unibet🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 91.78%EV -6.30%E -6.11%K -209.84%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.22%EV +3.78%E +0.329%K +0.360%G +0.014%5.8%2026-09-02 14:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 91.78%EV -6.30%E -6.11%K -209.84%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.22%EV +3.78%E +0.329%K +0.360%G +0.014%5.8%2026-09-02 14:04
GTbets🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 91.25%EV -3.57%E -3.36%K -59.43%G +0.000%11.05I 9.05%NM 8.75%EV -0.280%E -0.025%K -0.028%G +0.000%3.4%2026-09-03 15:20
DraftKings🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 91.21%EV -3.57%E -3.36%K -59.43%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.79%EV -0.732%E -0.067%K -0.073%G +0.000%3.4%2026-09-03 14:39
Fliff🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 91.26%EV -7.20%E -7.06%K -360.24%G +0.000%10.65I 9.39%NM 8.74%EV -3.89%E -0.365%K -0.403%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-05 23:05
SportsBet🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 90.66%EV -6.30%E -6.11%K -209.84%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.34%EV -9.76%E -0.976%K -1.08%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-05 23:05
MyBookie.ag🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 89.96%EV -3.57%E -3.36%K -59.43%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 10.04%EV -14.27%E -1.50%K -1.68%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-05 23:04
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 89.96%EV -3.57%E -3.36%K -59.43%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 10.04%EV -14.27%E -1.50%K -1.68%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-05 23:20
Betsson🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 90.05%EV -4.48%E -4.26%K -89.51%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -14.27%E -1.50%K -1.68%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-05 23:15
NordicBet🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 90.05%EV -4.48%E -4.26%K -89.51%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -14.27%E -1.50%K -1.68%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-05 23:20
Betway🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 89.55%EV -4.48%E -4.26%K -89.51%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.45%EV -18.78%E -2.09%K -2.35%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-05 23:05
Caesars🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 89.64%EV -5.39%E -5.18%K -134.63%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.36%EV -18.78%E -2.09%K -2.35%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-05 23:03
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig◎1.07I 93.46%NM 91.66%11.76I 8.50%NM 8.34%2.0%2026-09-05 23:40
ProphetX◎1.05I 95.24%NM 89.76%9.20I 10.87%NM 10.24%6.1%2026-09-05 23:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%98.0%2026-09-01 20:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%98.0%2026-09-01 20:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%98.0%2026-09-01 21:00