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Illinois Fighting Illini v Duke Blue Devils
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Illinois Fighting Illini (Local)
Prediction 67.80%1.47fair odd
EV +7.80%
Edge +4.91%
Kelly +13.22%
Growth +1.03%
assuming max odds 1.59
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.13%67.19%67.72%68.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.381.421.421.5972.46%70.29%70.42%62.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Duke Blue Devils (Visit)
Prediction 32.20%3.11fair odd
EV -0.177%
Edge -0.057%
Kelly -0.084%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.11%32.81%32.28%40.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.872.903.1043.48%34.85%34.48%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Illinois Fighting Illini (Local): 67.80%; Duke Blue Devils (Visit): 32.20%. For Illinois Fighting Illini (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.47. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.59, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.80%.
Sportsbook Odds (42 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV +7.80%E +4.91%K +13.22%G +1.03% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -25.94%E -11.28%K -19.95%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-12 19:34 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV +6.44%E +4.10%K +11.31%G +0.729% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -24.33%E -10.35%K -18.02%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-12 19:34 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -1.69%E -1.17%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -13.06%E -4.84%K -7.68%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-12 19:33 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -2.37%E -1.65%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -9.84%E -3.51%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -2.37%E -1.65%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -9.84%E -3.51%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-12 18:35 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -2.37%E -1.65%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -9.84%E -3.51%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-12 18:35 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -2.37%E -1.65%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -11.45%E -4.16%K -6.54%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-12 18:35 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 67.72%EV -3.05%E -2.13%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.28%EV -3.40%E -1.13%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-09-12 18:40 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 67.57%EV -3.05%E -2.13%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 32.43%EV -4.04%E -1.36%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-09-12 19:29 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 67.35%EV -3.05%E -2.13%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.65%EV -5.01%E -1.70%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-09-12 19:30 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -3.05%E -2.13%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -11.45%E -4.16%K -6.54%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-12 18:35 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -3.05%E -2.13%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -11.45%E -4.16%K -6.54%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-12 19:35 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -3.05%E -2.13%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -11.45%E -4.16%K -6.54%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-12 19:34 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -3.05%E -2.13%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -11.45%E -4.16%K -6.54%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-12 19:35 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -3.05%E -2.13%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -11.45%E -4.16%K -6.54%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-12 19:34 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 68.09%EV -3.73%E -2.62%K -8.87%G +0.000% | 3.03I 33.00%NM 31.91%EV -2.43%E -0.802%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-09-12 19:24 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -3.73%E -2.62%K -8.87%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV -3.40%E -1.13%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-09-12 18:46 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.65%EV -3.73%E -2.62%K -8.87%G +0.000% | 2.97I 33.67%NM 32.35%EV -4.36%E -1.47%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-12 18:44 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -3.73%E -2.62%K -8.87%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -6.62%E -2.28%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-12 19:20 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -3.73%E -2.62%K -8.87%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -6.62%E -2.28%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-12 19:20 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -3.73%E -2.62%K -8.87%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -6.62%E -2.28%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-12 18:35 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.19%EV -3.73%E -2.62%K -8.87%G +0.000% | 2.78I 35.97%NM 33.81%EV -10.48%E -3.77%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-12 18:35 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.39%EV -4.40%E -3.12%K -10.74%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.61%EV -1.79%E -0.586%K -0.872%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-09-12 18:50 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.24%EV -4.40%E -3.12%K -10.74%G +0.000% | 3.03I 33.00%NM 31.76%EV -2.43%E -0.802%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.24%EV -4.40%E -3.12%K -10.74%G +0.000% | 3.03I 33.00%NM 31.76%EV -2.43%E -0.802%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.03%EV -4.40%E -3.12%K -10.74%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.97%EV -3.40%E -1.13%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-12 19:10 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.51%EV -4.40%E -3.12%K -10.74%G +0.000% | 2.93I 34.13%NM 32.49%EV -5.65%E -1.93%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-12 19:24 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.90%EV -4.40%E -3.12%K -10.74%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.10%EV -8.23%E -2.89%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-12 19:35 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.59%EV -4.40%E -3.12%K -10.74%G +0.000% | 2.81I 35.59%NM 33.41%EV -9.52%E -3.39%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-12 19:30 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.11%EV -4.40%E -3.12%K -10.74%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.89%EV -11.45%E -4.16%K -6.54%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-12 19:35 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.89%EV -5.08%E -3.63%K -12.70%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.11%EV -0.177%E -0.057%K -0.084%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-09-12 18:45 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.54%EV -5.08%E -3.63%K -12.70%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.46%EV -1.79%E -0.586%K -0.872%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-12 18:50 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.08%E -3.63%K -12.70%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -3.40%E -1.13%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-12 18:35 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -5.08%E -3.63%K -12.70%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -5.01%E -1.70%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-12 18:55 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.08%E -3.63%K -12.70%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.62%E -2.28%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-12 19:24 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.08%E -3.63%K -12.70%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.62%E -2.28%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-12 18:40 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.08%E -3.63%K -12.70%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.62%E -2.28%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-12 18:49 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 67.52%EV -5.76%E -4.14%K -14.77%G +0.000% | 2.89I 34.60%NM 32.48%EV -6.94%E -2.40%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-12 19:25 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 67.52%EV -5.76%E -4.14%K -14.77%G +0.000% | 2.89I 34.60%NM 32.48%EV -6.94%E -2.40%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-12 19:30 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -6.44%E -4.66%K -16.94%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -3.40%E -1.13%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-12 19:35 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.83%EV -6.44%E -4.66%K -16.94%G +0.000% | 2.91I 34.36%NM 32.17%EV -6.30%E -2.16%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-12 18:43 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -6.44%E -4.66%K -16.94%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -6.62%E -2.28%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-12 19:30 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig◎ | 1.46I 68.49%NM 68.19% | 3.13I 31.95%NM 31.81% | 0.4% | 2026-09-12 19:25 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.45I 68.97%NM 68.27% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 31.73% | 1.0% | 2026-09-12 18:45 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.44I 69.44%NM 68.63% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.37% | 1.2% | 2026-09-12 19:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 68.78% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.22% | 1.7% | 2026-09-12 19:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 68.78% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.22% | 1.7% | 2026-09-12 19:30 |
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.42I 70.42%NM 68.86% | 3.14I 31.85%NM 31.14% | 2.3% | 2026-09-12 19:29 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.89% | 2.96I 33.78%NM 32.11% | 5.2% | 2026-09-12 19:35 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.39I 71.94%NM 67.90% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 32.10% | 6.0% | 2026-09-12 19:35 |