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Louisville Cardinals v Florida State Seminoles
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Louisville Cardinals (Local)
Prediction 62.30%1.61fair odd
EV -2.18%
Edge -1.39%
Kelly -3.83%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.57
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.25%62.32%62.24%63.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.471.531.531.5768.03%65.56%65.36%63.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Florida State Seminoles (Visit)
Prediction 37.70%2.65fair odd
EV -0.858%
Edge -0.326%
Kelly -0.527%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.63
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.32%37.68%37.76%38.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.452.522.502.6340.82%39.72%40.00%38.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Louisville Cardinals (Local): 62.30%; Florida State Seminoles (Visit): 37.70%. For Florida State Seminoles (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.65. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.63, with an expected value of -0.858%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (42 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 61.43%EV -2.18%E -1.39%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.57%EV -5.76%E -2.30%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-10-05 13:40 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 62.23%EV -2.81%E -1.80%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 2.57I 38.91%NM 37.77%EV -3.12%E -1.21%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-10-05 13:35 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 62.23%EV -2.81%E -1.80%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 2.57I 38.91%NM 37.77%EV -3.12%E -1.21%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-10-05 13:35 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 62.04%EV -2.81%E -1.80%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.96%EV -3.87%E -1.52%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-10-05 13:40 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -3.43%E -2.21%K -6.24%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -7.64%E -3.12%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-05 15:15 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.80%EV -4.05%E -2.63%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.20%EV -1.99%E -0.765%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-10-05 13:34 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.25%EV -4.05%E -2.63%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 2.54I 39.37%NM 37.75%EV -4.25%E -1.67%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-10-05 15:15 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.07%EV -4.05%E -2.63%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 37.93%EV -5.01%E -1.99%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-10-05 13:35 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -4.68%E -3.06%K -8.82%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -1.99%E -0.765%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-10-05 13:40 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -4.68%E -3.06%K -8.82%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -1.99%E -0.765%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-10-05 13:45 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -4.68%E -3.06%K -8.82%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -3.87%E -1.52%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-10-05 13:39 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -4.68%E -3.06%K -8.82%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -3.87%E -1.52%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-10-05 13:39 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -4.68%E -3.06%K -8.82%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -3.87%E -1.52%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-10-05 15:15 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.68%E -3.06%K -8.82%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.76%E -2.30%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-05 13:45 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.68%E -3.06%K -8.82%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.76%E -2.30%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-05 13:39 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.68%E -3.06%K -8.82%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.76%E -2.30%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-05 13:39 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.68%E -3.06%K -8.82%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.76%E -2.30%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-05 13:39 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.68%E -3.06%K -8.82%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.76%E -2.30%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-05 13:40 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.68%E -3.06%K -8.82%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.76%E -2.30%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-05 13:39 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.68%E -3.06%K -8.82%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.76%E -2.30%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-05 15:15 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.68%E -3.06%K -8.82%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.76%E -2.30%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-05 15:15 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.85%EV -4.68%E -3.06%K -8.82%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.15%EV -6.51%E -2.63%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-05 13:39 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.85%EV -4.68%E -3.06%K -8.82%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.15%EV -6.51%E -2.63%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-05 13:39 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.85%EV -4.68%E -3.06%K -8.82%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.15%EV -6.51%E -2.63%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-05 13:39 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.85%EV -4.68%E -3.06%K -8.82%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.15%EV -6.51%E -2.63%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-05 13:40 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.85%EV -4.68%E -3.06%K -8.82%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.15%EV -6.51%E -2.63%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-05 13:39 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -4.68%E -3.06%K -8.82%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -7.64%E -3.12%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-05 15:15 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 63.11%EV -5.30%E -3.49%K -10.19%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.89%EV -1.99%E -0.765%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-10-05 13:55 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -5.30%E -3.49%K -10.19%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -3.87%E -1.52%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-05 13:45 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -5.30%E -3.49%K -10.19%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -3.87%E -1.52%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-05 13:44 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -5.30%E -3.49%K -10.19%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -5.76%E -2.30%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-05 13:45 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.81%EV -5.30%E -3.49%K -10.19%G +0.000% | 2.46I 40.65%NM 38.19%EV -7.27%E -2.95%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-05 13:45 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -5.92%E -3.92%K -11.61%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV -5.76%E -2.30%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-05 13:44 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.68%EV -6.54%E -4.36%K -13.09%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.32%EV -0.858%E -0.326%K -0.527%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-05 13:38 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -6.54%E -4.36%K -13.09%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -3.87%E -1.52%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-05 13:35 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.59%EV -6.54%E -4.36%K -13.09%G +0.000% | 2.51I 39.84%NM 37.41%EV -5.38%E -2.14%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-10-05 13:45 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.54%E -4.36%K -13.09%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -5.76%E -2.30%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-05 13:34 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.22%EV -6.54%E -4.36%K -13.09%G +0.000% | 2.47I 40.49%NM 37.78%EV -6.89%E -2.79%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-10-05 13:35 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -6.54%E -4.36%K -13.09%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -7.64%E -3.12%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-05 15:15 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -6.54%E -4.36%K -13.09%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -7.64%E -3.12%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-05 15:15 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 62.84%EV -7.17%E -4.81%K -14.63%G +0.000% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 37.16%EV -5.01%E -1.99%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-05 13:35 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 62.97%EV -8.41%E -5.72%K -17.90%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.03%EV -5.76%E -2.30%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-10-05 13:50 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.51I 66.23%NM 66.14% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 33.86% | 0.1% | 2026-10-04 17:45 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.56I 64.10%NM 63.38% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 36.62% | 1.1% | 2026-10-05 14:05 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.56I 64.10%NM 63.38% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 36.62% | 1.1% | 2026-10-05 14:50 |
| Polymarket◎ | 1.56I 64.10%NM 63.38% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 36.62% | 1.1% | 2026-10-05 13:45 |
| Novig◎ | 1.56I 64.10%NM 63.12% | 2.67I 37.45%NM 36.88% | 1.6% | 2026-10-05 15:10 |