Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Marshall Thundering Herd v Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders

2026-09-12 23:00 UTC — NCAAF

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

88%

12%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Marshall Thundering Herd (Local)

Prediction 87.56%1.14fair odd

EV -1.93%

Edge -1.73%

Kelly -16.10%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.12

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

83.46%87.05%87.56%88.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.071.101.101.1293.46%91.09%90.91%89.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (Visit)

Prediction 12.44%8.04fair odd

EV +5.73%

Edge +0.675%

Kelly +0.765%

Growth +0.044%

assuming max odds 8.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

11.18%12.95%12.44%16.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

5.607.077.258.5017.86%14.14%13.79%11.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Marshall Thundering Herd (Local): 87.56%; Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (Visit): 12.44%. For Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.04. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 8.50, producing a positive expected value of +5.73%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
theScore Bet🎯	1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -6.31%E -5.90%K -90.14%G +0.000%	8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV +5.73%E +0.675%K +0.765%G +0.044%	5.2%	2026-09-06 19:09
BetMGM🎯	1.10I 90.91%NM 87.91%EV -3.68%E -3.35%K -36.83%G +0.000%	8.00I 12.50%NM 12.09%EV -0.486%E -0.061%K -0.069%G +0.000%	3.4%	2026-09-06 18:53
Fliff🎯	1.09I 91.74%NM 87.53%EV -4.56%E -4.18%K -50.65%G +0.000%	7.65I 13.07%NM 12.47%EV -4.84%E -0.633%K -0.728%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-09-06 18:55
DraftKings🎯	1.10I 90.91%NM 87.21%EV -3.68%E -3.35%K -36.83%G +0.000%	7.50I 13.33%NM 12.79%EV -6.71%E -0.894%K -1.03%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-09-06 16:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	1.09I 91.74%NM 86.93%EV -4.56%E -4.18%K -50.65%G +0.000%	7.25I 13.79%NM 13.07%EV -9.82%E -1.35%K -1.57%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-09-06 18:50
Neds🎯	1.09I 91.74%NM 86.93%EV -4.56%E -4.18%K -50.65%G +0.000%	7.25I 13.79%NM 13.07%EV -9.82%E -1.35%K -1.57%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-09-06 18:50
Unibet (UK)🎯	1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -1.93%E -1.73%K -16.10%G +0.000%	6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -25.36%E -4.23%K -5.07%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-09-06 19:00
ReBet🎯	1.11I 90.09%NM 84.17%EV -2.81%E -2.53%K -25.52%G +0.000%	5.90I 16.95%NM 15.83%EV -26.61%E -4.51%K -5.43%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-09-06 18:55
LeoVegas🎯	1.11I 90.09%NM 83.46%EV -2.81%E -2.53%K -25.52%G +0.000%	5.60I 17.86%NM 16.54%EV -30.34%E -5.42%K -6.60%G +0.000%	7.9%	2026-09-06 19:00

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Kalshi◎	1.14I 87.72%NM 85.40%	6.67I 14.99%NM 14.60%	2.7%	2026-09-06 19:15
Novig◎	1.10I 90.91%NM 87.91%	8.00I 12.50%NM 12.09%	3.4%	2026-09-06 19:30