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Michigan State Spartans v Northwestern Wildcats
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Michigan State Spartans (Local)
Prediction 28.43%3.52fair odd
EV +2.33%
Edge +0.648%
Kelly +0.898%
Growth +0.021%
assuming max odds 3.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.38%28.75%28.34%32.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.363.403.6034.48%29.80%29.41%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Northwestern Wildcats (Visit)
Prediction 71.57%1.40fair odd
EV +1.64%
Edge +1.15%
Kelly +3.89%
Growth +0.064%
assuming max odds 1.42
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
67.87%71.25%71.66%73.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.251.321.331.4280.00%75.51%75.19%70.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Michigan State Spartans (Local): 28.43%; Northwestern Wildcats (Visit): 71.57%. For Michigan State Spartans (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.52. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.33%.
Sportsbook Odds (48 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV -14.72%E -4.91%K -7.36%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV +1.64%E +1.15%K +3.89%G +0.064% | 3.8% | 2026-10-17 15:54 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV -10.46%E -3.32%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -1.23%E -0.890%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-10-17 15:55 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -10.46%E -3.32%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -2.66%E -1.96%K -7.39%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-17 15:54 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -17.56%E -6.06%K -9.24%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.08%EV -2.66%E -1.96%K -7.39%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-10-17 15:46 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -17.56%E -6.06%K -9.24%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.08%EV -2.66%E -1.96%K -7.39%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-10-17 15:48 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.03%EV -6.19%E -1.88%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.97%EV -3.38%E -2.50%K -9.64%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-10-17 15:55 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -9.04%E -2.82%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -3.38%E -2.50%K -9.64%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-17 15:54 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -9.04%E -2.82%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -3.38%E -2.50%K -9.64%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-17 15:54 |
| Everygame🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.97%EV -1.93%E -0.559%K -0.788%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 72.03%EV -4.09%E -3.05%K -12.03%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-10-14 19:06 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.41I 29.33%NM 28.21%EV -3.07%E -0.899%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.79%EV -4.09%E -3.05%K -12.03%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-10-17 11:15 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.41I 29.33%NM 28.21%EV -3.07%E -0.899%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.79%EV -4.09%E -3.05%K -12.03%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-10-17 11:14 |
| Caesars🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.27%EV -3.35%E -0.986%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.73%EV -4.09%E -3.05%K -12.03%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-10-15 19:05 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -7.62%E -2.34%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -4.09%E -3.05%K -12.03%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-17 15:54 |
| TAB🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52%EV -9.04%E -2.82%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.48%EV -4.09%E -3.05%K -12.03%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-17 15:45 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.56I 28.09%NM 27.20%EV +1.20%E +0.336%K +0.467%G +0.006% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 72.80%EV -4.81%E -3.61%K -14.57%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-10-17 15:45 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.54%EV -0.509%E -0.145%K -0.204%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 72.46%EV -4.81%E -3.61%K -14.57%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-10-17 15:49 |
| GTbets🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.82%EV -1.93%E -0.559%K -0.788%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 72.18%EV -4.81%E -3.61%K -14.57%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-10-17 15:55 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -3.35%E -0.986%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -4.81%E -3.61%K -14.57%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-10-17 15:45 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -3.35%E -0.986%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -4.81%E -3.61%K -14.57%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-10-17 15:00 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -3.35%E -0.986%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -4.81%E -3.61%K -14.57%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-10-17 15:55 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -4.77%E -1.42%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -4.81%E -3.61%K -14.57%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-17 15:55 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -4.77%E -1.42%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -4.81%E -3.61%K -14.57%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-15 09:35 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -6.19%E -1.88%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -4.81%E -3.61%K -14.57%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-17 12:10 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -7.62%E -2.34%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -4.81%E -3.61%K -14.57%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-17 15:54 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.23I 30.96%NM 29.17%EV -8.18%E -2.53%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.83%EV -4.81%E -3.61%K -14.57%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-17 15:54 |
| ReBet🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.39%EV -0.509%E -0.145%K -0.204%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.61%EV -5.52%E -4.18%K -17.26%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-10-17 15:54 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -1.93%E -0.559%K -0.788%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -5.52%E -4.18%K -17.26%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-17 13:05 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -1.93%E -0.559%K -0.788%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -5.52%E -4.18%K -17.26%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-17 15:54 |
| Fliff🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -4.77%E -1.42%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -5.52%E -4.18%K -17.26%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-17 15:55 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.26I 30.67%NM 28.82%EV -7.33%E -2.25%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.18%EV -5.52%E -4.18%K -17.26%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-17 15:54 |
| BetUS🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV +2.33%E +0.648%K +0.898%G +0.021% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -6.24%E -4.76%K -20.12%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-10-17 15:05 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.95%EV +0.912%E +0.257%K +0.358%G +0.003% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.05%EV -6.24%E -4.76%K -20.12%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-10-17 15:05 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 3.44I 29.07%NM 27.58%EV -2.21%E -0.644%K -0.908%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.42%EV -6.24%E -4.76%K -20.12%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-17 15:45 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -0.509%E -0.145%K -0.204%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -6.95%E -5.35%K -23.18%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-17 15:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -0.509%E -0.145%K -0.204%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -6.95%E -5.35%K -23.18%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-17 15:54 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -0.509%E -0.145%K -0.204%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -6.95%E -5.35%K -23.18%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-17 15:54 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -0.509%E -0.145%K -0.204%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -6.95%E -5.35%K -23.18%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-17 15:54 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -0.509%E -0.145%K -0.204%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -6.95%E -5.35%K -23.18%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-17 15:55 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -0.509%E -0.145%K -0.204%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -6.95%E -5.35%K -23.18%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-17 15:55 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -0.509%E -0.145%K -0.204%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -6.95%E -5.35%K -23.18%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-17 15:55 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -0.509%E -0.145%K -0.204%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -6.95%E -5.35%K -23.18%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-17 15:54 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -3.35%E -0.986%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -6.95%E -5.35%K -23.18%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-17 08:35 |
| picklebet_au🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -3.35%E -0.986%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -6.95%E -5.35%K -23.18%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-17 15:55 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.32I 30.12%NM 28.14%EV -5.63%E -1.69%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.86%EV -6.95%E -5.35%K -23.18%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-17 13:05 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -9.04%E -2.82%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -6.95%E -5.35%K -23.18%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-10-17 15:54 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -9.04%E -2.82%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -6.95%E -5.35%K -23.18%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-10-17 15:54 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV +2.33%E +0.648%K +0.898%G +0.021% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -7.67%E -5.95%K -26.45%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-17 14:20 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.78%EV -7.62%E -2.34%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.22%EV -10.53%E -8.43%K -42.13%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-10-17 14:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (9)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.46% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 70.54% | -0.2% | 2026-10-17 15:55 |
| Novig◎ | 3.77I 26.53%NM 26.37% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.63% | 0.6% | 2026-10-17 15:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.15% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 72.85% | 0.9% | 2026-10-17 15:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.15% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 72.85% | 0.9% | 2026-10-17 15:55 |
| Kalshi◎ | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.73% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.27% | 1.1% | 2026-10-17 04:20 |
| Polymarket◎ | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.73% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.27% | 1.1% | 2026-10-17 15:05 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.00% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.00% | 1.5% | 2026-10-17 15:55 |
| ProphetX◎ | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.27% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 72.73% | 1.9% | 2026-10-17 15:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.27% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 72.73% | 1.9% | 2026-10-17 15:55 |