Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Michigan State Spartans v Illinois Fighting Illini

2026-10-10 19:30 UTC — NCAAF

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

41%

59%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Michigan State Spartans (Local)

Prediction 40.91%2.44fair odd

EV -3.85%

Edge -1.64%

Kelly -2.85%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

40.81%40.91%40.91%41.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.252.292.292.3544.44%43.64%43.67%42.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Illinois Fighting Illini (Visit)

Prediction 59.09%1.69fair odd

EV -4.28%

Edge -2.64%

Kelly -6.90%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

58.44%59.09%59.09%59.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.571.601.601.6263.69%62.61%62.50%61.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Michigan State Spartans (Local): 40.91%; Illinois Fighting Illini (Visit): 59.09%. For Michigan State Spartans (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.44. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.35, with an expected value of -3.85%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Fanatics🎯	2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -3.85%E -1.64%K -2.85%G +0.000%	1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -4.28%E -2.64%K -6.90%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-10-04 08:10
FanDuel🎯	2.34I 42.74%NM 40.91%EV -4.26%E -1.82%K -3.18%G +0.000%	1.62I 61.73%NM 59.09%EV -4.28%E -2.64%K -6.90%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-10-04 07:10
Unibet (UK)🎯	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.90%E -2.56%K -4.54%G +0.000%	1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.46%E -3.41%K -9.10%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-10-04 07:14
SportsBet🎯	2.29I 43.67%NM 40.83%EV -6.31%E -2.75%K -4.89%G +0.000%	1.58I 63.29%NM 59.17%EV -6.64%E -4.20%K -11.45%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-10-04 07:10
ReBet🎯	2.26I 44.25%NM 41.30%EV -7.54%E -3.33%K -5.98%G +0.000%	1.59I 62.89%NM 58.70%EV -6.05%E -3.81%K -10.26%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-10-04 07:16
William Hill🎯	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -7.94%E -3.53%K -6.36%G +0.000%	1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -5.46%E -3.41%K -9.10%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-10-04 07:15
LeoVegas🎯	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -7.94%E -3.53%K -6.36%G +0.000%	1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -7.23%E -4.61%K -12.69%G +0.000%	8.1%	2026-10-04 07:15

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Kalshi◎	2.38I 42.02%NM 40.35%	1.61I 62.11%NM 59.65%	4.1%	2026-10-04 08:05
Novig◎	2.22I 45.05%NM 42.64%	1.65I 60.61%NM 57.36%	5.7%	2026-10-04 08:00