Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Louisville Cardinals v Florida State Seminoles

2026-10-09 23:00 UTC — NCAAF

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Louisville Cardinals (Local)

Prediction 68.00%1.47fair odd
EV -3.43%
Edge -2.42%
Kelly -8.17%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
67.51%67.98%68.03%68.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.361.391.401.4273.53%71.84%71.43%70.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Florida State Seminoles (Visit)

Prediction 32.00%3.13fair odd
EV -3.37%
Edge -1.12%
Kelly -1.67%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.19%32.02%31.97%32.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.852.962.953.0235.09%33.79%33.90%33.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Louisville Cardinals (Local): 68.00%; Florida State Seminoles (Visit): 32.00%. For Florida State Seminoles (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.13. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.02, with an expected value of -3.37%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.51%EV -3.43%E -2.42%K -8.17%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.49%EV -5.61%E -1.90%K -2.88%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-04 06:35
Fanatics🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 68.03%EV -4.11%E -2.92%K -10.03%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.97%EV -4.01%E -1.34%K -2.01%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-04 06:00
FanDuel🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.33%EV -4.79%E -3.42%K -11.98%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 31.67%EV -3.37%E -1.12%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-04 06:20
betfred_uk🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.79%E -3.42%K -11.98%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -4.01%E -1.34%K -2.01%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-04 06:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.79%E -3.42%K -11.98%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -4.01%E -1.34%K -2.01%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-04 06:25
Coolbet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.79%E -3.42%K -11.98%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -4.01%E -1.34%K -2.01%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-04 06:35
Bet Right🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.79%E -3.42%K -11.98%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -5.61%E -1.90%K -2.88%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-04 06:25
Betsson🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.79%E -3.42%K -11.98%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -5.61%E -1.90%K -2.88%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-04 07:05
Unibet (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.79%E -3.42%K -11.98%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -5.61%E -1.90%K -2.88%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-04 07:00
Betr (AU)🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 67.97%EV -5.47%E -3.94%K -14.03%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.03%EV -5.61%E -1.90%K -2.88%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-04 07:05
ReBet🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 67.52%EV -5.47%E -3.94%K -14.03%G +0.000%2.89I 34.60%NM 32.48%EV -7.53%E -2.61%K -3.99%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-04 06:59
NordicBet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.98%EV -6.15%E -4.46%K -16.19%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 32.02%EV -6.25%E -2.13%K -3.24%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-04 07:05
SportsBet🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.29%EV -6.83%E -4.99%K -18.47%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.71%EV -5.61%E -1.90%K -2.88%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-04 06:20
William Hill🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -7.51%E -5.52%K -20.87%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -4.01%E -1.34%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-04 05:45
LeoVegas🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.70%EV -7.51%E -5.52%K -20.87%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.30%EV -8.81%E -3.09%K -4.76%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-04 07:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.47I 68.03%NM 67.33%3.03I 33.00%NM 32.67%1.0%2026-10-04 08:15
Novig◎1.42I 70.42%NM 68.09%3.03I 33.00%NM 31.91%3.4%2026-10-04 08:20