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Michigan Wolverines v Penn State Nittany Lions
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Michigan Wolverines (Local)
Prediction 66.59%1.50fair odd
EV -1.44%
Edge -0.973%
Kelly -3.00%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.48
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.37%66.44%66.67%67.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.361.421.431.4873.53%70.39%69.93%67.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Penn State Nittany Lions (Visit)
Prediction 33.41%2.99fair odd
EV -1.45%
Edge -0.493%
Kelly -0.746%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.95
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.24%33.56%33.33%35.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.622.832.852.9538.17%35.38%35.09%33.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Michigan Wolverines (Local): 66.59%; Penn State Nittany Lions (Visit): 33.41%. For Michigan Wolverines (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.50. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.48, with an expected value of -1.44%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (44 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -1.44%E -0.973%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -9.81%E -3.63%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-10-17 19:30 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 65.57%EV -2.11%E -1.43%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.43%EV -6.46%E -2.31%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-10-17 15:35 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 66.28%EV -2.77%E -1.90%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 33.72%EV -4.13%E -1.44%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-10-17 18:35 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -3.44%E -2.37%K -7.64%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -6.46%E -2.31%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-17 12:50 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -3.44%E -2.37%K -7.64%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -8.14%E -2.96%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-17 14:45 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -3.44%E -2.37%K -7.64%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -9.81%E -3.63%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-17 15:00 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.63%EV -3.44%E -2.37%K -7.64%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.37%EV -11.48%E -4.33%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-17 19:40 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.37%EV -3.44%E -2.37%K -7.64%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.63%EV -12.48%E -4.76%K -7.70%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-10-17 19:41 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -4.10%E -2.85%K -9.33%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -4.79%E -1.68%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-10-17 18:24 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -4.10%E -2.85%K -9.33%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -6.46%E -2.31%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-17 19:30 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -4.10%E -2.85%K -9.33%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -6.46%E -2.31%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-17 19:30 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 67.35%EV -4.77%E -3.34%K -11.09%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.65%EV -1.45%E -0.493%K -0.746%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-10-17 19:44 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 67.35%EV -4.77%E -3.34%K -11.09%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.65%EV -1.45%E -0.493%K -0.746%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-10-17 19:30 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 67.35%EV -4.77%E -3.34%K -11.09%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.65%EV -1.45%E -0.493%K -0.746%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-10-17 19:30 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -4.77%E -3.34%K -11.09%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -3.12%E -1.08%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-10-16 15:24 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -4.77%E -3.34%K -11.09%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -3.12%E -1.08%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-10-17 18:35 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -4.77%E -3.34%K -11.09%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -3.12%E -1.08%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-10-17 18:34 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -4.77%E -3.34%K -11.09%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -3.12%E -1.08%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-10-17 18:35 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -4.77%E -3.34%K -11.09%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -3.12%E -1.08%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-10-17 18:34 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -4.77%E -3.34%K -11.09%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -3.12%E -1.08%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-10-17 18:35 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -4.77%E -3.34%K -11.09%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -3.12%E -1.08%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-10-17 19:29 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.82%EV -4.77%E -3.34%K -11.09%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.18%EV -3.79%E -1.32%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-17 19:45 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -4.77%E -3.34%K -11.09%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -4.79%E -1.68%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-17 15:45 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -4.77%E -3.34%K -11.09%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -4.79%E -1.68%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-17 01:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -4.77%E -3.34%K -11.09%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -8.14%E -2.96%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-17 19:30 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -5.44%E -3.83%K -12.94%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -4.79%E -1.68%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-17 19:30 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.51%EV -5.44%E -3.83%K -12.94%G +0.000% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 33.49%EV -5.80%E -2.06%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-17 19:44 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -5.44%E -3.83%K -12.94%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -6.46%E -2.31%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-17 01:20 |
| picklebet_au🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -5.44%E -3.83%K -12.94%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -6.46%E -2.31%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-17 18:35 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.67%EV -6.10%E -4.33%K -14.88%G +0.000% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 33.33%EV -5.80%E -2.06%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-17 19:30 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -6.77%E -4.83%K -16.92%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -6.46%E -2.31%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-10-17 19:30 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -6.77%E -4.83%K -16.92%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -6.46%E -2.31%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-10-17 19:43 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -6.77%E -4.83%K -16.92%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -8.14%E -2.96%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-10-17 19:45 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -6.77%E -4.83%K -16.92%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -8.14%E -2.96%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-10-17 19:30 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -6.77%E -4.83%K -16.92%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -8.14%E -2.96%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-10-17 19:30 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -6.77%E -4.83%K -16.92%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -9.81%E -3.63%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-10-17 03:54 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 67.22%EV -7.43%E -5.35%K -19.06%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.78%EV -4.79%E -1.68%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-17 18:35 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -8.10%E -5.87%K -21.31%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -3.12%E -1.08%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-17 18:35 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -8.10%E -5.87%K -21.31%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -3.12%E -1.08%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-17 18:35 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -8.10%E -5.87%K -21.31%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -3.12%E -1.08%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-17 18:35 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -8.10%E -5.87%K -21.31%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -3.12%E -1.08%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-17 18:35 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -8.10%E -5.87%K -21.31%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -3.12%E -1.08%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-17 18:35 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 67.54%EV -8.77%E -6.40%K -23.69%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.46%EV -4.79%E -1.68%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-10-17 19:45 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 66.50%EV -9.43%E -6.93%K -26.20%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.50%EV -9.81%E -3.63%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-10-17 19:45 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (9)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig◎ | 1.49I 67.11%NM 66.74% | 2.99I 33.44%NM 33.26% | 0.6% | 2026-10-17 19:45 |
| Polymarket◎ | 1.49I 67.11%NM 66.37% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.63% | 1.1% | 2026-10-16 16:39 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.49I 67.11%NM 66.37% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.63% | 1.1% | 2026-10-17 07:15 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.48I 67.57%NM 66.21% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.79% | 2.1% | 2026-10-17 19:29 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.49I 67.11%NM 65.59% | 2.84I 35.21%NM 34.41% | 2.3% | 2026-10-17 19:45 |
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.82% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 34.18% | 2.7% | 2026-10-17 19:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.36% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 33.64% | 3.9% | 2026-10-17 19:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.04% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 33.96% | 4.4% | 2026-10-17 19:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.20% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 33.80% | 4.9% | 2026-10-17 19:45 |