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Michigan State Spartans v Illinois Fighting Illini
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Michigan State Spartans (Local)
Prediction 43.99%2.27fair odd
EV -1.02%
Edge -0.452%
Kelly -0.814%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.89%43.98%44.00%46.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.172.182.2550.00%46.17%45.87%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Illinois Fighting Illini (Visit)
Prediction 56.01%1.79fair odd
EV -1.99%
Edge -1.14%
Kelly -2.65%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.33%56.02%56.00%57.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.641.691.691.7560.98%59.04%59.17%57.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Michigan State Spartans (Local): 43.99%; Illinois Fighting Illini (Visit): 56.01%. For Michigan State Spartans (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.27. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.25, with an expected value of -1.02%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (47 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bovada🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -1.02%E -0.452%K -0.814%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -5.35%E -3.16%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-10-10 19:23 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -1.02%E -0.452%K -0.814%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -5.35%E -3.16%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-10-10 19:15 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 43.54%EV -1.90%E -0.851%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 56.46%EV -3.67%E -2.13%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-10-10 15:30 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -3.22%E -1.46%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -4.23%E -2.47%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-10-10 15:49 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -3.22%E -1.46%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -4.23%E -2.47%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-10-05 15:09 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -3.22%E -1.46%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -4.23%E -2.47%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -3.22%E -1.46%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -4.23%E -2.47%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-10-10 19:10 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -3.22%E -1.46%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -4.23%E -2.47%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-10-10 19:23 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -3.22%E -1.46%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -4.79%E -2.82%K -6.84%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-10-10 14:05 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -3.22%E -1.46%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -4.79%E -2.82%K -6.84%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-10-10 14:05 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -3.22%E -1.46%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -4.79%E -2.82%K -6.84%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-10-05 13:52 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -3.22%E -1.46%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -5.35%E -3.16%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-10-10 14:04 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -3.22%E -1.46%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -5.35%E -3.16%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-10-10 14:01 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -3.22%E -1.46%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.91%E -3.52%K -8.69%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-10 14:01 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -3.22%E -1.46%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.91%E -3.52%K -8.69%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -3.22%E -1.46%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.91%E -3.52%K -8.69%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -3.22%E -1.46%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.91%E -3.52%K -8.69%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.22%E -1.46%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.47%E -3.87%K -9.65%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.22%E -1.46%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.47%E -3.87%K -9.65%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.22%E -1.46%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.47%E -3.87%K -9.65%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV -4.10%E -1.88%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -4.79%E -2.82%K -6.84%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-10 19:10 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.67%EV -4.10%E -1.88%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.33%EV -5.35%E -3.16%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-10 19:10 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.23%EV -4.10%E -1.88%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.77%EV -7.03%E -4.23%K -10.65%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.23%EV -4.10%E -1.88%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.77%EV -7.03%E -4.23%K -10.65%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-10 14:01 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 44.36%EV -4.54%E -2.09%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 55.64%EV -3.11%E -1.80%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 44.36%EV -4.54%E -2.09%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 55.64%EV -3.11%E -1.80%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -5.42%E -2.52%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.23%E -2.47%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -5.42%E -2.52%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.23%E -2.47%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-10 19:24 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -5.42%E -2.52%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.23%E -2.47%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.42%E -2.52%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.79%E -2.82%K -6.84%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-10 19:05 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.42%E -2.52%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.79%E -2.82%K -6.84%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-05 14:10 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.42%E -2.52%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.79%E -2.82%K -6.84%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-10 17:25 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.42%E -2.52%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.79%E -2.82%K -6.84%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.42%E -2.52%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.79%E -2.82%K -6.84%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-10 14:01 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -5.42%E -2.52%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -5.35%E -3.16%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-10 17:30 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -5.42%E -2.52%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -5.35%E -3.16%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -5.42%E -2.52%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -5.91%E -3.52%K -8.69%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-10 14:05 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -5.42%E -2.52%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -5.91%E -3.52%K -8.69%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-10 14:05 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -5.42%E -2.52%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -5.91%E -3.52%K -8.69%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-10 15:30 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.70%EV -5.86%E -2.74%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 55.30%EV -3.11%E -1.80%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-10-10 19:15 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.13I 46.95%NM 44.53%EV -6.30%E -2.96%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.47%EV -4.23%E -2.47%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-10 19:25 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.11I 47.39%NM 44.47%EV -7.18%E -3.40%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.53%EV -5.35%E -3.16%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-10-10 19:25 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -7.62%E -3.63%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -7.59%E -4.60%K -11.67%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-10-10 19:25 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.09I 47.85%NM 44.71%EV -8.06%E -3.85%K -7.39%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.29%EV -5.35%E -3.16%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-10 19:20 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.09%EV -8.50%E -4.08%K -7.87%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 55.91%EV -8.15%E -4.97%K -12.73%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-10-10 15:33 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -12.02%E -6.01%K -12.02%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -1.99%E -1.14%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-10-10 19:18 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.50%EV -12.02%E -6.01%K -12.02%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.50%EV -6.47%E -3.87%K -9.65%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-10-10 17:30 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (9)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 2.35I 42.55%NM 42.54% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 57.46% | 0.0% | 2026-10-10 19:20 |
| Novig◎ | 2.30I 43.48%NM 43.21% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 56.79% | 0.6% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.30I 43.48%NM 43.21% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 56.79% | 0.6% | 2026-10-10 14:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.30I 43.48%NM 43.21% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 56.79% | 0.6% | 2026-10-10 14:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.30I 43.48%NM 43.21% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 56.79% | 0.6% | 2026-10-10 14:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.30I 43.48%NM 43.21% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 56.79% | 0.6% | 2026-10-10 14:50 |
| ProphetX◎ | 2.30I 43.48%NM 43.07% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 56.93% | 0.9% | 2026-10-10 19:20 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.27I 44.05%NM 43.53% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 56.47% | 1.2% | 2026-10-05 14:10 |
| Polymarket◎ | 2.27I 44.05%NM 43.53% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 56.47% | 1.2% | 2026-10-10 14:01 |